Thoughts provincial and federal, international and animated

An increasingly busy work schedule has prevented me from blogging as much as I’d like, so just a few quick thoughts on matters provincial and federal to share.

*The centerpiece of John Tory’s election campaign, focusing not on the Conservative brand but rather The John Tory Team™, has been that Leadership Matters. That theme hammered in on every lawnsign, every nasty attack ad, and every speech Tory gives.

What does it say about Tory’s leadership skills, then, when he can’t even lead his own caucus during an election campaign?

Opposition to Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory's contentious policy on faith-based schools hit close to home yesterday when the first member of his caucus broke ranks by announcing he would vote against it.

How long before the ‘John Tory is Not a Leader’ ads are posted to YouTube, I wonder?

*Speaking of YouTube, the folks at ToryTube have another video posted. Somehow they’ve gotten a hold of a copy of John Tory’s diary. OMG, when I watched it I was ROTFL.



*On a more serious note, the issues page on the Working Families Coalition Web site is worth checking-out. It’s a forum for people to discuss issues of interest in the election campaign. They also have some interesting tv spots.

*New poll numbers out today from SES show the provincial race relatively unchanged. The Liberals maintain a strong lead, 41 to 33. Tory has gained popularity to tie McGuinty for Best Premier and six in 10 said they don’t know who won the debate or that no one won.

Interesting, though, was the gender gap, which SES calls a significant hurdles for the Conservatives. The ladies aren’t keen on the Tory Cons. Among women its Liberals 42%, PC 28, NDP 23, Greens 7.

*Moving onto federal matters, I plan to write more in depth on this when I have the time but I’m increasingly of the view that the Liberals, barring something shocking being in it, will have to vote against the Throne Speech. The fall isn’t perfect but it’s looking better than spring, and I don’t think we can be seen backing-down and keeping this government in power any longer. But more on that later.

As for throne speech ultimatums go though, the BQ isn’t the first to the table here. The LPC put its demands on the table two weeks ago:

1. Immediately inform NATO that Canada's combat mission in Afghanistan will end in 2009
2. Table the Clean Air and Climate Change Act in the next Parliamentary session
3. Put forward a "real" economic plan
4. Put forward a credible plan to address poverty

*I don’t know, this seems like a natural progression for the Giuliani campaign, given their strategy to date:

A spokeswoman for Rudy Giuliani says it is unfortunate that a supporter throwing a party that aims to raise $9.11 per person for the Republican's presidential campaign is asking for that amount.

*The fall tv season is beginning, tres fun. The Simpsons premier was good, I liked the continuity from the movie in the opening credits. And seeing Colbert have a cameo was fun. But The Simpsons was overshadowed by the one-hour Family Guy premiere parodying Star Wars. One of the most hilarious things I’ve seen in years. Particularly the Robot Chicken thing at the end.



*Lastly, has anyone noticed Firefox crashing a lot more lately, probably since they pushed the last update? It’s starting to really piss me off. I’d hate to go back to IE, but I may have no choice…

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Ontario campaign officially kicks-off

The Ontario provincial election campaign is officially underway, and I think the lead of this article in the Globe & Mail sums-up well how things have gone so far:

Voters got a sense of Ontario's election campaign yesterday with Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty listing his past successes in public education, and his chief opponent labeling him a promise breaker.

That pretty well sums it up. While McGuinty has been talking about his accomplishments, discussing policy and outlining goals, the Tory Conservatives have been relentlessly negative, with nasty radio ads and personal attacks on the Web. And when Tory does try to talk policy, well, it doesn’t go well and the clarifications inevitably follow.

Tory really does seem to be dialing-up the rhetoric with comments like these:

Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty is the worst promise breaker of modern times, Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory said Sunday on the eve of a 31-day provincial election campaign.

Really John, the worst promise breaker in modern history? As Seth and Amy would say, really John Tory? I mean, obviously Tory needs to hammer on the health care premium issue. I think there’s a solid counter-argument to be made on the Liberal side, given the record the Harris/Eves Conservatives left behind, but it’s fair game and a key issue for Tory.

But the worst promise breaker in history? Really? Don’t overreach John. Descend into hyperbole and people won’t take you seriously. I mean, why just in modern history? Why not the worst promise-breaker of all time, or, as comic book guy would say, worst promise-breaker ever? Maybe there’s a French king in the 1600s that was a worst promise breaker, hence the qualifier from Tory. I mean, really.

But I can see why John is jumping-on the hyperbole train and going negative hard. A new SES poll today shows, despite all the Tory hype, the Liberals lead the Conservatives (opens pdf). The poll puts the Liberals up six on the Conservatives at 40 per cent of committed voters to the Conservatives’ 34 per cent, with the NDP back at 19 per cent and Greens at 8 per cent.

Some 15 per cent are undecided meaning this is still anyone’s game, could go either way, and everyone will have to work very hard the next few weeks. But the vaunted Tory hype hasn’t translated into support yet. Also, looking at the polling period it appears Tory’s creationism faux pas, which pissed-off both the left and the right, wasn’t factored into these numbers. It will be interesting to see how that plays-out in the next poll. A new Ipsos poll also puts the Liberals in majority territory, albeit a slim one.

Tory is going to need to start having better weeks than he did last week though. He broke his promise and went fiercely negative, came-out against a new holiday for Ontarians, insulted University of Ottawa grads and students, confused everyone about creationism, and accused teachers and the government of a conspiracy to artificially boost test scores. Yeesh.

And now, Tory’s fiscal plan is being assailed as “lacking credibility.” Not a good start to the week, but it can only get better for John…right?

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

On deficits becoming surpluses and fixed election date syndrome

Late last week, the Ontario Liberal government announced a $2.3 billion surplus for the province. Meaning, if Dalton McGuinty doesn't win the election this fall, at least he'll be leaving the books in a lot better shape than he found them: a massive (and hidden) $5.6 billion deficit left behind by the Conservatives, a legacy of the Mike Harris/Ernie Eves/Jim Flaherty years.

Naturally, the inheritor of that Harris/Eves legacy, John Tory, isn't giving the Liberals any credit for cleaning-up the mess his Conservative forefathers left behind. But that's politics. All parties, however, are certainly busy explaining how they'd spend the surplus, although Tory’s chicken in every pot platform (tax cuts AND service increases AND new spending), and his unwillingness to release any detailed costing, casts doubt on how long it will take for this Liberal surplus to become another Conservative deficit if he’s elected.

By the way, I got a chuckle out of this line from Tory:

Tory also questioned how Sorbara could have “found” an extra $2.3 billion — more proof, he said, that the public can’t trust the government’s numbers.

“Every time this guy who claims to be a finance minister puts on a new pair of pants he seems to find $2 billion,” said Tory, a former president of Rogers Cable. “I can assure you, having run a large organization before, you don’t just find $2 billion.”

Most organizations maybe, but looking at what I pay for cable...at Rogers, I wouldn’t be so sure. But the amusing bit was his comment that the public couldn’t trust the Liberal government’s numbers. I can see why he might be wary, after all, his Conservative forefathers do know a lot about releasing untrustworthy numbers, and he still hasn't given us any numbers for his platform. John knows of what he speaks.

That's not what I wanted to talk about though. Rather, I wanted to address the complaints by Tory and the NDP’s Howard Hampton about the Liberal government’s spending announcements of the last few months, accusing the government of a prolonged vote buying campaign. The government’s response is hey, we’re not going to stop governing for five months before the election.

Frankly, what we’re seeing is just a byproduct of a fixed election dates system. By setting a fixed election date all parties, by definition, know exactly when the election is, and they plan accordingly. For the government, as always, that means doing the unpopular stuff in the first year or two, then rolling-out the popular stuff in the second half to build popularity.

In a fixed election date system it’s that same process, but on steroids. The campaign lasts much longer than the fixed writ period: indeed it begins many months, if not a year, before the writ is ever dropped. All the parties have been in campaign mode for months. All the parties have released pre-writ campaign ads. All have been announcing policy, attacking opponents, and touring the province making spending commitments.

With fixed election dates we get a longer period of campaigning. We saw the same thing in B.C., which had its first fixed-election date in May of 2005. Interesting side note: I was working as a poll clerk for Elections BC on that election (neither provincial party caught my fancy) when the reporter from the local paper came in and said he had big news. I took a break and popped outside to respect the no politics in the polling place rule, and he told me Belinda Stronach had just crossed the floor to the Liberals. He had to say it three times before I believed him, it sounded so crazy. Anyway, both parties in B.C. had begun campaigning for that May election many months before, and the Campbell government over months rolled-out a series of good news announcements and commercials.

So, is there a certain element of campaigning to the McGuinty announcements over the summer? Of course there is. But, as they said, it’s not like they’re going to stop governing for five months before the writ is dropped. And all the parties are campaigning, McGuinty just happens to be the one with the advantage of incumbency.

While fixed election dates have their advantages, longer campaigns are one of their drawbacks. This is one of the reasons I wasn't a fan of fixed election dates. I like campaigns, but prefer them to stay confined to the writ period. But, as with everything, you take the good with the bad.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers