I'm increasingly of the belief that the way to cover a political convention, social media-wise, is to Tweet during the day, and provide a more thought-out perspective at night. So that's what I'm going to try to do for my coverage of the Ontario Liberal Party leadership race this weekend, where I'm a Gerard Kennedy alternate and unofficial blogger at large.
Below you'll find a Storify of my tweets during this first, short day of #olpldr. And I do mean short. All that was on the agenda was the official opening and a tribute to outgoing leader Dalton McGuinty. At a federal Liberal convention, that would be five hours at least. The provincial party knocked it out in about an hour-and-a-half.
It was nice enough. Two of his children MC'd the entertainment portion, with brief performances covering every musical genre except opera. There was the video of Dalton with famous people. And then a speech from the man himself. It was touching for the personal notes -- his wish his father could have lived to see him enter politics, his love for his mother and her influence on his life. He reflected more on what he'd accomplished than where he thinks we should go -- natural enough for the setting and occasion but I'd like to have seen a nod to his view of the path forward.
And then suddenly, and surprisingly, it was over. Not with a bang, seemingly, but with a whimper. And as the delegates began to file from the hall before 9pm, I sat there for a moment with a "is that really it?" feeling. Really, though, it was business like, and so was Dalton. When time has softened the edges of recent dramas, I think history will look well on his tenure.
Otherwise, today was about registering, and connecting with our respective campaigns. And, of course, the hospitality suites. As mentioned, I'm a Kennedy alternate. I'm told our full slate from my riding will be coming, so my chances for promotion are slim to none. I'm still proud to cheer Gerard on though, as he truly is the best choice for Premier, and, as the polls show, to lead the OLP into the next election.
The challenge for Gerard will be to show strong enough on ballot two that a Wynne/Pupatello showdown isn't seen as inevitable. If he can gain enough delegates to get into striking range, he's in the battle and will have a shot at winning his fair share of delegates as ballots continue. But I think he needs to make an early move. He needs someone to come to him early. Otherwise, people will see it as Wynne or Pupatello and they'll pick their horse. We'll see what happens Saturday morning.
Hospitality suite report: lots of food at Charles Sousa's, which was down the street away from the others and was quite spacious. Also, wine and Martinis. Kennedy's was wall-to-wall-packed and had a line to get in. I'm told there was micro brew on tap -- I couldn't get close enough to the bar. All the others had suites as well, but I had to get back to Scarborough.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Day 1 is for Dalton at #olpldr
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Why politics is stupid much of the time: the flip-flop attack
Trying to save is drowning campaign the day before e-day, Ontario C leader (I've redacted the P) Tim Hudak was in Mississauga today, where he used Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty's decision to cancel a controversial local power plant project to frame the Premier as a promise-breaker unfit to govern.
“This site symbolizes why we need change,” Mr. Hudak said as he stood in a parking lot overlooking the construction site. “More Dalton McGuinty broken promises are going to hit Ontario families in the pocket book. Friends, we need change.”Seems simple enough, right? McGuinty promised to build this power plant and now he's breaking his promise. He's flip-flopping. He's a naughty promise-breaking flip-flopper who can't be trusted.
Tuesday, October 04, 2011
Belated random thoughts on political happenings
I've found myself too busy with work and what not lately to be blogging as much as I should be, so here's some short random thoughts on recent events until I can write something longer. Which I promise to do soon. Ish.
Mr. Brahmi added that Mr. Topp, who has the endorsement of former NDP leader Ed Broadbent and former Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow, “is the candidate of the apparatchik.”
* Meanwhile, there's a provincial election going on in Ontario. I confess, I've been unable to muster-up too much enthusiasm and interest. But I do know it's getting nasty, and I'm pretty sure it's not going too well for Tim Hudak's (not overly) Progressive (but very) Conservative Party. The polls are all over the map, from a strong Liberal lead to too close to call. We'll see who gets their vote out Thursday. What all of them show though is an undeniable trend over the past year of Conservative decline and Liberal rise. And it's clear who is panicking. Watching TV the last few nights, I've seen a steady diet of harshly negative Conservative ads and extremely positive Liberal ads. That's telling as we go down to the wire. But hey, Tim can still draw a crowd.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Ontario numbers that will make Gordon Campbell cry
I was writing yesterday about the politics of the debate around the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). Well, interesting to see some polling numbers for Ontario drop this morning for Ipsos Reid. Here they are:
BC NDP: 46 per cent
BC Liberals: 26 per cent
Greens: 14 per cent
BC Conservatives: 8 per cent
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Will B.C. have a referendum on the HST?
They will if Bill Vander Zalm (yes, that Vander Zalm) gets his way. From Elections BC:
British Columbia’s Chief Electoral Officer, Harry Neufeld, has granted approval in principle on an initiative petition application. The petition will be issued to proponent William Vander Zalm on Tuesday, April 6, 2010. The title of the initiative is: An initiative to end the harmonized sales tax (HST).
“This is the seventh initiative petition application to be approved since the legislation came into force in 1995″, notes Neufeld.
Any registered voter can apply to have a petition issued to gather support for a legislative proposal. After the petition is issued, the proponent will have 90 days to canvass and collect signatures of at least 10% of the registered voters in each of the 85 electoral districts.
Individuals or organizations who intend to oppose the initiative, conduct initiative advertising, or canvass for signatures must be registered with Elections BC. The deadline to apply for registration as an initiative opponent is March 8, 2010.
Registered voters as of April 6, 2010 may sign the petition for the electoral district in which they are registered. Voters may only sign the petition once.
The release notes this is the seventh petition application to be attempted under the legislation since 1995. I don’t recall any of the others, so I’d guess they didn’t take off. Certainly they didn’t succeed. I know the similarly structured MLA recall ability has also regularly failed to come close to success. And that only requires voters in one district.
An HST referendum requires 10 per cent of voters in every riding to sign on, and they have to do it in 90 days. That’s a tough hill to climb. For sure, there is anger in the province over the HST and particularly, I think, around the fact it came just after an election in which Gordon Campbell made no mention of it. But does the Vander Zalm camp have the organizational moxie to pull this off? Perhaps, but I’m skeptical. It has a chance, though. It will be interesting to see if Carole James and the BC NDP sign on.
Here are the specifics of the Vander Zalm initiative:
The purpose of the initiative draft Bill is to declare that the agreement between the federal government and the British Columbia government to establish a harmonized sales tax (HST) is not in effect. The draft Bill would reinstate the 7% provincial sales tax (PST) with the same exemptions as were in effect as of June 30, 2010 and establish the provincial sales tax as the only sales tax in British Columbia for the purposes of raising provincial revenue. The draft Bill proposes that it be effective retroactively to June 30, 2010. The Bill also proposes that the provincial share of HST revenues received between June 30, 2010 and the date of Royal Assent of the Bill that exceeds what would be collected under the PST rules as of June 30, 2010 would be reimbursed to British Columbians on a per capita basis.
What happens if they get the necessary signatures? A quick perusal of the Elections BC guidelines outlines the process:
The Select Standing Committee on Legislative Initiatives must meet within 30 days of receipt of the initiative petition and draft Bill. The Select Standing Committee has 90 days to consider the legislative proposal. The Committee must either table a report recommending introduction of the draft Bill or refer the initiative petition and draft Bill to the Chief Electoral Officer for an initiative vote.So, by my read, the committee (on which I’d imagine the governing Campbell Liberals would have a majority) could either decide to introduce (and presumably support) the bill, ending the process with its passage (unlikely they’d flip-flop on the HST) or let it go to a referendum in a year-and-a-half. If it did get that far, the latter scenario would seem more likely. Even if the referendum succeeds, in theory in seems the government could still use its majority to kill the legislation, but with a clear verdict in a referendum that scenario seems highly unlikely.
If an initiative vote is required, a vote will be held on September 24, 2011, and on the last Saturday of September in every third year after that date. If more than 50% of the total number of registered voters in the province vote in favour of an initiative, and more than 50% of the total number of registered voters in each of at least 2/3 of the electoral districts in the province vote in favour of an initiative, the Chief Electoral Officer must declare the initiative vote to be successful and the government must introduce the Bill at the earliest practicable opportunity.
After a Bill is introduced into the legislature, the requirements of the Recall and Initiative Act have been satisfied, and any subsequent reading, amendment, or passage of the Bill will proceed as with any other Bill, with no guarantee of passage.
It would be an interesting campaign and, as much as the anti-HST folks would like to think they’re on the side of the angels as anti-tax crusaders, the reality is far different and a referendum could allow some of those nuances to be examined. Still, the pro-HST campaign would be a challenging one to wage.
My question for Vander Zalm though, and it’s not a small one: would he give all that harmonization money ($1.6 billion) the Harper Conservatives gave the province back to the feds? That would leave a huge hole in the province’s budget. What cuts would he make to compensate for it? The fact is, as much as some opponents may wish, I don’t think the HST genie can be stuffed back into the bottle. I suspect the smarter among the opponents know this – they’re just playing the politics.
And while such practical considerations will likely pale next to the populism of this thing, I really fail to see how the HST genie can be gotten back into the bottle. Despite the obvious difficulties in selling it, and the expected difficulties in implementation, not to mention the poor timing of doing this during a downturn, the fact remains that the idea of harmonizing federal and provincial sales taxes is good policy. Tough politics, yes, but good policy. We can take issue with the nuts and bolts, and demand tinkering to reduce negative effects, but the overarching policy is sound. It will save businesses money and create jobs for citizens. It did in Atlantic Canada, and it will in Ontario and B.C.
While I’ll take issue with Campbell conveniently finding religion on this mere days after an election, and with the Conservatives running away from it despite actively encouraging it and writing huge cheques to grease the wheels, it is still the right policy and I think more people should give credit to politicians like Campbell and Dalton McGuinty that pursue the right policy, even if the politics are horrible. Certainly it makes me think less of those that know the policy is right, but oppose it solely for partisan advantage.
I’m doubtful this will ever come to a referendum vote. But I hope this doesn’t mark a move towards the ballot initiative craziness we see in the U.S. political system, a trend that has led in large part to California’s fiscal crisis. It may be easy to rally populist anger against a government decision. But governing isn’t black and white. Governing is a series of interlocking decisions and tough choices. Every decision has rippling consequences. Pull one string and the whole tapestry unravels pretty quickly. Kill the HST, what happens then? What other taxes change to compensate? What does it mean for businesses? What about the federal compensation money? What budget cuts need to be made to give that back?
It’s not as easy as voting on one item in isolation. That’s why I’m not supportive of this sort of initiative campaign. We elect our political leaders to govern on our behalf, using their best judgment to consider all the factors and make the best decisions they can. We trust in their judgment.
And if they don’t live up to that trust, if we disagree with their calls on these tough choices, the place to make our displeasure known is by voting them out on election day. Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Presidential Steve and Workmanlike Dalton
An interesting contrast highlighted here in Murray Campbell's column in the Globe this morning. Not to read too much into it, but it does lend some interesting commentary as to the style and attitude of the leaders, Stephen Harper and Dalton McGuinty:
The Prime Minister travels these days in a motorcade of at least a dozen cars that uses police motorcycles with flashing lights to stop traffic to clear a path. By contrast, the Ontario Premier is crammed with his staff and police bodyguards into a hybrid SUV that stops for traffic lights.Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Don't make Dalton angry...you won't like him when he's angry
Premier Dalton McGuinty vowed today to remind Ontario voters in the next federal election that Ottawa is short-changing the province, just as Prime Minister Stephen Harper took a campaign-style swing through Canada's most populous province.
"I think that's my responsibility," McGuinty said in Kitchener, ahead of Harper's scheduled stop in the southern Ontario city.
"I intend to be more vocal than I have been in the past and help Ontarians fully understand the nature of our economic challenge."
...
McGuinty, once dubbed the "small man of Confederation" by the federal Conservatives, shot back with a sharply worded letter to Harper, accusing Flaherty of undermining confidence in Ontario and failing the province by not using the hefty federal surplus to stimulate its economy.
The war of words died down after polls suggested the bickering was backfiring on the Tories and costing them crucial support in vote-rich Ontario.
McGuinty's pledge Tuesday to ramp up the rhetoric seemed to be aimed squarely at Harper, whose whirlwind tour through southern Ontario has heightened speculation that an election will soon be called.
Also suiting-up will be the team that helped the McGuinty Liberals clobber the Tory Tories and win a second, even larger majority in Ontario last fall. Just how popular are the provincial Liberals? Says Nanos:
The poll, conducted in early August, shows Premier Dalton McGuinty and the ruling Liberals are maintaining a 10-point lead over the second-place Progressive Conservatives -- similar to the results of last fall's provincial election.
"The NDP have managed to improve support in the last two months, but there's been no significant change in support for (party leader) John Tory's Conservatives since the last election," said Nanos Research President Nik Nanos.
The results show the Grits with 41% support among decided voters and the Progressive Conservatives with 31%. The NDP came in at 17%, followed by the Green Party, who sit at 11%.
What about the Harper Cons? Well, according to Decima:
In Ontario, latest results show the Liberals leading with 40%, the Conservatives with 31%, the NDP at 14%, and the Greens at 14%. Averaging three weeks, the Liberals lead with 40% compared to the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 15% and the Greens at 13%.
It's a nine point Liberal lead already in vote-rich Ontario. And with Team McGuinty suiting-up in a campaign, some Conservative seats are going to be in play...
That whole Stephen Harper/Jim Flaherty strategy of Ontario sucks, don't invest there is looking like more and more of a strategic genius move by the day. Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Federal/provincial environmental disagreement
You've probably heard by that it seems there’s a difference of agreement on environmental policy between a federal political party and its governing provincial cousins:
The Alberta government is spending $25-million to spruce up the province's image for tourists, immigrant workers and environmental critics. As for the environment part of the message, Alberta should save the money. Alberta's climate change policy will soon be dead. It will be dead in the United States. It is already dead with the Harper government, even if the Harperites don't want publicly to administer last rites. It's dead with some of the smart people in the oil industry.
Oh, you were referring to the difference of opinion in the Liberal camp, with Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty supposedly being at odds with Stephane Dion’s in-progress carbon shift proposal? OK, we can talk about that one too:
Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty is at odds with his Ottawa cousins over a key plan to tax carbon emissions, saying he'd prefer a cap-and-trade system for the country's most populous province over a carbon tax.
The tax, which is expected to be a central plank in the federal Liberal election platform, is one way to put a price on carbon and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but his "first choice" for Ontario is a cap-and-trade system, McGuinty said Tuesday.
Let’s look at what Dalton is actually saying, and what he didn’t say. He didn't say he's against a carbon shift. He said is “first choice” would be cap and trade. And his brother, surely a trusted source (sure David is a federal Liberal MP, but what would Mom say if he misrepresented Dalton’s views?) backs that up:
David McGuinty downplayed concerns that the carbon tax plan could drive a wedge between the Ontario and federal Liberals.
He said he had a "general discussion" with his brother about the merits of one system over another, but the premier didn't express an opinion about carbon taxes.
"It was more of an exchange of ideas around the two possibilities, the two primary market mechanisms that can be harnessed to achieve the same end, which is a price on carbon," McGuinty said.
In fact, a federal carbon tax could complement a provincial cap-and-trade system, he said.
"I think what the premier's said is, 'Look, given the here and now of the specificity of the Ontario economy, and how we would like to go forward in pricing carbon, we would rather go with a cap-and-trade system first,"' he said.
"But I doubt very much the premier's ruling out the notion of a carbon tax shift."
So, there you go. Dalton isn’t against a carbon shift, he just feels that for Ontario, and the provincial level, cap and trade would be best. It’s Dalton’s job to advocate what’s best for Ontario. And it’s Stephane Dion’s to advocate what’s best for Canada. I’m confident the two positions are far from mutually exclusive.
Indeed, as David (and lots of experts, and much of Europe) has said cap and trade and a carbon shift would (and overseas, do) compliment each other nicely, so any talk of a rift here is just media over dramatization. Nothing in the story, no direct quotes, supports the headline.
And as I mentioned the other, one benefit of the way the Liberal Party is developing this policy, and the fact that it hasn’t been finalized yet, is that the concerns of Premier McGuinty and Ontario can be heard, considered, and factored into the final policy.
I hope, and I trust, that we’re consulting right now with our provincial cousins, or in David’s case with his brother, to ensure the input of Ontario, and all the provinces, is factored into the final carbon tax shift policy before it is unveiled so that we can develop a proposal for federal environmental policy that works in harmony with, and compliments, the important work being done by many provinces.
I think that, in the end, Dalton’s input will only lead to a stronger, more effective and widely accepted policy. That would be a win win for Ontario, and for Canada.
Recommend this Post on Progressive BloggersWednesday, April 30, 2008
Say what, Howie?
The Globe has an other story on the equalization fight between the McGuinty Liberals and the Flaherty/Harper Conservatives. And it has an interesting nugget from Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton:
"Is the McGuinty government really saying that the federal government should change the tax system so that they take less money from Ontario? How fair would that be for the rest of Canada?"
Perhaps Howard might want to consider what’s fair for the people of Ontario, whom he's supposed to represent, instead of sanctioning this province shipping $20 billion to other provinces to let them cut corporate taxes while our economy suffers.
Another interesting observation, this one from Ontario Conservative leader without a seat John Tory:
However, Ontario's opposition parties accused Mr. McGuinty of using his complaints about the equalization formula to deflect attention from the fact the province's economy is falling far behind the rest of Canada because of Liberal government policies.
OK, so if I accept that its McGuinty’s policies that are hampering the Ontario economy, does that also mean that a) Jean Chretien and Paul Martin can fairly take credit for the boom times of the mid to late 90s, and b) Stephen Harper and Jim Flaherty are to blame for the slowdown of the national economy?
Because whenever I make those arguments, the right tells me governments can’t take credit or blame for the economy. Just curious. Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Owwwwberta
I gathered at a T-Dot pub last night to watch the results come in with Calgary Grit, Jason Cherniak and some other Liberals, including some of the ex-pat
I think as an (for the time being, geographically-speaking) Easterner, I think I look on
It seems to us they keep electing Conservatives no matter what, and it seems to them we keep electing Liberals no matter what. Although, we did at least give Mike Harris’s Conservatives two terms and Bob Rae’s NDP one. Both worked out fantastically, btw. Nevertheless, I think we’re both equally puzzled about the other. Ontarians are from Mars, Albertans are from Venus I suppose you could say.
I did want to comment though on the spin I’ve been seeing coming from some Conservative bloggers and commenters, saying the strong Conservative victory in
Yeah, no. I think Dalton McGuinty would beg to differ. He won a bigger Liberal majority in
If you’re going to try to ascribe national implications to the
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Call off the hyperbole police
A friend pointed me towards a very strange story in the Toronto Star today, about a women allegedly threatening to kill a senior aide to Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty:
The charge follows an incident on Sept. 30, when Vir sent a packet of mix for making gulab jamun, an Indian sweet, to McGuinty to express her "love and affection," dropping it off to staff member Monica Masciantonio.
The same night, she emailed McGuinty, asking whether Masciantonio had given him the mix.
"I said, `If she didn't give it to you, I'll kill her.' It's just slang," Vir said. "I use this term all the time with my husband and my kids. In Hindi, it's, `Mein tumarhi jaan nikal dungi.'"
Seems like a figure of speech to me, and not a serious threat. However:
…on Nov. 20, after the election, half a dozen police officers showed up at her door. They confiscated her laptop, cellphone, camera and papers, and hauled her to jail on a charge of conveying a death threat. There she spent a frantic six hours until her husband bailed her out. "I was so upset I couldn't stop crying. I kept asking, `What wrong did I do?'"
There has to be something more to this than meets the eye, as with the facts as presented in the article this doesn’t really make sense. Unless there is something we’re missing, I’d hope saner heads could prevail and McGuinty could step in here and help settle this.
It’s a cautionary tale though, perhaps, to think carefully before you click send on that e-mail to a public official. Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
Monday, December 03, 2007
McGuinty stands up for the troops, and their families
I'm really pleased to read about this move from the McGuinty Liberal government. This is going beyond saying you support the troops, this is actually doing it. Hopefully this will spur similar legislation across the country. Kudos too to the opposition parties for giving unanimous consent.
Ontario extends health care for military familiesRecommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
The Canadian Press
December 3, 2007 at 2:56 PM EST
Toronto — Ontario is poised to become the first province to ensure that out-of-town military families get immediate access to free health care.
Premier Dalton McGuinty introduced the legislation today, earning unanimous consent from the opposition parties.
The bill also legislates job security for reservists when they're called to duty.
(more)
Sunday, October 14, 2007
A project for Dalton
With their second majority mandate now in hand, I think it’s time for the Ontario Liberals to show that leadership really does matter and begin to do something about the religious schools issue.
That may sound crazy, I know. After all, this is the issue that in all likelihood cost the John Tory Conservatives their chance at forming a government, and certainly cost Tory his seat. And the Liberals and McGuinty were very careful not to wade too deeply into the nuts and bolts of the issue during the campaign, which was very smart politics. It’s not leadership, but it was smart politics, and it helped them win the election.
I think John Tory was very wrong on this issue; I think extending public funding to all religions is a very bad idea. It wouldn’t integrate the system as claimed, it would further divide it, leading to a balkanization of the system as students are sent to different schools depending on religion. It wouldn’t unite, it would divide.
While Tory was wrong in his solution, he was very correct however in identifying the problem. It is fundamentally unfair to fund one religious minority, Catholics , and not others. And for the record, I attended a Catholic school in Grade One and Two. I don’t think the answer is funding all religions though, it’s funding none of them.
This is an issue that should be addressed, and one that isn’t likely to go away. An election campaign probably wasn’t the best time to have this debate either. But now that the campaign is over and McGuinty is safely settled back into the legislature for up to five years, I think it’s time for the government to take action.
It should appoint a commission or panel of respected and learned individuals/s to study the issue and come up with recommendations: should we maintain the status quo, extend funding to all, or extend funding to none? The panel should tour the province, hold hearings, hear from different religious, minority and ethnic groups and just regular citizens, debate these issues and try to come to a consensus.
If there is a consensus that develops, the government should take action on it. Because Tory was right about one thing, leadership does matter. And I’d like to see McGuinty show some leadership here.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
John Tory is no Paul Martin
Since I'm on the other side of the continent at the moment, in Las Vegas, it's hard to comment too authoritatively on the election results. On the other hand, I'm just back from a Hootie and the Blowfish concert (it was free) and I can report that, yes, the dolphins still make them cry.
But back to the provincial election. From what I can glean from a cursory look around the blogs and the Web it looks like Dalton got a majority, the Cons got whooped, and John Tory couldn't even win his handpicked riding. And, despite that, he intends to hang on as leader.
There have been comparisons during this campaign between John Tory and Paul Martin. Both tried to stake-out new ground for their party. Both tried to run on cults of personality. Paul Martin's Team. Your John Tory candidate. And so on.
Well, I've met Paul Martin. I've shaken Paul Martin's hand. And you, John Tory, are no Paul Martin.
I was far from a Paul Martin fan by the time January 2006 came around. But I regained a good deal of respect for the man that election night when he took responsibility for the result and announced his resignation, short circuiting any internal controversy. He showed a good deal of leadership, and class, that night.
John Tory took another route tonight, and a it's a less honourable one that puts his ambition and ego ahead of his party. His party suffered an embarrassing and humiliating defeat tonight, and it's one entirely of his making. The religious schools play was his call, and it flopped big time. Without it this was a very different race. He built a cult of personality, and it was rejected soundly tonight. For him to try to hang on is embarrassing. He's just prolonging the inevitable, and doing his party as a disservice.
Leadership does matter. John Tory had an opportunity to show it tonight. But he didn't. It's too bad.
Congratulations to Dalton, and all the Liberals, and members of all parties, elected to the legislature tonight. Congrats also to Kate Holloway, for fighting the good fight against a strong NDP incumbent in Trinity-Spadina and falling just 3000 votes short. Hopefully we'll see her on a ballot again soon.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
SES puts Ontario Liberals in majority territory
New numbers out this morning from SES echo the weekend's Ipsos numbers, also saying the McGuinty Liberals have widened their lead over the Tory Conservatives to 10 points.
The phone survey, conducted Sept. 28-30th, puts the race as follows:
Liberals: 44 per cent (+3)It looks like the Liberal gain came from the NDP rather than the Conservatives, indicating perhaps a stop Tory/anti-Conservative vote shifting to the Liberals. I thought this note from SES was interesting:
Conservatives: 34 per cent (+1)
NDP: 15 per cent (-3)
Greens: 7 per cent (-1)
*10 per cent undecided
Interestingly, in the last seven days support among women who support the NDP has dropped and resulted in a corresponding increase in female support among Liberals.
Interesting indeed. And troubling no doubt for Hampton and the NDP. This may cause them to increase their attacks on McGuinty and the Liberals in the last week of the campaign, not that they've been shy on that front to date.
Speaking of Hampton, he hasn't been losing support personally and neither has McGuinty, who has a three point (but within the margin) lead on Tory for best Premier:
Dalton McGuinty 32% (+3)
John Tory 29% (-2)
Howard Hampton 18% (+3)
Frank de Jong 3% (-1)
None of them 6% (-1)
Unsure 12% (-2)
I'm not sure if we'll have another public poll before e-day to see how Tory's major flip-flop yesterday on faith-based schooling plays. I'm sure the parties will have their own internal polling shortly, it would be interesting to see the results. The next poll for us though may be the only one that counts, on Oct. 10. It'll be like a giant free vote. Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
Monday, October 01, 2007
Tory’s ship is sinking: Will 'leadership' get thrown overboard?
The new polling numbers on the Ontario provincial election released over the weekend by Ipsos Reid surely have to be giving Conservatives pause, and causing John Tory to ask what ‘matters’ more: leadership, or polling numbers.
Because these polling numbers aren’t good. Unless you’re a Liberal, that is. Looks like Dalton is the debate winner after all. The latest numbers show the Liberals (43) opening-up a 10 point lead over the Conservatives (33), with the NDP treading-water at 17 and the Greens continually unchanged at 6.
For all the Conservative bluster, the numbers show the Liberals down just three points from the 46 they achieved in Election 2003, while if the vote were held today John Tory would have done two points WORSE than Ernie Eves, who had all that Mike Harris baggage to deal with. Ouch.
Here’s the chart:
Ipsos indicates the landscape is hardening, with people becoming more firmly decided in their voting choice. Interesting also though is the motivation of voters to get out and vote, always key for electoral success. Conservative voters are the most motivated at 74 per cent, followed by NDPers at 70 per cent and Liberals at 68 per cent.
Even factoring in those figured though, Ipsos still projects a potential Liberal majority, with Libs 42 per cent to Cons 35 and NDP 17. So, get out the vote will be essential if the Liberals want to get a majority.
On the issues front, the number one issue dogging Tory, according to Ipsos, and, well, everybody paying even a little attention, is faith-based schooling:While at the beginning of the campaign 35% of Ontarians either ‘strongly’ (14%) or ‘somewhat’ (21%) supported the Progressive Conservative plan to extend funding to faith-based schools throughout
If there’s any solace for John Tory it’s his personal numbers. On the Best Premier front he’s still neck and neck with Dalton McGuinty, with 
So, perhaps people do think leadership matters. It’s the rest of the ‘John Tory Team’ that Ontarians have a problem with. And, one wonders how strong Tory’s leadership numbers will stay if he flip-flops and breaks his promise on the faith-based schooling issue, forsaking ‘leadership’ for political opportunism. Perhaps that’s why, as Jason speculates, he was pushing supporters to vote last week.
Just a week and a half to go to e-day. Makes me a bit sad I’ll be in Vegas and will miss all the excitement. But only a little bit.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Thoughts provincial and federal, international and animated
An increasingly busy work schedule has prevented me from blogging as much as I’d like, so just a few quick thoughts on matters provincial and federal to share.
*The centerpiece of John Tory’s election campaign, focusing not on the Conservative brand but rather The John Tory Team™, has been that Leadership Matters. That theme hammered in on every lawnsign, every nasty attack ad, and every speech Tory gives.
What does it say about Tory’s leadership skills, then, when he can’t even lead his own caucus during an election campaign?Opposition to Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory's contentious policy on faith-based schools hit close to home yesterday when the first member of his caucus broke ranks by announcing he would vote against it.
*Speaking of YouTube, the folks at ToryTube have another video posted. Somehow they’ve gotten a hold of a copy of John Tory’s diary. OMG, when I watched it I was ROTFL.
*On a more serious note, the issues page on the Working Families Coalition Web site is worth checking-out. It’s a forum for people to discuss issues of interest in the election campaign. They also have some interesting tv spots.
*New poll numbers out today from SES show the provincial race relatively unchanged. The Liberals maintain a strong lead, 41 to 33. Tory has gained popularity to tie McGuinty for Best Premier and six in 10 said they don’t know who won the debate or that no one won.
Interesting, though, was the gender gap, which SES calls a significant hurdles for the Conservatives. The ladies aren’t keen on the Tory Cons. Among women its Liberals 42%, PC 28, NDP 23, Greens 7.
*Moving onto federal matters, I plan to write more in depth on this when I have the time but I’m increasingly of the view that the Liberals, barring something shocking being in it, will have to vote against the Throne Speech. The fall isn’t perfect but it’s looking better than spring, and I don’t think we can be seen backing-down and keeping this government in power any longer. But more on that later.
As for throne speech ultimatums go though, the BQ isn’t the first to the table here. The LPC put its demands on the table two weeks ago:
- Immediately inform NATO that
- Table the Clean Air and Climate Change Act in the next Parliamentary session
- Put forward a "real" economic plan
- Put forward a credible plan to address poverty
*I don’t know, this seems like a natural progression for the Giuliani campaign, given their strategy to date:
A spokeswoman for Rudy Giuliani says it is unfortunate that a supporter throwing a party that aims to raise $9.11 per person for the Republican's presidential campaign is asking for that amount.*The fall tv season is beginning, tres fun. The Simpsons premier was good, I liked the continuity from the movie in the opening credits. And seeing Colbert have a cameo was fun. But The Simpsons was overshadowed by the one-hour Family Guy premiere parodying Star Wars. One of the most hilarious things I’ve seen in years. Particularly the Robot Chicken thing at the end.
*Lastly, has anyone noticed Firefox crashing a lot more lately, probably since they pushed the last update? It’s starting to really piss me off. I’d hate to go back to IE, but I may have no choice… Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Live blogging the Ontario leaders debate
6:30pm: Time to live blog the Ontario leaders debate. Because making quick, snarky and sarcastic comments is easier than doing in depth analysis. I've got a plate of pizza bagels, a rum and coke (because it worked so well last time). So, let's go.
6:32pm: Steve Pakin is back as host, I liked him during the federal debate. Instead of opening statements they're doing videos? I like change, but not change for change sake. Seems too commercially. McGuinty's video tackles head-on the broken promise on taxes and the health premium, explains and apologizes. I like it, defuse it up front, and take responsibility too. The NDP's ad is a positive message, and I like it. I wonder though, those workers that said Howard was the only one that helped them with their plant closed, how exactly did he help? Tory, surprise surprise, is once again harshly negative. Criminals set free by Dalton McGuinty's catch and release justice program? This is U.S. Republican-style smeers. I'm not sure if Tory's negativism is because he's desperate, or if it's just because he doesn't have anything positive to say at all. I'd ask if maybe he's a jerk, but everyone that has met him from all parties seems to think he's a good guy personally
6:35pm: A question on Tory's faith-based education plan. Unity, inclusiveness and equality doesn't mean a balkanization of the school system John, that doesn't make sense.
6:38pm: Howard does seem off, maybe he is under the weather.
6:39pm: Dalton and John go at it over public education and faith-based private schools; Hampton has to push his way in, we'd forgotten about him for a minute. He's right though, we should focus on improving the public system. I think Dalton agrees with that too (and has been), but Tory's plan is such a loser how can he resist taking shots.
6:43pm: Second question is on education too. Dalton keeps brining up the Harris record, which is good, He isn't mentioning Harris' name though, which is bad. Howard acknowledges McGuinty has raised funding, but says most of it has gone to “government pet projects.” But he doesn't say where. He says he'll fix the funding formula. But he doesn't say how. Tory doesn't say how he'll do it either, nor explain how he'll fix things while taking $500 million out of the system to add the faith-based schools.
6:52pm: Question on transit, first to Howard. He promises to upload 50 per cent of transit costs to the province, I like that but that's a huge dollar amount, how could you pay for it? He also seems to want to kill the York subway expansion, the students won't like that. Tory wants more long-term, stable funding, I can agree with that. It's not just capital funds that's needed, it is stable operating funds like he said. Dalton keeps talking about public transit plans. That's great, and very needed. But what about operating funds? All the capital spending in the world is no good if you don't have the funds to operate that snazzy equipment. The situation right now with the TTC illustrates that. The gax tax is good though. But we need more operating funds Dalton.
6:56pm: Question to Tory on downloading to municipalities, with a shot at Conservative offloading. Tory says McGuinty is continuing the trend of not doing anything...whose trend John? Your party's trend. Opps. Dalton says picking-up from the mess Tory's friends left isn't easy, but they're working on it. Howard says not only is that not happening, things are worse. He's going to upload even more stuff, I wonder if anyone is keeping a tab on the cost of all this. In the Q&A, Tory gives a shout-out to the rural towns, then returns to a running theme of McGuinty leaving everything until the end of his mandate. Would love to do everything at once and magically, says Dalton, but you stuck us with a huge deficit. You can blame your predecessor for a couple of weeks or a couple of months, says Tory, but no more. Has he told Steve Harper that? Why haven't I heard the name Mike Harris yet? Dalton doesn't like Howard's comments, but he needs to watch the muttering while someone else is speaking.
7:03pm: Broken promises, a voter video asks about recall legislation. We have in it B.C., it doesn't work. Dalton says he opposes it, we have recalls: elections. And apologizes again for the health premium thing. John Tory says everyone knew Ernie Eves was full of shit when the Cons said they'd balanced the budget, so why'd he believe him. Smirk. Tory doesn't say if he'd support recall or not, but says shouldn't be needed if people were nice. If only were so, John. Dalton says John has been calling him names, be tougher Dalton. Howard gangs-up on him too on broken promises, McGuinty outlines the progress he has made. Tory looks comfortable, but a bit smug. It's a fine line between confident and smarmy. McGuinty says Tory promises your cake and eating it too, that's what the last guy said too. Last guy. Say it: Mike Harris!
7:10pm: Question to Howard on the economy and manufacturing jobs, with a reference to the last NDP government's poor economic record. Howard seems stunned, he ignores the NDP record and instead discusses his plan. Tory says the health care tax killed manufacturing jobs? And says next to nothing concrete, Hampton was more specific on his plans. Dalton says it's not all bad. Talks about an auto industry strategy that is saving and creating jobs, a plan the Cons opposed. 1300 jobs a week lost under NDP, 1800 jobs gained under Liberals. Tory seems unwilling to defend the Conservative record. Unsurprising, this is the John Tory Team, not the Conservative Party.
7:16 pm: A question for Daddy Warbucks, John Tory, on fighting poverty. It seems he used to hang-out in disadvantaged neighborhoods all the time while running Rogers. And hey, he mentions the name of his party, emphasis on the Progressive. McGuinty outlines his accomplishments, plan and tosses in the word progressive too with a little smile for John. Howard wants to raise the minimum wage to $10/hour, I agree. He takes a shot at the MPP pay raise, that's lame. Tory commends McGuinty on the Child Tax Benefit. He said something positive. Stop the presses! Then he goes back to the health care tax, Dalton corrects him: low income families are exempt. Then we veer away from poverty into health care. Tory doesn't buy it, Dalton comes back with Tory's push for bringing private health care into the public system Interestingly, Howard helps John and brings it back to attacking McGuinty on the health tax.
7:24pm: Question for Dalton on crime, it's going down but still a concern for people, feel too many repeat offenders on the streets. McGuinty has funded police, courts, strategy on gangs, and programs to address root causes, and opportunities for youth. Howard wants more funding for outreach/root causes, and attacks Conservative cuts to those programs. Tory says it's gang warfare in the streets and it's McGuinty's fault. He hasn't “fixed” the justice system, but Tory magically will, whatever that entails. Dalton says Ontario crime rates are actually lowest in Canada, but still more to do, and says he wants Harper to ban handguns, and wants Tory's support in that. And wants to do it in Ontario. Tory says they're banned already, says need more enforcement at the border. Call up Harper for that John. God, his crime messaging is really so ridiculous. Willie Horton much?
7:29pm: We need a commercial so I can refresh my beverage.
7:30pm: Question for Howard on university tuition, should be an easy pitch for a Dipper, and he likes the question. He want a rollback of tuition to 2003 levels and a freeze, among other things, including public investment. I hope he doesn't pull a Rae and get elected, to pay for all his promises (nice as they are) the deficit will be huge. Tory wants more grants, and to look at ancillary fees. Grants aren't the answer if tuition keeps increasing, he's right on fee creep though. Dalton is going to infuse $6 billion. Said no government ever froze tuition for two years like he did – I believe B.C. did under Harcourt actually.
7:36pm: Question on nuclear for Tory, he says we need them and goes after Dalton for not closing coal plants like he said he would. He liked solar power too he says. McGuinty says the Cons nearly killed the hydro system, says nuclear is needed but downplays it to talk about renewable energy. Howard doesn't like nuclear, wants more efficiency, loans to retrofit homes and buy efficient appliances. That's good Howard, but it's not going to go far enough to address the supply issue. Dalton says Tory is making stuff up, smirk. He wonders how Howard would eliminate half of the system's supply without things collapsing, it's not realistic and its right. I wonder too. Howard points to California.
7:43pm: Question for Dalton, what are you doing with our health premium money? He says it's half of our program spending, but we're doing a lot, and lists is. He's obviously memorized a lot of statistics ad is throwing them at us, I wonder if its a bit too much. Howard wants long-term care and home care for seniors, that's good. Tory asks if we're better off today on health care than when Dalton came into government? I think so, but no one has “fixed” health care, and I haven't heard much concrete from Tory. John brings up the slush fund – during a discussion on health care. And jabbers about a secret phone number or something. Seems an odd place to jam that in. Why no talk here of Tory's private care musings? Howard brings it up, and tries to link McGuinty to it too. John Tory doesn't trust doctors on wait times. Dammed statistics! I'm not clear on what Dalton's saying Tory is taking $3 billion out of the system is about.
7:49pm: Question for Howard, is Ontario still great? There's some good stuff, is the answer, but he'd rather talk about why it sucks. So would Tory, and lists a bunch of ways that he thinks we suck. The answer: leadership, of course, and lots of negative advertising. Dalton says Tory won't fight for Ontario with the feds and the provinces, but he will. Got money from Martin for immigrant settlement. Ontario must assert itself. Howard is pack to the minimum wage, and the MPP pay raise. Dalton decides to address the raise issue and explains the process. Says the NDP's minimum wage plan is too fast. Tory is trying to say leader as many times as possible. I went back and rewound the PVR: four times in less than 20 seconds. McGuinty hits Tory again on private clinics and faith-based schools. Tory firmly commits to private health care with your health card.
7:56pm: Howard's closing statement, quick shot at McGuinty and Tory before moving to what he'd do, with specifics, I like that. Six commitments you can count on. I don't like the third-person referral though.
7:57pm: Dalton thanks the other two leaders, classy, and focuses on the progrress he has made and his plan moving forward. We've come a loing way. I like it.
7:58pm: John says it's a clear choice. Says why he's there, but no specifics on what he'd do. Leadership, blah blah. Doesn't say anything specific, but at least it's positive.
8:00pm: Pakin signs off, says hopefully you found it useful. I have my doubts.
Final thoughts: No knock-out punches that I could see. Tory continued with his harsh negativity, at least in debates that's expected. Howard seemed fine, I liked some of his policies but there's no way he could ever pay for everything he'd like to do. Dalton did well for being attacked on both sides all night. He tried to strike a line between humility and pride in the record. I thought he was a bit too stat heavy at times. And I'm shocked, shocked, that I don't recall him saying the name Mike Haris. He talked about “the conservative record” enough, why not say Harris? It was so striking it had to be a strategic decision.
Anyway, not an overly exciting hour and a half, but these things rarely are. At least no one made any stupid-ass promises like a constitutional amendment never to use the notwithstanding clause.
Time for me to rustle-up some dinner. Live blogging complete.
8:18pm: Except for a brief update because something just occured to me: no one ever mentioned MMP, or the referendum. I mean, really, a question on recall legislation but nothing on the very real referendum on electoral reform? What up with that? I could see Dalton and John, not bringing it up, but why not Howard? And why not Steve Pakin?
Saturday, September 15, 2007
A few weekend Ontario polls
It's the weekend but the Ontario election campaign seems to be starting to heat-up.
Watching television on Friday I was teated to a barrage of political advertising. A few positive ads from the Liberals with Dalton McGuinty talking issues, and a raft of Conservative ads (actually, the same ad again and again I think) with the sound of breaking glass detailing Liberal broken promises, and blaming McGuinty for every crime committed in the past four years. And the kidnapping of the Lindbergh Baby too possibly.
So, I still don't know what John Tory stands for, besides Liberals bad, free booze in casinos, and creationism if necessary, but not necessarily creationism. Really though, while I think the Cons are crossing the line somewhat on the crime front in this ad, their radio ads and their earned media, this tv ad isn't bad. The breaking glass sound serves to draw attention to the TV while cooking dinner, much like the horn honk in the federal Con ads last election.
I wonder though, while the Tory Conservatives continue their campaign to drive down McGuinty's favourables and the Liberal numbers, which is certainly something they have to do, at what point do they start working to define Tory, and what he's all about. Right now, they seem to be positioning him as simply “Not Dalton.” While they keep trying to give people reasons not to vote Liberal, at some point are they going to try to give people reasons to vote Conservative?
Polls
Anyway, a couple of polls hit my inbox this weekend I thought I'd pass along, take from them what you will.
Religious schools
The first is from our friends at SES, who surveyed 501 respondents in Ontario via telephone between August 24th and August 26th on Tory's proposal to bring faith-based schools into the public system. It should be noted Tory's creationism gaffe occurred Sept. 5, and thus wouldn't have been a factor in these numbers.
The survey found Ontarians divided on the proposal with 50 per cent opposed/somewhat opposed and 43 per cent in support/somewhat support. SES noted the intensity of those opposed was greater than the intensity of those supportive, which I'd conjecture means those opposed are more likely to base their vote on the issue. After the creationism gaffe, not good news for Tory.
Here's the exact question they asked, and the results:
Question: As you may know the Ontario PC Party has proposed bringing faith based schools into the public school system. Faith based schools which choose to participate in this program would receive direct funding from the provincial government on the condition they incorporate the Ontario Common Curriculum, participate in Ontario's standardized testing program and ensure teachers maintain proper credentials. Do you support, somewhat support somewhat oppose or oppose bringing faith based schools into the public system?
Support/Oppose (N=501, MOE ± 4.4%, 19 times out of 20)
Support 28%
Somewhat support 15%
Somewhat oppose 10%
Oppose 40%
Unsure 8%
Issues and the horse race
The second poll is from Ipsos Reid and looks at both the ballot box issues and the horse race numbers, including regional breakdowns. The poll surveyed 800 Ontarioins by telephone between Sept. 4 and Sept. 13, which means any impact of the creationism gaffe should be visible here.
Issues
Let's look at the ballot box issues first, the issue respondents said is or could motivate their vote:
...four in ten (43%) identify education/faith-based school funding of the top three issues (for nearly one quarter (23%) of Ontarians it’s the number one motivator), followed by healthcare (41%) as one of the top three campaign issues for them, with Taxes (19%) and the environment (18%) in a dead heat for the third issue (all issues identified were unaided, open-ended responses, allowing up to three with the primary identified separately)
That the top issue is religious education is interesting, particularly when considered with SES's point about the intensity of those opposed to this issue being greater. Tory has made this an issue, if he hadn't it wouldn't be on the radar screen, and yet the issue seems to be working against him. One has to question his strategic decision here to go big on faith based education, creationism gaffe or not.
The number two issue, but only narrowly back from top spot, is health care. This is an issue the Liberals feel well positioned on with the progress they've made in recent years, and it's one McGuinty and Co. have been campaigning on, as well as strongly on education this past week.
The fact taxes are so far back at 19 per cent has to be troubling for Tory. If he'd spent more time on taxes and less on religious schools it would be higher, and I'd have to wager the Liberals are more vulnerable on taxes than they are on religious schools/education. A change in emphasis might be in order for the Cons to raise the importance of this issue higher. They've been hitting hard on criminal justice this week but it's only at seven per cent and another of their issues, integrity/trust, is at just six per cent.
Horse race
On to the horse race numbers. Ipsos characterizes the numbers as stagnant, which would seem to indicate the creationism incident didn't hurt (or help) Tory's numbers. Indeed, the numbers among decided voters stayed pretty much the same from the last Ipsos poll:
Liberals: 40 per cent (-1)
Conservatives: 37 per cent (+1)
NDP: 16 per cent (-1)
Greens: 6 per cent (-)
Undecideds: 6 per cent or 9 per cent (they say both in different places)
In chart form:
Looking regionally it's very tight as well, although there have been some shifts. In the GTA it's Liberals 40 (-2), Cons 38 (+2), NDP 15 (-1) but within the 416 proper there was some interesting movement. The Libs still lead with 39 per cent but that's down 5 over the week, while the Cons gained 6 to move to 33 per cent. The NDP dropped 2, to 21 per cent. In the 905 its Cons 42, Libs 40 and NDP 10.
Moving outside the GTA the Libs have a slim lead. It's Libs 40, Cons 36 and NDP 17, little changed from last week.
Seat projections
Finally, though perhaps most interestingly, Ipsos has also done seat projections based on an aggregate of recent polls. Not to besmirch the good folks at Ipsos, but I find these exercises to be a bit of voodoo science, so take it with a grain of salt.
They're projecting however a slim Liberal majority (54 seats needed). Here's how:
Liberals: 56 seats (42 solid, 14 leaning)
Conservatives: 39 seats (28 solid, 11 leaning)
NDP: 12 seats (9 solid and three leaning)
Open this pdf and they break down their projections riding by riding but again, as I said, huge grain of salt, and even Ipsos says expect big changes here by E-Day.
I found this note from Ipsos interesting:
A majority (51%) of Ontarians believe that it is ‘time for another provincial political party to take over’, however four in ten (40%) believe that ‘McGuinty has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected’—instructive given that a mirrored 40% of the vote would likely yield, as noted above, a slim re-elected Liberal majority government.If I were an MMP supporter (I'm undecided at the moment) I'd seize on those numbers.
MMP
Speaking of MMP, odd that SES and Ipsos both didn't mention the referendum. BigCityLib has an Angus Reid poll (pdf) that does. While Scott points-out it's an online poll (which are frought with issues) the results aren't good for MMP supporters:
The poll also asked Ontarians to voice their views on the referendum on electoral reform, which will take place on the same day as the legislative ballot. A third of respondents (33%) would keep the existing first-past-the-post electoral system, while 26 per cent would switch to the alternative mixed-member-proportional system. Three per cent of respondents would not participate on this plebiscite, and 38 per cent remain undecided.
Since the pro-side needs to get to 60 per cent or the status quo remains, as BCL points out if there numbers are accurate that's a long hill to climb. Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
Monday, September 10, 2007
Ontario campaign officially kicks-off
The Ontario provincial election campaign is officially underway, and I think the lead of this article in the Globe & Mail sums-up well how things have gone so far:Voters got a sense of Ontario's election campaign yesterday with Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty listing his past successes in public education, and his chief opponent labeling him a promise breaker.
That pretty well sums it up. While McGuinty has been talking about his accomplishments, discussing policy and outlining goals, the Tory Conservatives have been relentlessly negative, with nasty radio ads and personal attacks on the Web. And when Tory does try to talk policy, well, it doesn’t go well and the clarifications inevitably follow.
Tory really does seem to be dialing-up the rhetoric with comments like these:
Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty is the worst promise breaker of modern times, Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory said Sunday on the eve of a 31-day provincial election campaign.Really John, the worst promise breaker in modern history? As Seth and Amy would say, really John Tory? I mean, obviously Tory needs to hammer on the health care premium issue. I think there’s a solid counter-argument to be made on the Liberal side, given the record the Harris/Eves Conservatives left behind, but it’s fair game and a key issue for Tory.
But the worst promise breaker in history? Really? Don’t overreach John. Descend into hyperbole and people won’t take you seriously. I mean, why just in modern history? Why not the worst promise-breaker of all time, or, as comic book guy would say, worst promise-breaker ever? Maybe there’s a French king in the 1600s that was a worst promise breaker, hence the qualifier from Tory. I mean, really.
But I can see why John is jumping-on the hyperbole train and going negative hard. A new SES poll today shows, despite all the Tory hype, the Liberals lead the Conservatives (opens pdf). The poll puts the Liberals up six on the Conservatives at 40 per cent of committed voters to the Conservatives’ 34 per cent, with the NDP back at 19 per cent and Greens at 8 per cent.
Some 15 per cent are undecided meaning this is still anyone’s game, could go either way, and everyone will have to work very hard the next few weeks. But the vaunted Tory hype hasn’t translated into support yet. Also, looking at the polling period it appears Tory’s creationism faux pas, which pissed-off both the left and the right, wasn’t factored into these numbers. It will be interesting to see how that plays-out in the next poll. A new Ipsos poll also puts the Liberals in majority territory, albeit a slim one.
Tory is going to need to start having better weeks than he did last week though. He broke his promise and went fiercely negative, came-out against a new holiday for Ontarians, insulted University of Ottawa grads and students, confused everyone about creationism, and accused teachers and the government of a conspiracy to artificially boost test scores. Yeesh.
And now, Tory’s fiscal plan is being assailed as “lacking credibility.” Not a good start to the week, but it can only get better for John…right? Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers