Eating Up the Hill: The #AlternativeFacts Taste of British Columbia at the Parliamentary Restaurant

Every couple of Fridays, The Parliamentary Restaurant allows the unwashed staffer masses inside for a buffet. And when I heard that last Friday's buffet menu was "Flavours of Canada: British Columbia" I, as a BCer, was obligated to make the trek up the Hill.

This is the second in what I surmise will be an ongoing series of provincial-themed menus -- you may recall the Taste of Newfoundland (but not Labrador) a little while back. I didn't have the authority to comment on the authenticity of that one, but as a BCer in Ottawa, I can definitely say this was not the flavour of my British Columbia.

Let's take a look at the menu. Curried veggie noddle salad? OK, we do have a large Indian population so that's a nod in the right direction. House-made granola? Now you're trafficking in stereotypes. Sushi? OK, I'll give you that one -- although you can't say California Rolls without California.

Most of the breakfast stuff is just standard breakfast stuff. Pancakes aren't particularly British Columbian. And putting smoked salmon on the eggs benny isn't really trying too hard.

Perhaps the closest to BC cuisine was the "side stripe prawn and oats, risotto style" which was delicious, even if I've never had it on the left coast.  And the Huckleberry Crisp was a good nod to the Okanagan, even though it had the consistency of soup. As for the cinnamon sticky buns, which I enjoyed, while I do have find childhood memories of the Aunt Bob's Cinnamon Rolls at the Driftwood Mall, we also had A&W in BC and that doesn't make it the flavour of BC.

If it was just a buffet without aspirations of reflecting regional cuisine, I'd give it a 6/10 -- where was the metaphorical beef, y'all? But as it was supposed to reflect the cuisine of the greatest province the grace of God put on the face of the Earth -- and failed badly -- it merits just 3/10.

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Some positive messaging from Christy Clark in BC – but that name change…

I wrote earlier this week about some lessons I hoped BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark would take from the experience of Alberta PCPremier Alison Redford, who was able to win election and beat back a threat on her right by moving to the centre and appealing to progressive voters. And I expressed my frustration with Clark ignoring the left flank of the “coalition” while lunging to embrace the right.

So I was pleased to read comments Clark made to reporters this week in Victoria, in reaction to the Alberta election results:

“The lesson, for me, is that people want a strong coalition,” Ms. Clark told reporters in Victoria on Tuesday. “In British Columbia, the recipe for success is to make sure we have a strong thriving economy and the reason we want that is so that we can make sure people can put food on the table for their kids and look after the most vulnerable in society.”

“The thing for us, in our coalition, is to speak to all the members of our coalition,” she said. “I’ve done a lot of things that have made conservatives happy, and a lot of things that have made people at the centre, liberals, happy, I hope.”

As the Globe said, Clark’s remarks were a “tacit acknowledgment that her efforts to win back supporters from the B.C. Conservatives has left more centrist, liberal voters cold.” I’m pleased that, at least, there is awareness of the problem, and I welcome a shift in message emphasis. It needs to be followed-up, though with concrete action. Clark mentioned raising the minimum wage and the promised family day holiday as examples, but both are rather old. She’ll need to marry words with action to win the centre. 

And I think the way forward is in the same focus that won her the leadership: helping B.C. families be happy, healthy and successful. Most people don’t think about left, right or centre. They think about their families, and their daily lives. Speak to them with real, moderate solutions to their problems and you’ll do well.

About that name…

In related news, I was less pleased about these comments from Clark:

Premier Christy Clark says she's open to a name change if it can be done in time, as part of her appeal to unite the centre-right vote in B.C.

"(Former Liberal finance minister) Colin Hansen raised it at the last provincial convention, and I said at the time I was more than willing to entertain the idea, and so we've been talking. One of our vice presidents has travelled the province and talked to members all across the province about it, so we're working on it and I'll let you know when I have some new news."

In a neutral context, I’d be all for a name change for a number of reasons. For one, the name hasn’t really been representative of the party since the Socreds took it over in the 1990s. And for two, as a federal Liberal it would save us so much drama.

But here’s the thing: we’re not considering this in a neutral context. We’re considering it in the context of a sustained lurch by the party to the right and an alienated left flank. To stuff your office with Harperites, actively court the right, and then dump the word Liberal from the name would be a pretty big middle-finger to the l/Liberals in your camp looking for a reason to stay.

It’s the right idea, but I’m not sure the timing could be worse. For one, it reeks of desperation at this point. If they do it, I hope they accompany it with some major outreach to the left flank of the party to make clear this isn’t the final move in pushing them out the door.

The other risk is that it feeds the negative conceptions that many may be harboring about the party, and the government. The left says it proves they’re not very liberal. The right says you can change the name but Clark is still a liberal. And those dissatisfied with the Campbell years say they’re trying to pretend they’re a new party but I remember their record, and I’ll show them they can’t hide.

Just after she won the leadership, maybe. But in the current context, I just don’t know. But I think actions would and need to speak louder than names at this point.

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Can Christy Clark learn any lessons from Alison Redford?

It’s a staple of punditry to take events in one region and try to connect them to another. And far be it from me to break with tradition. But I think the parallels between Alberta and British Columbia are interesting, and I think there are definitely lessons that Christy Clark and the BC Liberals could take from Alison Redford’s surprise PC majority in Alberta last night – if they choose too.

They do have a lot in common: fresh female faces that won the leadership against expectations and with minimal caucus support. Both took over long-ruling governments (crazy-long in Alberta’s case) facing a public appetite for change. Both were seen as too moderate and l/Liberal. And both faced significant threats on their right flank, from the Wild Rose Party in Alberta to the BC Conservative Party in B.C. Both opponents have drawn lots of attention, and both have weak benches beyond their leaders.

Now, the parallels aren’t perfect, of course. BC Conservative leader John Cummins is most definitely no Danielle Smith. And Redford had no real threat on her left from the Alberta Liberals and NDP, while Clark has to contend with an NDP that's leading the polls and the reality of vote-splitting moving ridings to the NDP. But I do think it’s telling how both Redford and Clark have dealt with their very similar situations.

Facing a threat on her right flank, Redford may well have been tempted to lunge right to bring the defectors back into the camp. Instead, she stayed in the moderate middle (it’s large even in Alberta) and was able to bring progressives into her fold, attracting traditional Liberal and NDP voters determined to stop an even more conservative threat. She may have lost some of her more conservative members (goodbye, Ted Morton) but the result is a government with broad public support that owes nothing to the right.

Meanwhile, facing the same threat on her right in B.C., Clark has opted for the opposite approach, shifting ever more right to try to bring conservative voters back into the fold that are fleeing to the BC Conservatives. She’s stuffed her office with Harperites, adopted his media approach and taken him to hockey games. Other than a majorly overdue hike to the minimum wage, from crime policy to resource development I can’t point to many particularly Liberal policies from her government.

And what has this rightward shift gotten her? Continued bleeding in the polls and a restless caucus as, faced with a choice between faux-conservative and the real thing, most people looking for that opt for the genuine article.

In the interim, Clark’s left flank, ignored and taken for granted, is becoming increasingly restless. With her Harperite chief of staff musing about dropping Liberal from the party name, many wonder if that hasn’t happened already. If Clark keeps ignoring her left flank, she’s going to wake up one day soon and find it’s gone. With her right going to the BC Conservatives, that doesn’t leave her with very much to work with.

I’d encourage Clark to embrace Redford’s example. And embrace her own image. She’s seen (by those on the right, certainly) as a progressive with (too) strong Liberal ties. Trying to out-conservative John Cummins is a losing battle. She’s a centrist, and the votes are in the centre. One reason Redford succeeded is that she was genuine, while Clark is running away from herself.

Let the far-right leave and stop drawing you away from where most of the voters are. Marginalize and ignore the BC Cons: only two parties have a realistic shot at government – the BC Liberals the BC NDP. That’s the choice; focus on that battle and on winning the centre.

Maybe it’s a hopeless fight; it certainly seemed so for Redford. And Clark is between a rock and a hard place. But the right will never buy her as a born-again conservative, and trying to do so will only drive the left away.

I’d leave her with this thought: is a desperate lunge right really why she got back into politics? I’m not saying the fall is all that’s left. Anything can happen. But does it matter how one falls? I think it matters a great deal.

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Who wants to run the HST Yes campaign?

I'm on the record as believing the HST is the right policy for British Columbia (and Ontario and elsewhere), despite the flawed implementation on the left coast. However, with the tide of anger against the HST in B.C. seeming to make its defeat in a referendum next fall almost inevitable, I support Christy Clark's proposal to put the HST to another vote in the legislature in the spring, which could see the HST killed sooner. My feeling is if the public will is clear, government should listen instead of prolonging the issue unnecessarily.

Just how clear the public mood is on the HST is becoming increasingly, well, unclear. New polling from Angus Reid indicates the HST's defeat in a referendum may no longer be the slam-dunk fait accompli it once seemed.

As the weeks progress, support for abolishing the harmonized sales tax (HST) continues to erode. More than half of British Columbians (54%) would still vote to extinguish the HST, but support is down 10 points since early December. One third of BC residents (35%, +5) would cast a ballot to keep the HST, while 11 per cent are undecided.

While women continue to support abandoning the HST by an almost 2-to-1 margin, the race has tightened considerably among men (48% would extinguish it, 42% would keep it).
...
The one key change from early December is the erosion of support for the abolition of the HST. Men and respondents in affluent households are slowly coming on board with the idea that the tax should be kept, so the final decision on whether to proceed with a free vote in the Legislative Assembly—or hold the referendum at an earlier date—will be particularly important for whoever becomes British Columbia’s 35th Premier.

There was another recent poll that showed a strong desire from a lot of BCers for more information on the HST ahead of the referendum, which would seem to indicate both that people are becoming more engaged, and that they're not satisfied with the information they've gotten on sales tax harmonization from either the government, the media, or the anti-HST campaigners.

While the polling shows an erosion of anti-HST sentiment and appears to show a referendum could be winnable, and certain members of the punditry and academia are shaming the political class for backing down from the fight, I would strike one major note of caution to those who think the HST could survive a referendum.

I was talking to a politically astute friend from the left coast last week, and he raised a very good point I haven't heard discussed elsewhere: even if the polling is close, get out the vote would be a nightmare for the HST yes campaign.

Let's remember that we're not talking about a referendum in conjunction with a general election here. We're talking about a standalone referendum on the HST. Voter turnout is going to be a challenge for each side, as they try to motivate people to take time out of their lives to vote in a referendum. It will all be about get out the vote (GOTV).

While it may be getting close to 50-50 in polling, answering the vote or a web panel is one thing, and physically going to cast a ballot is quite another. When it comes to motivation to go out and vote, it's fair to conclude though that the anti-HST crowd has an advantage. If you think the HST is an evil tax increase that costs you money, you're motivated to go vote. If you think harmonization is sound fiscal policy, the impetus to vote is a little lower.

The problem is that the HST's impact on the street creates a more natural anti-HST constituency. You see it at the till, it hits you when you buy a house. The negatives are visible. The positives are less visible and more abstract. The most immediate benefit is for business owners in reduction of bookeeping and other expenses; business owners are fewer in number than the public at large. And the benefit for the public, more competitive businesses creating more jobs, is less visible and hard to link directly to sales tax haronization.

There's also the question of who will step up and run the HST Yes campaign. The No side is clearly defined. The government's role is limited by legislation, leaving it to business to step up, or not.

Point being, despite agreeing with the policy, and even with the tightening polling, I wouldn't envy the task facing the Yes to HST campaign team. It may be a fight worth fighting in the abstract, but on the ground, with the GOTV challenge it seems more than a little hopeless.

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Can Christy Clark move BC past the HST?

To most that follow British Columbia politics from afar, myself included, it’s more than a little surprising that, with all the drama over the last year or two, the BC Liberals stand a more than decent chance of winning the next election.

There is one big caveat though: the BC Liberals need to get out from under and away from the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). When she launched her campaign for the BC Liberal leadership last week, Christy Clark presented one scenario that would seem to offer the party the chance to do just that:

“Let us consider putting the proposed referendum question to a truly free vote of the Legislative Assembly. And you know how that question goes: that this house is in favour of extinguishing the harmonized sales tax. Now if this process is successful it would put the HST behind us by March 31st. If it’s successful, we would notify the federal government immediately of our intention to withdraw after the 18 months notice that’s required in the agreement. We would start to negotiate with them to get out earlier than the five-year agreement currently allows. And unfortunately, it would mean going back to the GST and the PST. But we won’t revisit the HST for another five years. It is time for British Columbia to have certainty around this question.”

“After almost a year, the public still hates the HST. And I think we need to face some hard realities here. And that is if this goes to a referendum, a real referendum, the HST will almost certainly fail. We need to take our heads out of the sand on that, and we need to get on with restoring our economy. No one is served by uncertainty.”

Personally, I think sales tax harmonization makes good economic sense and good policy sense. The devil is in the details, and you need to do everything you can to ensure it’s as close to cost-neutral as possible for taxpayers, but it makes sense on all kinds of levels. Less paperwork for businesses, less paperwork for government. And I think undoing it will be a major logistical and procedural headache.

In BC, though, the implementation was clearly bungled. After telling the public harmonization wasn’t on the agenda during the election campaign, just days later suddenly plans to harmonize were announced. It reeked of dishonesty. While it belatedly began to try to sell the public on the merits of the HST, it was never able to get over that initial perception of dishonesty.

In any democracy, you must listen to the will of the citizens, and the people of B.C. seem clear that the HST has got to go. The government has lost the battle on this one, and it’s time to move on. Prolonging this process through the referendum next fall would be pointless, and would only prolong the economic uncertainty while seeing time and resources wasted fighting a lost cause.

Clark hasn’t committed to a course of action on the HST – she plans to consult party members and the public in the weeks ahead – but her outlined option seems the best way to move the province forward and allow it to put the HST behind it. If the legislature votes to kill the HST the referendum becomes unnecessary and the process of unwinding the tax can begin.

I do have one big question though, and that’s what of the $1.6 billion in transition funding that the federal government sent to the province to sweeten the deal? It seems safe to assume the feds are going to want that money back; just saying “keep it” would hardly be fair to the other provinces. I doubt the feds would take a super hard line and demand it all back at once; this would be part of the negotiation but I could see it being paid back over time or applied over time against future transfer payments. Still, it’s going to but a crunch on the province’s budget and necessitate some tough choices that need to be part of the debate.

Anyway, here’s the video from Clark’s leadership campaign launch last week:

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Campbell’s departure could dash NDP dreams

I've lived in Ontario for five years now but I’ve never really gotten involved in provincial politics here. I think it’s because, having come from the always entertaining and wacky world of BC politics, Ontario seems pretty dull by comparison. Certainly watching the HST drama from afar has been far more interesting than some supposed drama about Dalton McGuinty and hydro rates or something.

It’s hard to know where to start. Arguably the most electorally successful premier in BC history in Gordon Campbell, who survived a drunk-driving charge while in office, only to be felled by a caucus and taxpayer revolt. A taxpayer revolt led by Bill Vander Zalm, a former premier who presided over the destruction of the once-mighty Social Credit brand and left office in disgrace and mockery. And an opposition party in the BC NDP that, with the government at historic lows in the polls, seemed more interested in knifing its own leader, Carole James.

The latest development, Campbell’s resignation as Premier, was both inevitable and surprising. He tried to save himself with a televised infomercial a few weeks ago, offering large personal tax cuts, but the damage was done. With a caucus revolt brewing, Campbell recognized the writing was on the wall and decided to go as gracefully as possible.

Campbell’s departure triggers what should be a pretty interesting leadership race to replace him with all kinds of names being thrown out, from current minister like Kevin Falcon to past ministers like Christy Clark, as well as popular mayors and even federal Conservative cabinet ministers like James Moore.

Surprisingly, polling shows that, unlike when Rita Johnston beat-out Grace McCarthy for the Socred leadership after Vander Zalm ran the party into the ground, the BC Liberal leadership may still be a prize worth winning.

If Campbell had stubbornly decided to stay on the BC Liberal brand seemed destined to join Social Credit in the political graveyard, its support splitting between the BC Conservatives, the BC NDP and possibly a new centrist alternative. That erosion could still happen at a slower pace, but by falling on his sword Campbell has given his party a chance to live on.

New polling from Angus Reid taken after his televised infomercial but before his resignation indicates Campbell’s last-ditch hail-mary didn’t land, but he stands a good chance taking a lot of the voter animosity with him when he leaves the legislature.

The NDP still has a strong lead in the horserace, 47 per cent to 26 per cent over the BC Liberals, with the Greens and Conservatives tied at 10 per cent. And if the HST referendum goes ahead, 66 per cent will vote to abolish, 21 per cent would keep and 13 per cent are undecided.

The poll shows while they liked the policy promises in Campbell’s infomercial they’ve completely lost faith that he’ll keep his word on anything, with 66 per cent calling him unconvincing.

There is, however, a lot of underlying weakness evident in the NDP numbers. While Campbell scores an anemic 12 per cent leadership approval rating, James isn’t a whole lot better at 25 per cent.

And here’s an interesting set of numbers. While only six per cent said they’d like to see the next election return a BC Liberal government led by Campbell, remove Campbell from the equation and the NDP lead is only preferred 32 per cent to 28 per cent.

While the level of remaining resilience in the BC Liberal brand is surprising, the NDP weakness isn’t. Their numbers are very soft. For many years BC has been a two-party system, swinging back and forth between two defaults. People are pissed off with Campbell’s Liberals and James and the NDP are the default choice, but she’s still the leader and the party the electorate soundly rejected in the last election.

With a new leader at the helm of the BC Liberals and a few years to govern before the next election, that 47 to 22 NDP lead will shrink and this could be a very tight race once more. It will depend, of course, on who the new leader is and, more importantly, what they do with the HST. While the HST is the right policy, the people seem to have spoken pretty clearly and the referendum seems a formality at this point. If a new leader reverses the HST it's a new ball-game. If they try to sell it in a referendum battle, it will be closer but I don’t see them pulling it out.

Finally, even if a new leader can bring the BC Liberals off of life support, it remains clear that British Columbians remain utterly unsatisfied with their status quo options. While 32 per cent want the NDP to former the next government and 28 per cent the Campbell-less Liberals, the leader, with 34 per cent, as not sure/none of these.

Campbell’s departure may slow the process, but another dramatic shake-up of the BC political landscape remains inevitable. And it’s still very much needed.

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Vander Zalm's anti-HST fight financed by undertakers and unions

Elections BC has posted the financial filings for the referendum initiative launched by Bill Vander Zalm to oppose the Harmonized Sales Tax. With more than two-thirds of the donations coming from unions, corporations and non-profits, it's worth noting that under federal financing rules this initiative would never have gotten off the ground.

The Zalm's crew raised nearly $118,000 in support of their referendum initiative. Nearly $73,000 was in contributions, and nearly $45,000 from the "sale of Fight the HST buttons, bumper-stickers, certificates." Thankfully, as this was before the tax came into force, the Zalm didn't have to charge HST on his souvenir sales.

They spent just under $105,000, leaving them a $9,000 surplus. The biggest expense was nearly $30,000 for "convention, workshop, meeting fees and other rentals" followed by $22,000 on media advertising. Sadly, they spent nothing on a victory/thank-you party, despite the healthy surplus. These guys are just no fun at all.

Where did they get their donations from? Well, $21,618 came from individuals but the bulk of the $72,803 came from other sources. Non-profit organizations gave $18,686, followed by trade unions at $13,155 and corporations at $10,971, accounting for more than two-thirds of the amount raised.

The single biggest donor was the Family Funeral Home Association of BC, which gave a cool $10,000. Next was the Canadian Autoworkers Local 111, which gave $5,250, followed by the Council of Senior Citizen Organizations and the BC Retired Teachers Association, each at $3,000.

Finally, here's something that I'm puzzled about, and perhaps something some intrepid media can explore. I have no problem with how businesses spend their money, and how unions spend their dues is a matter for them and their members. But these donors caught my eye:

* City of Burnaby, Bonsor and Cameron Rec Centre: $2,180.30

* Sunshine Coast Regional District: $259.90

If municipal governments want to have a position on the issue, they're absolutely free to do so. But should they be donating tax dollars, or taxpayer-funded goods and services, in support of a political cause? Seems highly questionable to me.

Read the full filing:

Anti-HST campaign financial report

Related Reading:

Will B.C. have a referendum on the HST?
The HST affair showcases all that’s wrong with politics today
HST Powerplay: Bill Vander Zalm vs. Carole James?
I don't know what this HST is, but I know it's bad

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I don't know what this HST is, but I know it's bad

Interesting HST-related survey results from Ipsos Reid this morning out of British Columbia. Well, not interesting in that everyone hates it. That's no surprise. What's interesting is that, while they hate it, they also don't seem to know anything about it.

The top line numbers are no surprise. Some 78 per cent of BCers are opposed to the HST, 65 per cent of them strongly and 13 per cent of them somewhat. Some 80 per cent think the HST will have a negative impact on them personally and 85 per cent on the province in general. 62 per cent think it will be negative for small business. 40 per cent think it will be negative for big business. 55 per cent think it will be bad for the provincial economy. 59 per cent think it will put some small business owners out of business.

So, pretty much everyone thinks the HST will be bad for, well, everyone.

Here's what I found interesting, though. While British Columbians seem to feel strongly the HST is bad, they also don't seem to know anything about it, what is covered and what is not, and just how it will actually impact them.

Of a list of 10 exempt items, very few residents (6-35%) were able to correctly identify them. For example, only one-third correctly identified the exemption for basic groceries (35%), about the same number are aware that residential rent (32%), children’s items such as clothing, footwear and diapers (31%) and prescription drugs (25%) will be exempt from HST. At the bottom end, only 17% are aware of child care service exemptions, 8% for legal aid as well as books, and only 6% for music lessons.

Despite these numbers, 62 per cent said they had a good understanding of the benefits of the HST, and 75 per cent said they had a good understanding of the drawbacks. And while they think they know about the HST even though they don't, they also blame the government and the media for not communicating better about the HST. So it's a little all over the place.

I definitely agree the BC government has done a poor job communicating the nuts and bolts of the HST, and the media certainly has no interest in substantive policy-analysis. These numbers are also evidence that the deliberate misinformation and distortion campaign of the BC NDP/Bill Vander Zalm petition drive combo is working. Confuse the people and make them angry. That's their strategy, and it's clearly working.

(For those of you in Ontatrio, the provincial government has a list of specific items and how their tax treatment will change (or not), and they’ve also put out information on how it will impact people, and impact businesses.)

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HST Powerplay: Bill Vander Zalm vs. Carole James?

I don't mean to keep writing on the HST -- not when there's Chinese spies to identify, and early reviews of the fake lake to discuss -- but Vaughn Palmer has some interesting news about the anti-HST fight in B.C. this morning that should be shared with you.

The bulk of his piece today is about how the anti-HST forces, led by Vander Zalm, have apparently taken embattled BC Premier Gordon Campbell off their target list for a recall initiative. Could be because they couldn't pull it off in Point Grey, with it's combination of transient students and well-off yuppies, or it could be because they think Gordo will give up the leadership soon enough anyways, so why waste the effort.

Speaking of giving-up the leadership, what's interesting is the battle for control of the anti-HST crusade that may be brewing between the ex-Socred Vander Zalm (who ideologically certaintly has more in common with the conservative BC Libs than the NDP) and the BC NDP, led by Carole James.

While James has been content to let the Zalm take the lead during the referendum petition drive, as the campaign shifts into a recall strategy targeting government MLAs in a bid to pressure the government to pass legislation to kill the HST rather than hold a referendum, cracks are forming. Palmer reports while Vander Zalm favours a drip-drip strategy to pressure Campbell to act without topping the government, James and the NDP want wide-spread recall to topple the government and put themselves into power.

Reports Palmer:

I've heard predictions from New Democrats that they will recall the Liberals in numbers sufficient to deprive the government of its majority in the legislature, and force an immediate election, clearing the way for an NDP government by this time next year.

Some say that they will also move Vander Zalm aside and take control of the anti-HST movement, once the current petition campaign is over.

This is interesting, and such cracks were inevitable. He doesn't like the HST, but an old Socred war-horse like Vander Zalm sure doesn't want to help usher-in an NDP government either. And for the NDP, it's less about the HST than it is about unseating Campbell and claiming power. While their interests coincided for a time, they're beginning to diverge.

What will be interesting to see is if James can so easily push Vander Zalm aside and take control of the anti-HST crusade. Even if the Zalm were to agree to go quietly, I have my doubts. The success of the movement in BC has been, in part, because it hasn't been closely aligned to one party. There isn't much love out there for the BC NDP either, or for James. They're polling well now because the public is pissed with Campbell, and James is the default choice. For many, it's about pressuring the government to kill the HST, not changing the government.

I can see why the NDP might be in a hurry. With fixed election dates, the next election in BC isn't scheduled until May 2013. There's a risk the HST anger could have subsided by then, particularly if Campbell resigns in favour of a new leader that can turn the page on this. If they want to capitalize on this, wide-scale recall (the BC Libs have a 5-member cushion) to overturn the government may be their best bet. The risk, though, is the air coming out of the HST balloon if people are faced with the prospect of an NDP government.

P.S. Congratulations to the Nova Scotia Liberals for their decisive wins in two by-elections last night. They managed to pull off the win even without Jack Layton campaigning against the Nova Scotia NDP government's decision to raise the province's HST to the highest level in Canada. I'm sure Jack will bring his anti-HST campaign to Nova Scotia real soon, though, and not just Ontario and BC.

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Ontario numbers that will make Gordon Campbell cry

I was writing yesterday about the politics of the debate around the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). Well, interesting to see some polling numbers for Ontario drop this morning for Ipsos Reid. Here they are:

Ontario Liberal Party: 37 per cent

Progressive Conservatives: 32 per cent

Ontario NDP: 20 per cent

Greens: 11 per cent

Clearly it's going to take more than just HST anger to unseat the McGuinty Liberals. The Conservatives' "it's bad but we won't scrap it" position isn't credible, and the NDP will need more than anti-HST rhetoric to convince Ontarians it can govern. I'd like to think these numbers are a sign people accept and respect the need for governments to make hard choices, and that may be part of it, but I also don't think they're enamored with their alternatives.

Meanwhile, on the left coast Gordon Campbell must be looking at the Ontario numbers and sobbing softly in a dark corner of the legislature. An Angus Reid poll from earlier this month paints a bleak picture for the BC Liberals:

BC NDP: 46 per cent
BC Liberals: 26 per cent
Greens: 14 per cent
BC Conservatives: 8 per cent

And while the NDP is poised for victory currently, it should be noted this is a continuation of the see-saw nature of BC politics. Were there a credible third-party, a centrist alternative, polling shows it would win the next election. And BC has semi-workable (more workable than I thought, actually) recall and referendum legislation.

As I hinted at yesterday, and others mentioned in the comments, there are substantial differences between Ontario and B.C. I think Ontario is more steady-she-goes by nature, while B.C. is more populist rough and tumble. The HST was also rolled-out much differently in B.C., with Campbell having denied plans to harmonize during the last election and then announcing plans days after the vote.

It's the perceived dishonesty that gives the anti-HST campaign momentum in BC, as well as years of building fatigue with the Campbell government. I still think it's good policy, and that the referendum attempt to overturn it is a mistake, but I understand the anger. I just think the place to express it is the ballot (and I'm sure they'll express it there too). But a referendum to overturn good policy because you're mad at the government is a bad idea, and will be bad for the province in the long run.

Back to Ontario though, on the topic of getting the word out, McGuinty has turned to the inter-webs with this video to help do that:

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BC is hungry for an alternative

I haven’t been active at all in provincial politics since I moved to Ontario nearly five years ago. Naturally, I’m inclined to support the McGuinty Liberals (some issue by issue disagreements with them aside) but I’ve neither joined (except briefly before the last election) nor volunteered for the party, and haven’t blogged much on provincial issues either.

Could be that I have my hands full following the minority madness in Ottawa, but I also think it’s because I was spoiled growing-up in British Columbia, where provincial politics is more than a little crazy, and always entertaining (even if Campbell tried hard to make it boring again.)

From the craziness of the Vander Zalm Socreds with scandals such as the Fantasy Gardens affair, to Bingogate under the NDP’s Mike Harcourt and all the drama about Glen Clark’s deck and the fast cat ferry fiasco (alliteration is key to a good scandal), to Gordon Campbell’s Hawaiian DUI, the legislature raids and now the return of Vander Zalm and the HST drama – BC politics is never boring.

It has, however, become increasingly polarized over the years, and that has left many – myself included – unimpressed with our options and hungry for an alternative. I joined and volunteered for the BC Liberals in my teens in the mid-1990s, when it was led by Gordon Wilson (before his nuttiness was evident) and was the third-party in BC. And when it was also still what you and I would call liberal.

Then when the Socreds imploded, they essentially launched take-over of sorts and Campbell took the leadership. They still seemed liberal enough in 1996, when they lost the seat-count to Clark’s NDP (but won the popular vote). I then headed East for university and, when I came back around 2002, they weren’t so liberal anymore. In government they’d taken a sharp shift to the right, leaving many centrist Liberals feeling homeless. Some stuck it out with the BC Liberals, others voted NDP. I cast my ballot based on the local candidates, supporting and voting for both parties over the years but with enthusiasm for neither.

It’s a situation many in BC find themselves in. The BC Liberals are too right; the BC NDP too left (and not particularly welcoming to federal Liberals either, which doesn’t help). It leaves many on the sidelines, and many holding their noses to vote for the lesser evil. And neither party seems particularly inclined to appeal to this disenchanted centre.

It leads to a teeter-totter of voter support in the province. The province, when it had enough of the Harcourt/Clark years, reduced the NDP to two seats in 2001, handing 77 seats to the Liberals. They gave Campbell two more majorities but with decreasing enthusiasm and now, with their handling of the HST feeding underlying fatigue and disenchantment with the governing party, the polls show the BC NDP is again poised to win a mandate (although the election won’t be until 2013).

The opposition New Democratic Party has harnessed public anger over the harmonized sales tax to open its biggest lead since Gordon Campbell's B.C. Liberals took power in 2001, a new Angus Reid poll has found.

Conducted this week, the poll found the NDP have 47 per cent support, a commanding 18 points ahead of the governing Liberals.

The Liberals have the support of just 29 per cent of people across the province, the poll found, 17 points below their total in the election last May. The Green Party has 15 per cent support, and the B.C. Conservative Party has five per cent.

Interestingly, though, it’s not as ifBritish Columbians are suddenly enamored with Carole James and the BC NDP. It’s just that they’re really pissed at Campbell’s Liberals, and there’s no other real option.

Forty per cent of people polled described the NDP as "inefficient," and 37 per cent called it "weak."

What if there was another option, though? That’s where it gets interesting:

The poll found that a newly created centre-left party could form the government if it ran in the May 2013 election.

When asked, 34 per cent of people said they would vote for the new party, ahead of 28 per cent who said they would vote NDP. A new centre-left party would relegate the B.C. Liberals to third, the poll found.

That may sound like a surprising number, but to seasoned observers of BC politics it really shouldn’t be. There is a strong hunger for a centre-left alternative in the province, for a real Liberal party founded on core Liberal values and policies, instead of a party of conservatives usurping the Liberal name.

Could the vaunted BC Liberal coalition of right and centre (if it ever really existed other than in name) be ready to fracture? Maybe. Could we see a third party in the province, a party of the centre-left? If things get dire enough for the Campbell Liberals, it’s certainly possible we could see an exodus.

The question though is who flees though, and who do they attract. The other possibility is a strengthening of a right-wing party. Might some of the right-wing BC Liberals flee to the BC Conservative Party, or form their own alternative? The same Angus Reid poll showed a new right-wing party would guarantee an NDP majority and reduce the BC Liberals to 15% in the polls.

Even if the right fled, allowing the centre-left to reclaim the BC Liberals, the brand may be pretty tainted, sadly, at this point. A new party would seem like the better choice, with the better chance of securing voter support. It may be a question of who flees the BC Liberals first. But a centre-left party would have the best chance to form a government, drawing support from both centrist BC Liberals and BC NDP supporters who voted for the party by default. A solidly right-wing party wouldn't challenge for government.

We seem to go through these upheavals every now and again in BC. The constant, though, has been a two-party system. The BC Liberals were largely a fringe party under Wilson until the Socred takeover. We essentially traded the Socreds for the new “Liberals.”

Now we may be due for another upheaval. Whatever happens though, I hope we don’t end up with another two-party province. The ideal situation would be parties of the left, right and centre. And wherever you’d put the Greens.

BCers deserve clear choices, and they’ve been lacking for far too long.

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Gordon Campbell is poised to gut B.C.'s funding for the arts

Yesterday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper visited Victoria to address the non-prorogued BC Legislative Assembly. While there, you’d think he might have pulled BC Premier Gordon Campbell aside and told him the story of how Harper’s Conservatives lost their majority, in no small part, thanks to their short-sighted decision in the last election to gut funding for the arts.

Harper has somewhat learned his lesson; the feds have restored much of the funding or increased it in other areas, and Canadian Heritage minister James Moore has found the arts religion. Sadly, though, Campbell must not read the news, as his BC “Liberal” government is poised to table massive cuts of 90 per cent to arts funding in the next provincial funding that would decimate BC’s vibrant arts community.

The cuts actually began last fall, when citing the economic downturn the province moved to slash arts funding by 90 per cent over two years. In the face of public blowback, some of the funding was restored with gaming money, but the service plan going forward still shows 90 per cent cuts so it seems the cuts will be restored in the next budget. The cuts will take core BC provincial arts funding from $19.5 million in 2008/09 all the way down to just $2.25 million in 2010/11, according to the service plan.

While $20 million may not seem like a lot of money in government terms (and BC was already one of the lowest per capita arts spenders in the country), the cuts are devastating for BC arts groups. For them, government funding is a huge multiplier that allows them to leverage private sector donations. These groups also operate on very thin margins as it is; cutting government funding can be a death knell.

What’s more, government arts funding is an investment that pays dividends for the government. A report from the BC government itself showed that for every dollar invested, $1.36 comes back in taxes. And the Conference Board of Canada and City of Vancouver estimate every dollar spend on arts municipally generated $7 to $13 in economic spinoff.

These draconian cuts to arts funding by the Campbell Liberals just don’t make sense. That’s a view shared by the BC Legislature's Standing Committee on Finance and Government Services, which, as part of its pre-budget consultations, in November unanimously called on the government to restore arts funding to 2008/09 levels. That committee recommendation was backed by all the Liberals on the committee including the MLA in my home riding in BC, the Comox Valley’s Don McRae.

Heck, even Conservative minister James Moore opposes these cuts:

…Moore made a forceful case that arts funding is an essential element in an economic stimulus program during difficult times. "This has to be a central component if we're going to deal with economic recovery," he said.

"There's a strong fiscally conservative argument for supporting the arts," Moore added, explaining that writers create things of social and economic value out of little more than their own knowledge and imagination. Moore said the cultural sector employs 650,000 people in Canada, twice the number employed in either forestry or agriculture, and he declared that infrastructure without the kind of activity that artists provide is "culturally and economically soulless."

The Harper government, Barrack Obama, Dalton McGuinty in Ontario, Jean Charest in Quebec – they’ve all actually increased arts funding as part of their economic stimulus packages. BC, sadly, appears to be the odd-province out unless Campbell listens to the growing chorus, including much of his caucus, and restores this arts funding in the next budget.

There is still time though to send a message to Campbell (premier@gov.bc.ca) and finance minister Colin Hansen (colin.hansen.mla@leg.bc.ca) that they should change course and restore arts funding in the upcoming provincial budget.

If you want to know how you can get involved, check out the Facebook group: BC Hearts the Arts, and you can also visit Alliance for Arts and Culture, a Vancouver-based organization helping to rally support for overturning the cuts. Also check out Creativity Counts, a blogsite following the advocacy campaign.

Today, BC is welcoming the world for the Olympics. The arts will be a big part of the opening ceremonies tonight, and the cultural olympiad will run parallel to the sporting events. It would be a shame if the Olympic legacy was tarnished by short-sighted decisions.

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B.C.'s growing salmon crisis

There’s a growing salmon crisis in British Columbia, and you can be assured it’s going to be an election issue on the left coast this fall, or whenever the next campaign comes. The fishery is a critical industry to the province that crosses many levels: commercial fishing, tourism, First Nations. The ripples of the apparent collapse of the Fraser River sockeye run, which DFO is now projecting will number 1.7 million sockeye after earlier projecting 13 million, will be widespread.

Liberal MP Ujjal Dosanjh drew attention to the issue recently:

Ujjal Dosanjh, a Liberal MP whose riding lies near the north arm of the Fraser, said Thursday the situation is grave enough that it deserves to be the focus of an intergovernmental conference involving federal, state and provincial representatives.

The collapse of the Fraser run “is going to have an impact on the aboriginal community, the commercial fishery and potentially the ecosystem as well – and that's pretty significant,” said Mr. Dosanjh.

“Governments on both sides of the border [need] to come together to look at this situation and determine if there's anything we can do to ensure this doesn't continue.”

And a column by Stephen Hume in the Vancouver Sun today also draws attention to the issue:

Have we so degraded the Fraser that we are now in the early stages of an Atlantic cod scenario for British Columbia's iconic wild salmon? Is there something else going on in this enormous ecosystem that has implications for us humans who are perched atop the food chain, perhaps more precariously than we like to think?

I don’t claim to have the answers on what is a very complicated situation, and one that is fraught with sensitive and politically dicey questions (farmed vs. wild salmon, commercial fishers vs. sport fishers vs. First Nations treaty rights, and more).

But I do know that this is a very serious situation that isn’t getting the attention it deserves from either the provincial or federal governments. And I know how critical the salmon industry is to the province, and the ripples its collapse would have.

Sport fishing is critical to our tourism industry, with anglers from around the world spending big money to come into places like Campbell River to hook a big salmon. I know the commercial fishing industry is a major economic driver for the province, particularly small communities already hit hard by the softwood lumber dispute. These communities and families are struggling as it is. And I know the salmon fishery is a culturally vital way of life for many of our First Nations communities.

So I think Dosanjh’s call for a salmon summit is very important. The stakeholders need to all come to the table with the various levels of government, and particularly the scientists at DFO, to talk about just what the heck is going on here, and how we can all work together to safeguard the resource for our generation, and for future ones.

It’s past time that the profile of this issue was raised.

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Taking stock

After scarfing down some chicken fingers I’m off to the airport to catch a flight back to Toronto, and my regular life. I plan to arrive very early at YVR, mix a few strong rum and cokes in the Maple Leaf Lounge and pour over the newspapers to look more closely at just what happened.

I’ll save big picture prognostications for another post; I’ve not had a chance yet to look to closely at the election results. I spent some 15 hours yesterday scrutineering at a polling station in Burnaby, 12 hours of voting and then three hours for the ballots to be counted (and some math issues resolved). By the time I emerged from the communications black-out, of course, it was all over.

One last note on scrutineering, though. If ever you need your faith in democracy restored, spend some time volunteering to scrutineer a poll for a political party, or to work a poll for Elections Canada. These are regular people taking time out of their lives to ensure Canadians can vote, and vote fairly. There’s no partisan rancor there. I had great talks during the day with my Conservative colleague, and my NDP colleague gave me a ride back to the office after we were done. With all the nastiness in the blog world at times, it’s nice to know in the real world, it’s just regular people with differently deeply-held views about what’s best for Canada.

Obviously, this wasn’t the result we were hoping for. A few weeks ago it was looking very bleak (much bleaker) in BC, but post-debate we saw a strong surge in Liberal support in the province. It was fluid though, and the question was would that support hold. It didn’t; I think many people made a decision at the ballot box and, this time, it didn’t break our way. That happens.

We’re still sending five great Liberal MPs from BC to Ottawa. I will never again doubt Hedy Fry, she’s a machine. Ujjal Dosanjh gave us a scare, but he’s a good man. And Joyce Murray, another squeaker, with Sukh Dhaliwal and Keith Martin back too. I really feel for good people like Don Bell in North Vancouver, and I really thought Briony Penn was going to take it in Saanich-Gulf Islands. And I especially feel for Bill Cunningham, he’s a good man and would have made a great MP, for Burnaby and for Canada. I spent the last week in Burnaby-Douglas and they had a great team that ran a great campaign.

Overall, I’m actually really proud of the regional campaign that we ran in British Columbia. About a week before the election call, out of the blue, I got an offer to come out and join the campaign. Surprisingly my employers agreed to let me leave for five weeks, and I got to come out and work with a great group of people from whom I learned a lot.

It was a long haul of 12-hour days, 7 days a week, a dedicated group of Liberals from all different backgrounds fighting hard. We did a lot of great research, pushed-out a lot of communications products, defined the media narrative in BC for much of the campaign, put on some of the best leader’s tour stops in the country, and ran a very active auxiliary tour. And we put out some great Made in BC policy too. It was a roller coaster of emotions, from feeling great with early Harper gaffes and NDP candidate losses to being deeply concerned as we hit out low-point in the polls, then rising again post-debate when Dion caught his second wind and the polls seemed to turn out way.

It was a great experience, and even if we didn’t get the result we’d hoped for I take pride in knowing that we left it all on the floor, and I can’t think of anything we would have done differently. I sincerely thank those responsible for bringing me out, and everyone I had a chance to work with.

My chicken fingers are done, so I’ll just end with this. I don’t know what the future may hold for we Liberals. But as long as Stephane Dion wants to be our leader, I’ve got his back. More soon.

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A few predictions

The polls are incredibly fluid at the moment, and by all indications no one is particularly firm in their voting convictions. I like the trend for the Liberals the last week and a bit, but we may have run out of time. Tomorrow evening, we'll know. Anything from a slim Conservative majority to a Liberal minority is still possible.

I still think a Liberal minority is possible, but it wouldn't be the safe bet at this point. I think we're in good shape in the Maratimes, we'll gain in Quebec, and we'll be fine in BC. I think this election will come down to Ontario, where things seem very much in flux.

I won't make an overall prediction. Since I've been out in BC for this campaign though, I will make a few predictions for this province, namely a few ridings where I think there will be upsets here.

Saanich-Gulf Islands: This riding will go to Briony Penn and the Liberals. With the withdrawal of the NDP candidate, the progressive vote is uniting behind Penn. The NDP MLA for the riding is endorsing Penn and urging NDPers to vote Liberal, and she has recieved the endorsement of key environmental organizations to defeat an MP that's very bad for the environment in Gary Lunn.

Vancouver Island North: It's a toss-up, but I'm going to predict a victory for Conservative John Duncan over the NDP incumbent, Catherine Bell. It will be very, very tight though.

Fleetwood-Port Kells: Liberal candidate Brenda Locke very nearly defeated Conservative MP Nina Grewal in 2005. She's been gaining support and this time, I think she will.

Burnaby-Douglas: Another very tight riding in 2005, with NDP MP Bill Siksay barely hanging-on over Liberal Bill Cunningham. I've been volunteering in this riding this week and things are looking very good for the Liberals, so I'm going to predict the upset and call it for Cunningham.

Kamploops-Thompson-Cariboo: I'm hearing about growing NDP strength in the BC Interior. They already hold BC Southern Interior, so a pick-up in the region isn't outside the realm. It's an upset, but I'm going to predict a victory for the NDP's Michael Crawford in this riding.

Overall, I'm going to predict 9-11 Liberal seats in BC. Nine would equal the 2005 showing, before the depature of David Emerson and Blair Wilson. We've surged here over the last week and a bit, but things are still very fluid. It's been one crazy election.

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Polling B.C.

Mustel Group came out with its latest polling numbers for British Columbia(opens a PDF). While on the surface the numbers look similar to the federal numbers, given regional factors in the province things could be rather interesting.

While some polling firms have had the Liberals in the lead in B.C., Mustel has the Cons in front at 37, with the Liberals at 30, the NDP at 21 and the Greens at 12. Here’s the chart:

The disappointment there has to be for the NDP, and also that the Cons aren’t stronger. The Libs are also off historic Mustel highs. That said, the Cons have been gaining at NDP expense. From the last election the NDP has dropped 8 points; Mustel has said most of that has gone to the Cons. Sounds odd, I know, but a lot of the B.C. electorate is anti-establishment, and the Liberals are still seen as the Eastern establishment, so swings between Cons and NDP are not uncommon. The recent NDP swings have been stark though, from 20 in March, a peak of 29 in June, and then a dive back down to 20 for October.

Despite gaining NDP support however, the Cons are still exactly where they were last election, meaning they’ve lost support elsewhere too, balancing the NDP gains. The Liberals are up one point, but look to have a fairly steady base to build on at 30-33 per cent. Also interestingly the Greens have been on a steady upward trend, from 5 in the election up to 12 today. Not seat territory, but enough to play spoiler. Also, with the May/Dion alliance it will be interesting to see where that 12 per cent goes on e-day; it may bode well for candidates like Briony Penn in Saanich-Gulf Islands.

To truly make sense of these numbers though we’d have to see where they break down. The Liberals are largely a non-player in a lot of interior and coastal ridings, where the Cons and NDP have and will likely continue to fight it out. If the NDP is truly losing support in B.C. we could see ridings like Skeena-BV (Nathan Cullen), Vancouver Island North (Catherine Bell) flip Conservative, possibly Nanaimo-Cowichan as well (Jean Crowder).

The Liberal vote in B.C. tends to be very efficient and urbanized, and in these ridings our opposition isn’t generally the Cons, but the NDP, putting ridings like Victoria (Denise Savoie) and Burnaby-New Westminster (Peter Julian) on the table, and making it a little easier to reclaim Vancouver-Kingsway from the Cons (David Emerson). It may also be time to finally unseat Nina Grewal in Fleetwood-Port Kells.

Looking briefly at some of the other numbers provided in the polls, here’s the approval figures for Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion (none were provided for other leaders):

If I were to spin here for a moment, although I think it’s sensible spin, Dion’s disapproval rating is only 4 points higher than Harper’s, and given that Harper is the PM spending billions of taxpayer dollars, and millions on attack ads targeting Dion, that’s pretty darned good. The big number is 39 per cent no opinion on Dion: that’s a lot of room for growth. On the downside, the 7 month trend is troubling, and should give the party pause.

On the government’s approval on issues, on the environment they’re 45approve/44disapprove, crime 47/38, Afghanistan 28/47.

And if you’re interested in the fine print, 851 BC adults were polled Oct. 10-22, with a MOE of +/- 3.4 per cent. And undecideds were 15 per cent.

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Beautifully Liberal British Columbia

With all this talk about Liberal fortunes in certain provinces, I think it's appropriate to pause and consider just how well the Liberals are doing in my home province of British Columbia.

Last week's Decima poll (conducted Sept. 27 thru Oct. 1) put the Liberals in the lead in B.C. at 33 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives at 29 per cent, with the NDP fading to third.

"These numbers provide further evidence of what we have been hearing on the ground for months, people in our province are growing tired of being ignored by the Harper government. We need a government that will support our communities hit hard by the mountain pine beetle, a government that actually believes in environmental sustainability, a government that has a strong vision for BC's leadership role in Canada. Only the Liberal Party led by Stéphane Dion will offer this kind of government. Stéphane Dion's love for Canada and message of hope is resonating with British Columbians" said Pam McDonald, B.C. Campaign Co-Chair.

Stephane Dion has made a number of well-received visits to the province since he became leader, and Michael Ingatieff has been a regular visitor as well. Iggy will be in Vancouver tomorrow actually for a fundraiser at the Vancouver Acquarium.

Indeed, the province has been a major focus for the Liberals for a number of years, with a number of star candidates recruited in past elections. Some successful, like Ujal Dosanjh. Some not, like Dave Haggard and Miles Richardson. Others, well, David Emerson has been in two straight cabinets. Sure, the latest one isn't Liberal, but still...

The popular, B.C.-focused 'Made in B.C.' policy agendas have also been well received (so well the Cons tried to copy it last election with a pale imitation), and contributed to the results in the last two elections that saw the Liberals gain seats in the province, and the Conservatives lose seats.

With the hard work being done in the province by Dion and the Liberal team in B.C., which according to these poll results looks to be paying off, it looks like the trend seems to be continuing with good potential to expand our seat count in the province in the next election.

We need to turn things around in Quebec, I don't minimize that. But across the rest of the country we're in pretty good shape and, indeed, as in B.C. there's a lot of bright spots. Any gains the Cons make in Quebec will likely be wiped out by loses in B.C., the Prairies, Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

While we obsess over Quebec, let's not forget the good work being done on the left coast.

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Things I've missed about B.C.

I'm once again A BCer in BC, at least for a little while. Arrived back in the Comox Valley on Wednesday for a little vacation and to visit the family, and I'm here till next Sunday. Good to breath that fresh, smog free salty ocean air once again, if only temporarily.

A few things I've missed about the Left Coast:

The ocean

The mountains

The doggy

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