Who wants to run the HST Yes campaign?

I'm on the record as believing the HST is the right policy for British Columbia (and Ontario and elsewhere), despite the flawed implementation on the left coast. However, with the tide of anger against the HST in B.C. seeming to make its defeat in a referendum next fall almost inevitable, I support Christy Clark's proposal to put the HST to another vote in the legislature in the spring, which could see the HST killed sooner. My feeling is if the public will is clear, government should listen instead of prolonging the issue unnecessarily.

Just how clear the public mood is on the HST is becoming increasingly, well, unclear. New polling from Angus Reid indicates the HST's defeat in a referendum may no longer be the slam-dunk fait accompli it once seemed.

As the weeks progress, support for abolishing the harmonized sales tax (HST) continues to erode. More than half of British Columbians (54%) would still vote to extinguish the HST, but support is down 10 points since early December. One third of BC residents (35%, +5) would cast a ballot to keep the HST, while 11 per cent are undecided.

While women continue to support abandoning the HST by an almost 2-to-1 margin, the race has tightened considerably among men (48% would extinguish it, 42% would keep it).
...
The one key change from early December is the erosion of support for the abolition of the HST. Men and respondents in affluent households are slowly coming on board with the idea that the tax should be kept, so the final decision on whether to proceed with a free vote in the Legislative Assembly—or hold the referendum at an earlier date—will be particularly important for whoever becomes British Columbia’s 35th Premier.

There was another recent poll that showed a strong desire from a lot of BCers for more information on the HST ahead of the referendum, which would seem to indicate both that people are becoming more engaged, and that they're not satisfied with the information they've gotten on sales tax harmonization from either the government, the media, or the anti-HST campaigners.

While the polling shows an erosion of anti-HST sentiment and appears to show a referendum could be winnable, and certain members of the punditry and academia are shaming the political class for backing down from the fight, I would strike one major note of caution to those who think the HST could survive a referendum.

I was talking to a politically astute friend from the left coast last week, and he raised a very good point I haven't heard discussed elsewhere: even if the polling is close, get out the vote would be a nightmare for the HST yes campaign.

Let's remember that we're not talking about a referendum in conjunction with a general election here. We're talking about a standalone referendum on the HST. Voter turnout is going to be a challenge for each side, as they try to motivate people to take time out of their lives to vote in a referendum. It will all be about get out the vote (GOTV).

While it may be getting close to 50-50 in polling, answering the vote or a web panel is one thing, and physically going to cast a ballot is quite another. When it comes to motivation to go out and vote, it's fair to conclude though that the anti-HST crowd has an advantage. If you think the HST is an evil tax increase that costs you money, you're motivated to go vote. If you think harmonization is sound fiscal policy, the impetus to vote is a little lower.

The problem is that the HST's impact on the street creates a more natural anti-HST constituency. You see it at the till, it hits you when you buy a house. The negatives are visible. The positives are less visible and more abstract. The most immediate benefit is for business owners in reduction of bookeeping and other expenses; business owners are fewer in number than the public at large. And the benefit for the public, more competitive businesses creating more jobs, is less visible and hard to link directly to sales tax haronization.

There's also the question of who will step up and run the HST Yes campaign. The No side is clearly defined. The government's role is limited by legislation, leaving it to business to step up, or not.

Point being, despite agreeing with the policy, and even with the tightening polling, I wouldn't envy the task facing the Yes to HST campaign team. It may be a fight worth fighting in the abstract, but on the ground, with the GOTV challenge it seems more than a little hopeless.

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Can Christy Clark move BC past the HST?

To most that follow British Columbia politics from afar, myself included, it’s more than a little surprising that, with all the drama over the last year or two, the BC Liberals stand a more than decent chance of winning the next election.

There is one big caveat though: the BC Liberals need to get out from under and away from the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). When she launched her campaign for the BC Liberal leadership last week, Christy Clark presented one scenario that would seem to offer the party the chance to do just that:

“Let us consider putting the proposed referendum question to a truly free vote of the Legislative Assembly. And you know how that question goes: that this house is in favour of extinguishing the harmonized sales tax. Now if this process is successful it would put the HST behind us by March 31st. If it’s successful, we would notify the federal government immediately of our intention to withdraw after the 18 months notice that’s required in the agreement. We would start to negotiate with them to get out earlier than the five-year agreement currently allows. And unfortunately, it would mean going back to the GST and the PST. But we won’t revisit the HST for another five years. It is time for British Columbia to have certainty around this question.”

“After almost a year, the public still hates the HST. And I think we need to face some hard realities here. And that is if this goes to a referendum, a real referendum, the HST will almost certainly fail. We need to take our heads out of the sand on that, and we need to get on with restoring our economy. No one is served by uncertainty.”

Personally, I think sales tax harmonization makes good economic sense and good policy sense. The devil is in the details, and you need to do everything you can to ensure it’s as close to cost-neutral as possible for taxpayers, but it makes sense on all kinds of levels. Less paperwork for businesses, less paperwork for government. And I think undoing it will be a major logistical and procedural headache.

In BC, though, the implementation was clearly bungled. After telling the public harmonization wasn’t on the agenda during the election campaign, just days later suddenly plans to harmonize were announced. It reeked of dishonesty. While it belatedly began to try to sell the public on the merits of the HST, it was never able to get over that initial perception of dishonesty.

In any democracy, you must listen to the will of the citizens, and the people of B.C. seem clear that the HST has got to go. The government has lost the battle on this one, and it’s time to move on. Prolonging this process through the referendum next fall would be pointless, and would only prolong the economic uncertainty while seeing time and resources wasted fighting a lost cause.

Clark hasn’t committed to a course of action on the HST – she plans to consult party members and the public in the weeks ahead – but her outlined option seems the best way to move the province forward and allow it to put the HST behind it. If the legislature votes to kill the HST the referendum becomes unnecessary and the process of unwinding the tax can begin.

I do have one big question though, and that’s what of the $1.6 billion in transition funding that the federal government sent to the province to sweeten the deal? It seems safe to assume the feds are going to want that money back; just saying “keep it” would hardly be fair to the other provinces. I doubt the feds would take a super hard line and demand it all back at once; this would be part of the negotiation but I could see it being paid back over time or applied over time against future transfer payments. Still, it’s going to but a crunch on the province’s budget and necessitate some tough choices that need to be part of the debate.

Anyway, here’s the video from Clark’s leadership campaign launch last week:

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Campbell’s departure could dash NDP dreams

I've lived in Ontario for five years now but I’ve never really gotten involved in provincial politics here. I think it’s because, having come from the always entertaining and wacky world of BC politics, Ontario seems pretty dull by comparison. Certainly watching the HST drama from afar has been far more interesting than some supposed drama about Dalton McGuinty and hydro rates or something.

It’s hard to know where to start. Arguably the most electorally successful premier in BC history in Gordon Campbell, who survived a drunk-driving charge while in office, only to be felled by a caucus and taxpayer revolt. A taxpayer revolt led by Bill Vander Zalm, a former premier who presided over the destruction of the once-mighty Social Credit brand and left office in disgrace and mockery. And an opposition party in the BC NDP that, with the government at historic lows in the polls, seemed more interested in knifing its own leader, Carole James.

The latest development, Campbell’s resignation as Premier, was both inevitable and surprising. He tried to save himself with a televised infomercial a few weeks ago, offering large personal tax cuts, but the damage was done. With a caucus revolt brewing, Campbell recognized the writing was on the wall and decided to go as gracefully as possible.

Campbell’s departure triggers what should be a pretty interesting leadership race to replace him with all kinds of names being thrown out, from current minister like Kevin Falcon to past ministers like Christy Clark, as well as popular mayors and even federal Conservative cabinet ministers like James Moore.

Surprisingly, polling shows that, unlike when Rita Johnston beat-out Grace McCarthy for the Socred leadership after Vander Zalm ran the party into the ground, the BC Liberal leadership may still be a prize worth winning.

If Campbell had stubbornly decided to stay on the BC Liberal brand seemed destined to join Social Credit in the political graveyard, its support splitting between the BC Conservatives, the BC NDP and possibly a new centrist alternative. That erosion could still happen at a slower pace, but by falling on his sword Campbell has given his party a chance to live on.

New polling from Angus Reid taken after his televised infomercial but before his resignation indicates Campbell’s last-ditch hail-mary didn’t land, but he stands a good chance taking a lot of the voter animosity with him when he leaves the legislature.

The NDP still has a strong lead in the horserace, 47 per cent to 26 per cent over the BC Liberals, with the Greens and Conservatives tied at 10 per cent. And if the HST referendum goes ahead, 66 per cent will vote to abolish, 21 per cent would keep and 13 per cent are undecided.

The poll shows while they liked the policy promises in Campbell’s infomercial they’ve completely lost faith that he’ll keep his word on anything, with 66 per cent calling him unconvincing.

There is, however, a lot of underlying weakness evident in the NDP numbers. While Campbell scores an anemic 12 per cent leadership approval rating, James isn’t a whole lot better at 25 per cent.

And here’s an interesting set of numbers. While only six per cent said they’d like to see the next election return a BC Liberal government led by Campbell, remove Campbell from the equation and the NDP lead is only preferred 32 per cent to 28 per cent.

While the level of remaining resilience in the BC Liberal brand is surprising, the NDP weakness isn’t. Their numbers are very soft. For many years BC has been a two-party system, swinging back and forth between two defaults. People are pissed off with Campbell’s Liberals and James and the NDP are the default choice, but she’s still the leader and the party the electorate soundly rejected in the last election.

With a new leader at the helm of the BC Liberals and a few years to govern before the next election, that 47 to 22 NDP lead will shrink and this could be a very tight race once more. It will depend, of course, on who the new leader is and, more importantly, what they do with the HST. While the HST is the right policy, the people seem to have spoken pretty clearly and the referendum seems a formality at this point. If a new leader reverses the HST it's a new ball-game. If they try to sell it in a referendum battle, it will be closer but I don’t see them pulling it out.

Finally, even if a new leader can bring the BC Liberals off of life support, it remains clear that British Columbians remain utterly unsatisfied with their status quo options. While 32 per cent want the NDP to former the next government and 28 per cent the Campbell-less Liberals, the leader, with 34 per cent, as not sure/none of these.

Campbell’s departure may slow the process, but another dramatic shake-up of the BC political landscape remains inevitable. And it’s still very much needed.

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Vander Zalm's anti-HST fight financed by undertakers and unions

Elections BC has posted the financial filings for the referendum initiative launched by Bill Vander Zalm to oppose the Harmonized Sales Tax. With more than two-thirds of the donations coming from unions, corporations and non-profits, it's worth noting that under federal financing rules this initiative would never have gotten off the ground.

The Zalm's crew raised nearly $118,000 in support of their referendum initiative. Nearly $73,000 was in contributions, and nearly $45,000 from the "sale of Fight the HST buttons, bumper-stickers, certificates." Thankfully, as this was before the tax came into force, the Zalm didn't have to charge HST on his souvenir sales.

They spent just under $105,000, leaving them a $9,000 surplus. The biggest expense was nearly $30,000 for "convention, workshop, meeting fees and other rentals" followed by $22,000 on media advertising. Sadly, they spent nothing on a victory/thank-you party, despite the healthy surplus. These guys are just no fun at all.

Where did they get their donations from? Well, $21,618 came from individuals but the bulk of the $72,803 came from other sources. Non-profit organizations gave $18,686, followed by trade unions at $13,155 and corporations at $10,971, accounting for more than two-thirds of the amount raised.

The single biggest donor was the Family Funeral Home Association of BC, which gave a cool $10,000. Next was the Canadian Autoworkers Local 111, which gave $5,250, followed by the Council of Senior Citizen Organizations and the BC Retired Teachers Association, each at $3,000.

Finally, here's something that I'm puzzled about, and perhaps something some intrepid media can explore. I have no problem with how businesses spend their money, and how unions spend their dues is a matter for them and their members. But these donors caught my eye:

* City of Burnaby, Bonsor and Cameron Rec Centre: $2,180.30

* Sunshine Coast Regional District: $259.90

If municipal governments want to have a position on the issue, they're absolutely free to do so. But should they be donating tax dollars, or taxpayer-funded goods and services, in support of a political cause? Seems highly questionable to me.

Read the full filing:

Anti-HST campaign financial report

Related Reading:

Will B.C. have a referendum on the HST?
The HST affair showcases all that’s wrong with politics today
HST Powerplay: Bill Vander Zalm vs. Carole James?
I don't know what this HST is, but I know it's bad

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I don't know what this HST is, but I know it's bad

Interesting HST-related survey results from Ipsos Reid this morning out of British Columbia. Well, not interesting in that everyone hates it. That's no surprise. What's interesting is that, while they hate it, they also don't seem to know anything about it.

The top line numbers are no surprise. Some 78 per cent of BCers are opposed to the HST, 65 per cent of them strongly and 13 per cent of them somewhat. Some 80 per cent think the HST will have a negative impact on them personally and 85 per cent on the province in general. 62 per cent think it will be negative for small business. 40 per cent think it will be negative for big business. 55 per cent think it will be bad for the provincial economy. 59 per cent think it will put some small business owners out of business.

So, pretty much everyone thinks the HST will be bad for, well, everyone.

Here's what I found interesting, though. While British Columbians seem to feel strongly the HST is bad, they also don't seem to know anything about it, what is covered and what is not, and just how it will actually impact them.

Of a list of 10 exempt items, very few residents (6-35%) were able to correctly identify them. For example, only one-third correctly identified the exemption for basic groceries (35%), about the same number are aware that residential rent (32%), children’s items such as clothing, footwear and diapers (31%) and prescription drugs (25%) will be exempt from HST. At the bottom end, only 17% are aware of child care service exemptions, 8% for legal aid as well as books, and only 6% for music lessons.

Despite these numbers, 62 per cent said they had a good understanding of the benefits of the HST, and 75 per cent said they had a good understanding of the drawbacks. And while they think they know about the HST even though they don't, they also blame the government and the media for not communicating better about the HST. So it's a little all over the place.

I definitely agree the BC government has done a poor job communicating the nuts and bolts of the HST, and the media certainly has no interest in substantive policy-analysis. These numbers are also evidence that the deliberate misinformation and distortion campaign of the BC NDP/Bill Vander Zalm petition drive combo is working. Confuse the people and make them angry. That's their strategy, and it's clearly working.

(For those of you in Ontatrio, the provincial government has a list of specific items and how their tax treatment will change (or not), and they’ve also put out information on how it will impact people, and impact businesses.)

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HST Powerplay: Bill Vander Zalm vs. Carole James?

I don't mean to keep writing on the HST -- not when there's Chinese spies to identify, and early reviews of the fake lake to discuss -- but Vaughn Palmer has some interesting news about the anti-HST fight in B.C. this morning that should be shared with you.

The bulk of his piece today is about how the anti-HST forces, led by Vander Zalm, have apparently taken embattled BC Premier Gordon Campbell off their target list for a recall initiative. Could be because they couldn't pull it off in Point Grey, with it's combination of transient students and well-off yuppies, or it could be because they think Gordo will give up the leadership soon enough anyways, so why waste the effort.

Speaking of giving-up the leadership, what's interesting is the battle for control of the anti-HST crusade that may be brewing between the ex-Socred Vander Zalm (who ideologically certaintly has more in common with the conservative BC Libs than the NDP) and the BC NDP, led by Carole James.

While James has been content to let the Zalm take the lead during the referendum petition drive, as the campaign shifts into a recall strategy targeting government MLAs in a bid to pressure the government to pass legislation to kill the HST rather than hold a referendum, cracks are forming. Palmer reports while Vander Zalm favours a drip-drip strategy to pressure Campbell to act without topping the government, James and the NDP want wide-spread recall to topple the government and put themselves into power.

Reports Palmer:

I've heard predictions from New Democrats that they will recall the Liberals in numbers sufficient to deprive the government of its majority in the legislature, and force an immediate election, clearing the way for an NDP government by this time next year.

Some say that they will also move Vander Zalm aside and take control of the anti-HST movement, once the current petition campaign is over.

This is interesting, and such cracks were inevitable. He doesn't like the HST, but an old Socred war-horse like Vander Zalm sure doesn't want to help usher-in an NDP government either. And for the NDP, it's less about the HST than it is about unseating Campbell and claiming power. While their interests coincided for a time, they're beginning to diverge.

What will be interesting to see is if James can so easily push Vander Zalm aside and take control of the anti-HST crusade. Even if the Zalm were to agree to go quietly, I have my doubts. The success of the movement in BC has been, in part, because it hasn't been closely aligned to one party. There isn't much love out there for the BC NDP either, or for James. They're polling well now because the public is pissed with Campbell, and James is the default choice. For many, it's about pressuring the government to kill the HST, not changing the government.

I can see why the NDP might be in a hurry. With fixed election dates, the next election in BC isn't scheduled until May 2013. There's a risk the HST anger could have subsided by then, particularly if Campbell resigns in favour of a new leader that can turn the page on this. If they want to capitalize on this, wide-scale recall (the BC Libs have a 5-member cushion) to overturn the government may be their best bet. The risk, though, is the air coming out of the HST balloon if people are faced with the prospect of an NDP government.

P.S. Congratulations to the Nova Scotia Liberals for their decisive wins in two by-elections last night. They managed to pull off the win even without Jack Layton campaigning against the Nova Scotia NDP government's decision to raise the province's HST to the highest level in Canada. I'm sure Jack will bring his anti-HST campaign to Nova Scotia real soon, though, and not just Ontario and BC.

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Ontario numbers that will make Gordon Campbell cry

I was writing yesterday about the politics of the debate around the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). Well, interesting to see some polling numbers for Ontario drop this morning for Ipsos Reid. Here they are:

Ontario Liberal Party: 37 per cent

Progressive Conservatives: 32 per cent

Ontario NDP: 20 per cent

Greens: 11 per cent

Clearly it's going to take more than just HST anger to unseat the McGuinty Liberals. The Conservatives' "it's bad but we won't scrap it" position isn't credible, and the NDP will need more than anti-HST rhetoric to convince Ontarians it can govern. I'd like to think these numbers are a sign people accept and respect the need for governments to make hard choices, and that may be part of it, but I also don't think they're enamored with their alternatives.

Meanwhile, on the left coast Gordon Campbell must be looking at the Ontario numbers and sobbing softly in a dark corner of the legislature. An Angus Reid poll from earlier this month paints a bleak picture for the BC Liberals:

BC NDP: 46 per cent
BC Liberals: 26 per cent
Greens: 14 per cent
BC Conservatives: 8 per cent

And while the NDP is poised for victory currently, it should be noted this is a continuation of the see-saw nature of BC politics. Were there a credible third-party, a centrist alternative, polling shows it would win the next election. And BC has semi-workable (more workable than I thought, actually) recall and referendum legislation.

As I hinted at yesterday, and others mentioned in the comments, there are substantial differences between Ontario and B.C. I think Ontario is more steady-she-goes by nature, while B.C. is more populist rough and tumble. The HST was also rolled-out much differently in B.C., with Campbell having denied plans to harmonize during the last election and then announcing plans days after the vote.

It's the perceived dishonesty that gives the anti-HST campaign momentum in BC, as well as years of building fatigue with the Campbell government. I still think it's good policy, and that the referendum attempt to overturn it is a mistake, but I understand the anger. I just think the place to express it is the ballot (and I'm sure they'll express it there too). But a referendum to overturn good policy because you're mad at the government is a bad idea, and will be bad for the province in the long run.

Back to Ontario though, on the topic of getting the word out, McGuinty has turned to the inter-webs with this video to help do that:

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The HST affair showcases all that’s wrong with politics today

If you’re looking for a case-study for all that’s wrong with modern politics in this country, one issue that is a microcosm of all the practices, methods and tends contributing to the degradation of political debate in Canada, then you can’t do any better than the “debate” around the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST).

At the federal level, you’ve got the Conservatives who have sent billions of dollars to Ontario and B.C. to sweeten the deal encouraging them to harmonize, while their backbenchers insist no, that’s a provincial thing, nothing to do with us, we think it sucks. You’ve got the Liberals who pushed harmonization in government and don’t want to piss-off their cousins in Ontario but, at the same time, would dearly love to capitalize on the populist anti-HST feeling, result: a muddied position that pleases few. Luckily the NDP aren’t troubled by ideological consistency, the party that never met a tax it didn’t like will oppose this one in Ontario and B.C. for pure politics, while ignoring that the Nova Scotia NDP government just jacked-up their HST to the highest level in Canada. And the BQ say we’re cool with the HST, just as long as you give a few billion to Quebec because they made changes to their tax system that aren’t really the same but, hey, give us money.

Then there’s the provincial level. In Ontario, you’ve got the McGuinty Liberals only seeming to start to get serious about selling this thing to the public and counter-acting some of the hysteria out there. You’ve got Tim Hudak’s Conservatives breaking with their federal cousins to oppose the HST, even though they can’t seem to articulate why it’s bad policy and won’t even promise to repeal it if elected. And then there’s the Ontario NDP, blind in their opposition and happy to distort and misinform.

Out in BC, Gordon Campbell’s Conservaliberals are facing more public outcry because they seemed to rule out harmonization during the last election, then announced they were harmonizing mere days after the ballots were cast. They thought they could ride-out the storm but are now waking-up to some serious trouble. Former Socred Bill Vander Zalm, of all people, who left the premiership in disgrace, is leading a popular revolt against the tax, with the support of the BC NDP (strange bedfellows) that could lead to a referendum to repeal the HST there. But Vander Zalm and the BC NDP (unlike their Ontario cousins, they could actually form government so they need to face a few more serious questions) don’t seem willing to address how this would happen: how would you revert the tax system back, and how about the billion dollars in harmonization funding the feds will want back. Which hospitals will you close to find that money? They just want you angry, they don't want you thinking.

Instead of a debate of facts around the HST, we’ve been treated to mass hysteria. It’s like the ugly baby with no parents. The federal government doesn’t want it. Ontario has been low-key about selling it; B.C. even more so. And the opposition parties have all been more interested in stoking populist fervor to paint this as a tax hike instead of opposing on policy grounds, and proposing reforms or alternatives, or just what they'd do differently. Or even how they'd repeal it, and what that would mean.

Myself, I think the timing was bad (and in BC, it was handled stupidly) but sales tax harmonization is good policy. It’s more efficient, and will save government and business money. Value-added taxes are just more efficient than taxes on production, or on income. Some items will cost more for consumers in the short-term, but it will net-out in the long-run as savings are passed on, investments are made and new jobs are created. This has been the case in every other jurisdiction in Canada where the HST has been implemented. I think there is room for tinkering and adjustment, but overall it’s good policy that should be supported.

There’s plenty of room to debate that, I just wish the debate would be on the facts and on the policy, not on hysteria. To that end, I found this list from the Ontario government on specific items and how their tax treatment will change (or not) to be interesting. They’ve also put out information on how it will impact people, and impact businesses.

We've all been ill-served by all our politicians in this affair. Partly, it's our own fault. I think most people that sit down and consider it objectively will support harmonization. But, knowing most of us can't be bothered or just don't have the time, we're pandered to with sound bites and simplistic arguments that don't do this debate justice. Unless we demand better, we can only blame ourselves for the result.

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Jack Layton and Darrel Dexter extended caption contest

NDP leader Jack Layton shares a laugh today with Nova Scotia's NDP Premier, Darrell Dexter today at the Nova Scotia NDP's annual convention. Now here's a photo that needs a caption. My extended contribution is below, feel free to leave yours in the comments...

Darrell: Jack, I know that you've been in a righteous lather over the HST in BC and Ontario. You're not going to give me a hard time for jacking-up the HST by two points, are you?

Jack: Of course not, Darrell, you're my boy! You're my boy! We'll just ignore the fact that Nova Scotia now has both an NDP government AND the highest HST in Canada, and hope no one notices our hypocrisy.

Darrell: Awesome, you da man, Jack! Say, by the way, are you going to let your caucus vote to kill the gun registry or what?

Jack: Gotta go my man. Solidarity!

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Will B.C. have a referendum on the HST?

They will if Bill Vander Zalm (yes, that Vander Zalm) gets his way. From Elections BC:

British Columbia’s Chief Electoral Officer, Harry Neufeld, has granted approval in principle on an initiative petition application. The petition will be issued to proponent William Vander Zalm on Tuesday, April 6, 2010. The title of the initiative is: An initiative to end the harmonized sales tax (HST).

“This is the seventh initiative petition application to be approved since the legislation came into force in 1995″, notes Neufeld.

Any registered voter can apply to have a petition issued to gather support for a legislative proposal. After the petition is issued, the proponent will have 90 days to canvass and collect signatures of at least 10% of the registered voters in each of the 85 electoral districts.

Individuals or organizations who intend to oppose the initiative, conduct initiative advertising, or canvass for signatures must be registered with Elections BC. The deadline to apply for registration as an initiative opponent is March 8, 2010.

Registered voters as of April 6, 2010 may sign the petition for the electoral district in which they are registered. Voters may only sign the petition once.

The release notes this is the seventh petition application to be attempted under the legislation since 1995. I don’t recall any of the others, so I’d guess they didn’t take off. Certainly they didn’t succeed. I know the similarly structured MLA recall ability has also regularly failed to come close to success. And that only requires voters in one district.

An HST referendum requires 10 per cent of voters in every riding to sign on, and they have to do it in 90 days. That’s a tough hill to climb. For sure, there is anger in the province over the HST and particularly, I think, around the fact it came just after an election in which Gordon Campbell made no mention of it. But does the Vander Zalm camp have the organizational moxie to pull this off? Perhaps, but I’m skeptical. It has a chance, though. It will be interesting to see if Carole James and the BC NDP sign on.

Here are the specifics of the Vander Zalm initiative:

The purpose of the initiative draft Bill is to declare that the agreement between the federal government and the British Columbia government to establish a harmonized sales tax (HST) is not in effect. The draft Bill would reinstate the 7% provincial sales tax (PST) with the same exemptions as were in effect as of June 30, 2010 and establish the provincial sales tax as the only sales tax in British Columbia for the purposes of raising provincial revenue. The draft Bill proposes that it be effective retroactively to June 30, 2010. The Bill also proposes that the provincial share of HST revenues received between June 30, 2010 and the date of Royal Assent of the Bill that exceeds what would be collected under the PST rules as of June 30, 2010 would be reimbursed to British Columbians on a per capita basis.

What happens if they get the necessary signatures? A quick perusal of the Elections BC guidelines outlines the process:

The Select Standing Committee on Legislative Initiatives must meet within 30 days of receipt of the initiative petition and draft Bill. The Select Standing Committee has 90 days to consider the legislative proposal. The Committee must either table a report recommending introduction of the draft Bill or refer the initiative petition and draft Bill to the Chief Electoral Officer for an initiative vote.

If an initiative vote is required, a vote will be held on September 24, 2011, and on the last Saturday of September in every third year after that date. If more than 50% of the total number of registered voters in the province vote in favour of an initiative, and more than 50% of the total number of registered voters in each of at least 2/3 of the electoral districts in the province vote in favour of an initiative, the Chief Electoral Officer must declare the initiative vote to be successful and the government must introduce the Bill at the earliest practicable opportunity.

After a Bill is introduced into the legislature, the requirements of the Recall and Initiative Act have been satisfied, and any subsequent reading, amendment, or passage of the Bill will proceed as with any other Bill, with no guarantee of passage.

So, by my read, the committee (on which I’d imagine the governing Campbell Liberals would have a majority) could either decide to introduce (and presumably support) the bill, ending the process with its passage (unlikely they’d flip-flop on the HST) or let it go to a referendum in a year-and-a-half. If it did get that far, the latter scenario would seem more likely. Even if the referendum succeeds, in theory in seems the government could still use its majority to kill the legislation, but with a clear verdict in a referendum that scenario seems highly unlikely.

It would be an interesting campaign and, as much as the anti-HST folks would like to think they’re on the side of the angels as anti-tax crusaders, the reality is far different and a referendum could allow some of those nuances to be examined. Still, the pro-HST campaign would be a challenging one to wage.

My question for Vander Zalm though, and it’s not a small one: would he give all that harmonization money ($1.6 billion) the Harper Conservatives gave the province back to the feds? That would leave a huge hole in the province’s budget. What cuts would he make to compensate for it? The fact is, as much as some opponents may wish, I don’t think the HST genie can be stuffed back into the bottle. I suspect the smarter among the opponents know this – they’re just playing the politics.

And while such practical considerations will likely pale next to the populism of this thing, I really fail to see how the HST genie can be gotten back into the bottle. Despite the obvious difficulties in selling it, and the expected difficulties in implementation, not to mention the poor timing of doing this during a downturn, the fact remains that the idea of harmonizing federal and provincial sales taxes is good policy. Tough politics, yes, but good policy. We can take issue with the nuts and bolts, and demand tinkering to reduce negative effects, but the overarching policy is sound. It will save businesses money and create jobs for citizens. It did in Atlantic Canada, and it will in Ontario and B.C.

While I’ll take issue with Campbell conveniently finding religion on this mere days after an election, and with the Conservatives running away from it despite actively encouraging it and writing huge cheques to grease the wheels, it is still the right policy and I think more people should give credit to politicians like Campbell and Dalton McGuinty that pursue the right policy, even if the politics are horrible. Certainly it makes me think less of those that know the policy is right, but oppose it solely for partisan advantage.

I’m doubtful this will ever come to a referendum vote. But I hope this doesn’t mark a move towards the ballot initiative craziness we see in the U.S. political system, a trend that has led in large part to California’s fiscal crisis. It may be easy to rally populist anger against a government decision. But governing isn’t black and white. Governing is a series of interlocking decisions and tough choices. Every decision has rippling consequences. Pull one string and the whole tapestry unravels pretty quickly. Kill the HST, what happens then? What other taxes change to compensate? What does it mean for businesses? What about the federal compensation money? What budget cuts need to be made to give that back?

It’s not as easy as voting on one item in isolation. That’s why I’m not supportive of this sort of initiative campaign. We elect our political leaders to govern on our behalf, using their best judgment to consider all the factors and make the best decisions they can. We trust in their judgment.

And if they don’t live up to that trust, if we disagree with their calls on these tough choices, the place to make our displeasure known is by voting them out on election day.

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Thomas Mulcair: Looking out for number one

Future NDP leadership candidate (assuming Martin Cauchon doesn't defeat him in the next election) Thomas Mulcair asked the following question of the government he's propping-up in question period on Monday, regarding the HST:

Thomas Mulcair (NDP): (Voice of Translator): Mr. Speaker, while the Conservatives are busying themselves harmonizing sax tax increases in Ontario and British Columbia, Quebec is still waiting. Still waiting for the compensation it's owed after having harmonizeed its tax in THE '90s. 6 billion here. Instead of his usual boasting, can the minister of national revenue for once in his life answer the following question: When will Quebec finally be compensated?

Here Mulcair, as the NDP often does, is jumping on a BQ talking-point to try to curry favour in Quebec. If Ontario and BC are getting money to harmonize sales taxes now, why not Quebec, he asks, which harmonized some years ago.

Even if you accepted retroactive compensation as valid and not a cash-grab, why is Mulcair, whose party staunchly opposes the HST, not arguing for retroactive compensation for the other provinces that have previously harmonized?

Why isn't Mulcair demanding compensation for New Brunswick or Newfoundland? And why isn't he demanding compensation for Nova Scotia, home of NDP Premier Darrel Dexter?

No, it seems Mulcair is only concerned about Quebec, and not the Atlantic HST provinces. And I'm sure it has nothing to do with his Quebec seat being in trouble, and his not so secret dreams of replacing Jack Layton being on the rocks...

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Taylor lies and the Conservatives hide from the HST

The latest Conservative to try to hide from his government’s role as Harmonized Sales Taxes enabler is Blogging Tory poobah Stephen Taylor, who outrageously goes after Liberal MP Ujjal Dosanjh for making the point that the Conservatives, try as they might, can’t run and hide from their role in the HST or, if you prefer, the Harper Sales Tax.

Here’s the 10 per-center about the HST that has Taylor all riled-up:

Ujjal Flyer 2009


It’s all lies, says Taylor. Scandalous lies, oh, the humanity, and what not!

Dosanjh is fabricating by telling his constituents by blaming the unpopular tax on his main threat: the federal Conservatives.

Where are the lies, Stephen? It all looks pretty factual to me. (BTW, I love the irony of a Conservative complaining about lies in a 10 per center)

Let me put it this way: if the HST were a drug, BC would be the user, and the federal Conservatives the drug dealer.

The Conservatives can’t run and hide from their role in the HST, no matter how hard Taylor and much of the Conservative caucus might try. Not when their finance minister has been pushing the product for years…

"First of all, the decision to harmonize the GST and PST has to be that of the provincial government," (Jim Flaherty) said.

"I realize that this is challenging for provincial leaders, but I have no doubt in my mind that it's good long-term economic policy for our country.

...including in the budget...

Provincial sales tax harmonization is the single most important step provinces with RSTs could take to improve the competitiveness of Canadian businesses.

… and been offering any takers BILLIONS of dollars in incentives if they buy in.

How can the federal government say to provinces “we want you to harmonize your provincial sales tax with our GST, we’ll collect and administer the tax and send you your cut, and here’s a billion dollars and change to help with the transition” and then have its members and supporters claim they had nothing to do with it? It’s laughable.

If this is nothing to do with the federal Conservatives, why are they cutting the $1.6 billion cheque to grease the wheels?

Now, no one is saying the provincial governments aren’t responsible as well. While the lure of billions of federal dollars in the middle of a recession is strong, they are responsible too. But the Conservatives are the pushers here, and you can’t pretend otherwise. And to try to hide that is the real lie, Mr. Taylor.

To try to end on a more constructive note, Liberal MP Keith Martin wrote a recent op/ed with some thoughts on the HST matter. He notes that Harper and Flaherty pushing tax harmonization during a recession is irresponsible, and offers suggestions on how the province and the federal government can work together to implement it more responsibly.

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