Nanos: The Tums of polling

For Liberals SES, or Nanos Research as it's now known, spells relief.

After a scare earlier in the week with a nasty poll The Strategic Counsel showed a big Conservative lead, new numbers from Nanos, everyone's favourite pollsters, confirm the earlier Decima nunbers and cast doubt on The Strategic Counsel poll. It's still a statistical dead heat.

Canada (N=878, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 34% (+1)
Conservative Party 34% (+3)
NDP 14% (-5)
BQ 10% (NC)
Green Party 8% (NC)



And the analysis from Nanos:

Our latest tracking shows the Conservatives and the Liberals continue to be gripped in a deadlock. Support for the NDP has dropped 5 points nationally in the past 16 days while the Conservatives are up 3 points (within the Margin of Accuracy).

In order to understand what was driving the vote every committed voter was asked why they had a particular vote preference.

Conservatives were more likely to be driven by policies and job performance, the Liberals by a belief they were the best option and party policies/platform and the NDP by policies/platform and a belief they care for the average/working person.

Support for the Bloc was based on their standing up for Quebec/French and the belief they are the best choice. Green Party support was driven by their environmental credentials and policies/platform.

The drop for the NDP is interesting. I'd thought they might have benefited from the Liberals/Conservative detente on Afghanistan leaving them as the sole remaining strident anti-war voice. Perhaps the comprimise is going over better then I'd thought and the NDP is looking marganalized a bit, but that's all speculation on my part.

Interesting but no surpise are the answers to what's driving the voter preference numbers. The Cons think they're doing an awesome job, Liberls believe only they can do it, the NDP think they're all about the working person. Sounds about right.

On to the regional numbers:


Again reaffirming what we've seen in most earlier polls. A strenghtened Liberal lead in the Atlantic provinces and Ontario. In Quebec the BQ remains well ahead, with the Liberals and Cons in a dead-heat. And the Cons well ahead in the West, but those numbers are tough to read with Alberta included.The NDP at 15 there is shocking, as is their decline in all regions with the expception of Quebec, where they actually gained a point.

Also interesting to note is the decline in undecideds, from 16 to 12 per cent. It seems people are firming up there choices with the possibility of a forthcoming election and, while there's no clear favourite, their choice is solidifying around the Liberals and the Conservatives.

We'll see what the powers that be and the LPC caucus do with these numbers as we go into budget week. While these numbers do cast doubt on the earlier poll that showed a big Conservative lead, I'll still reiterate what I said then: if we don't smarten up that poll will be a taste of our future.

So, while everyone in Liberal land will breath a huge sigh of relief with these Nanos numbers, our job remains the same. Perhaps these numbers will stiffen some resolves. One can hope.

UPDATE: Steve and Scott weigh-in on the poll, as do Warren and Sun's Greg Weston with some interesting points.

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On interesting statistics

We really shouldn’t worry too much about bad polls or take too much glee in positive ones. We should note them though, particularly when Nik Nanos (formerly SES) is involved. And so I note these new numbers from Nik:

Liberals: 33 percent (-1)
Conservatives: 31 per cent (-4)
NDP: 19 per cent (+2)
BQ: 10 per cent (+1)
Greens: 8 per cent (+2)


Nice to see the Libs pull ahead, although within the margin of error so it’s pretty much a tie. It’s in line with what we’ve seen from recent pollsters too. And BTW, kudos to the NDP, who haven’t been this high since the fall of 2006.

What I find interesting though is to contrast party numbers like these with party leadership numbers like these, released last week by Nanos:


When you consider the Libs are up two/tied with the Cons despite Harper’s massive advantage on leadership, it kind of makes you wonder where the poll numbers would go if Stephane Dion ever gets it in gear. From recent reports, including a successful Tout le Monde appearance, he may be on his way…

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Liberal growth potential in the 905?

As a frustrated Greg Weston earlier griped, if it were up to Ontario the Liberals would be in government and Stephane Dion would be Prime Minister. Indeed, most polls have showed strong Liberal strength in Ontario, both for Dion and for the party.

Indeed, the latest SES numbers show the Liberals up by nearly 10 points in Ontario:

Liberals: 35.7 per cent
Conservatives: 26.6 per cent
NDP: 15.6 per cent
Greens: 5.3 per cent
Unsure: 16.9 per cent (more than support the NDP, interesting)

And when only decided voters are included:

Liberal: 42.9 per cent
Conservatives: 31.9 per cent
NDP: 18.8 per cent
Greens: 6.4 per cent

What is also interesting, and could lead to positive seat growth for the Liberals, is some of the demographic shifts taking place in the 905 belt, that suburban area outside of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). This suburban area is where Mike Harris won his majorities. They tend to be more Conservative-minded, and this is where Harper has been making inroads, with plans for more in the next election.

An interesting article in the Globe last month however, written after the provincial election, identified an interesting trend that could have important federal implications as well. The 905 ridings are becoming increasingly urban and, therefore, more likely to vote Liberal:

Ryerson University political scientist Neil Tomlinson said the movement of people from Toronto to rapidly growing suburbs such as Milton or Barrie was reflected in the shift away from the Tories on Wednesday. Their share of the provincial vote fell in 21 of 23 ridings, only eight of which went Conservative.

Prof. Tomlinson said the change in 905 voting comes from a fundamental shift in values.

"The whole character in these areas is now so different than a traditional suburban area. They are really urban. ... And as the character of an area changes, the issues that resonate with them change," he said.

And those issues are particularly interesting, as they are issues that the Harper government has all but ignored, not boding well for his chances in the 905. The whole drop dead incident comes to mind. The issues?

…the new suburbanites are more concerned with issues such as urban sprawl and the environment than the 905 denizens of the past, who found their rural and small-town values better represented by the Tories.

Now, in the interests of fairness, the professor does say he doesn’t think Harper needs to worry, as provincial issues and dynamics drove the seat results in October. True enough. But if he’s correct in identifying the demographic shifts then I’d say Harper does need to worry.

If the Liberals can make city issues front and centre, issues Harper has continued to ignore, then there would seem to be great room for growth in the 905. And, if nothing else, fighting a holding action would make Harper’s majority much more difficult to achieve.

Now, the other major driving factor in the 905 belt is ethnic issues, an area Harper and Jason Kenney have been putting a lot of effort into. But that’s a whole other story, and one others are better suited to address then I.

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Women and Ontarioins are twits, says Sun columnist?

While blaming everyone else for your shortcomings and refusing to look inward is certainly not a problem unique to conservatives by any means, they do it so well, and with such disdain and hatred, that they really do deserve special recognition.

The phenomenon is typified by a recent Sun Media column by Greg Weston. It’s on the recent SES poll results, and our dear Greg is just plum confused.

As you may recall, on the best PM side it was very bad news for the Liberals. Harper is well out in front at 37 per cent, Layton 17 per cent, Dion 13 per cent. I may explore that embarrassing result at length later, when I have ready access to hard liquor. But also telling were the horserace numbers which show a virtual tie, at Cons 35 per cent, Libs 34 per cent, NDP 17 per cent.

An interesting dichotomy there, obviously, between those two sets of numbers. You can see why Gregory may be confused. What does Greg do when he’s confused? He lashes out wildly and incoherently. Take the headline of his column: True Grits or twits? Ontario loyal to federal Liberals, despite qualms about Dion.

From there Weston expands on his thesis, at best stretching the numbers to explain how everybody dislikes Dion. Really Greg, these numbers are bad enough without you fiddling with them. Then he goes on to dismiss the horserace numbers saying “as always” they’re not the real story (because they’re not positive for the Conservatives, that is). Anything that doesn’t fit the narrative gets ignore. These guys also ignored the Mulroney story until the very last minute.

Anyway, Weston does ask the right question, or at least raise the right issue. After dissecting the leadership numbers, he writes:

Yet, if an election were held today, the same poll of the same voters shows the Liberals led by Dion would be in a virtual dead heat with Harper's Tories.

Indeed, and that has to be maddening for the Conservatives. You’d think a seasoned political columnist and pundit might draw from their breadth of experience to examine that seeming disconnect. Why aren’t Harper’s popularity numbers translating into ballot support? Why, despite misgivings about Dion, are Liberals not shifting their support to the Cons, NDP or Greens? What do the Conservatives need to do to break though here?

That would be interesting political commentary, and, from a Conservative point of view, useful introspection.

Instead, Weston decides to lash-out. First target? Women, who are more likely to vote Liberal:

If it were up to Canadian women, the Liberals would form a minority government and Dion would be the next prime minister.

Go figure.

Yeah Greg, women, tell me about it. But did you ever consider, perhaps the problem isn’t with women, but that the Conservatives haven’t been speaking to issues of importance to women? Nah, that can’t be it. It’s the women’s fault.

The real hatred though, as it so often was with the old Reform crowd, is reserved for the women (and men) of Ontario:

But it is in Ontario that we find what we unscientifically call the fence-post syndrome -- as in the Liberals could be led by one and still get elected.

It doesn't seem to matter that only 18 out of the 1004 voters surveyed by SES thought Dion was a "good leader."

The SES-Sun Media survey shows that in a race to the ballot box, the Liberals would command 43% of the vote, a full 11 points ahead of Harper and the Conservatives.

Since Ontario has more than a third of all the seats in Parliament, the current level of Liberal support in the province would make it virtually impossible for Harper to come anywhere close to winning a majority.

Probably explains this decision, no? But anyway, back to Greg:

No wonder Western voters look east and throw up their hands in despair.

Yeah, you suck Ontario! Oh, wait, I live here now too. Actually, doesn’t Weston too? Maybe he’s a self-hating Ontarioin.

Now, if I was to make any kind of comment questioning why Albertans persist in electing anyone with a pulse as long as they’re conservative I’d be accused of some kind of racial bias. I mean, imagine, for a second, that, let’s say, the Toronto Star ran a headline implying Albertans are twits, Mein gott, the wacko outrage would make that silly Harper tells cities drop dead nonsense look like a tea party. But Ontario bashing, it seems, is perfectly acceptable.

And it’s wholly counterproductive to their cause. It’s like a toddler that didn’t get what it wants banging its fists and having a tantrum.

Again, Weston has identified the problem. Ontarians don’t like the Conservatives. Rather than having a tantrum though and blaming Ontario, wouldn’t it make more sense to consider why? It’s not because we’re evil. Could it, perhaps, be that we have serious issues with the Conservatives? Could it, perhaps, be Harper’s failure to address these issues that explains his poor showing here?

To be frank though, I’m perfectly happy for the Cons to keep blaming everyone but themselves for their inability to break into majority territory, to not have the support of women, and to be losing ground in Ontario. Because if they stopped lashing-out, they might actually solve the problem.

So carry on my conservative friends, forget I mentioned it...

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One last poll

The day before the Ontario vote and a poll from everyone's favourite pollster, SES, hits my mailbox with a subject line that has to warm Liberal hearts: Liberal Victory Imminent.

The poll, completed over the weekend, makes it clear the Liberals will win Wednesday's vote, with the only question to be answered being the size of the victory.

The numbers:

Ontario Provincial Ballot (N=441, MoE +/- 4.7%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal 42.6% (among Women 43.4%)
PC 30.5% (amongWomen 25.0%)
NDP 17.5% (among Women 22.0%)
Green 9.4% (among Women 9.5%)
* 11.9% of voters were undecided

The Green Party numbers will be interesting to watch tomorrow night. SES notes Green Party numbers are often inflated in polls by 1/3 because people like to say they'll vote Green but often change their mind at the ballot box. If that trend continues, SES predicts these adjusted numbers based on the second choice of Green supporters:

Ontario Provincial Ballot - Green Adjustment (N=441, MoE +/- 4.7% , 19 times out of 20)
Liberal 43.8%
PC 31.0%
NDP 19.0%
Green 6.1%
* 11.9% of voters were undecided

Interesting that the reallocated Green vote is spread fairly evenly across the three major parties, although the NDP does gain slightly more than the others. Which would imply the NDP would be in more trouble if Green support ever grew and solidified.

And analysis from SES:

In the past week, Tory's announcement of a free vote on the faith-based school issue has not positively moved his numbers. The New Democrats are marginally up. The real story of this election has been the inability of the PCs to effectively compete for the support of women. The Grits enjoy an 18.4 point lead over the Tories among women.

If you look at most federal polling you'll see the Harper Conservatives also have been unable to build their support with women, and they don't seem to be doing much of anything to change that either. Could this be a factor in the next federal vote, or will Harper learn from Tory's experience? Time will tell.

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SES: MMP won't pass

While it will be disappointing to MMP supporters, I don’t think it will be particularly surprising to anyone. Except maybe the many people that have no idea what MMP is or that there is a referendum. But according to pollsters SES, the Ontario MMP referendum isn’t going to pass:

The most recent SES/Sun Media poll indicates that the support to change Ontario's electoral system to MMP is unlikely to pass the 60% threshold needed for change.

Asked about their intentions related to the upcoming referendum, Ontarians generally preferred to keep the current system (47%), followed by voting for MMP (26%) and finally not casting a vote in the referendum (5%). Twenty-one percent were unsure.

So, even if all 21 per cent of the undecided broke in favour of MMP, and that’s highly unlikely, they’d still tie the no to MMP vote and fall under the 50 per cent level, which, while not enough for ratification, would still be a major psychological and moral victory in favour of electoral reform.

We can analyze to death the poor showing for MMP, and I have no doubt we will. I have my theories, I’ll save that for others to debate though.

What I want to say though is that these results should not be taken as a vote against electoral reform, it should only be taken as a vote against the MMP system. I think most Ontarians favour electoral reform, and would vote for the right system if given the opportunity.

So, hopefully this isn’t the end for electoral reform, but only the beginning.

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SES puts Ontario Liberals in majority territory

New numbers out this morning from SES echo the weekend's Ipsos numbers, also saying the McGuinty Liberals have widened their lead over the Tory Conservatives to 10 points.

The phone survey, conducted Sept. 28-30th, puts the race as follows:

Liberals: 44 per cent (+3)
Conservatives: 34 per cent (+1)
NDP: 15 per cent (-3)
Greens: 7 per cent (-1)
*10 per cent undecided

It looks like the Liberal gain came from the NDP rather than the Conservatives, indicating perhaps a stop Tory/anti-Conservative vote shifting to the Liberals. I thought this note from SES was interesting:

Interestingly, in the last seven days support among women who support the NDP has dropped and resulted in a corresponding increase in female support among Liberals.

Interesting indeed. And troubling no doubt for Hampton and the NDP. This may cause them to increase their attacks on McGuinty and the Liberals in the last week of the campaign, not that they've been shy on that front to date.

Speaking of Hampton, he hasn't been losing support personally and neither has McGuinty, who has a three point (but within the margin) lead on Tory for best Premier:

Dalton McGuinty 32% (+3)
John Tory 29% (-2)
Howard Hampton 18% (+3)
Frank de Jong 3% (-1)
None of them 6% (-1)
Unsure 12% (-2)

I'm not sure if we'll have another public poll before e-day to see how Tory's major flip-flop yesterday on faith-based schooling plays. I'm sure the parties will have their own internal polling shortly, it would be interesting to see the results. The next poll for us though may be the only one that counts, on Oct. 10. It'll be like a giant free vote.

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Dion is becoming more of a leader, and other poll spinning

I was thinking just the other day that it has been a long time since we've had a poll released. Thankfully, on the eve (or, I guess more accurately, on the morn) of a cabinet shuffle the good folks at SES have obliged (opens a PDF).

First, the trend chart:


And the regional numbers:


And analysis from SES boss Nik Nanos:

Today's federal cabinet shuffle is another attempt by the Harper Tories to break away from what has been a neck-and-neck race with the Liberals over the past year.

The federal Tories and Grits are still close but the NDP numbers have slid in the past 90 days to 13% nationally - the lowest level of support for the NDP recorded by SES in almost three years. NDP support has slid in both Quebec (13% to 7%) and Ontario (19% to 12%). The Tories are ahead of the Grits by 17 points in the West, but trail the Grits by 7 points in Ontario and by 14 points in Atlantic Canada.

Some very interesting movement on the best PM front. The Harper 18 point best PM advantage over Dion has melted away to an 8 point advantage in 90 days. The noticeable gains for Dion have been in Ontario.

Even with Harper's diluted leadership advantage, Tory support moved up albeit just outside of the accuracy for the survey.

My thoughts

Once again nationally the Cons and Liberals are neck and neck. The Cons are up by three but that’s within the margin of error.

When looking at national numbers, it’s important in a FPTP system to look at where the support is coming from. While the Cons made small gains across the country with the exception of Atlantic Canada, their biggest gain (6 per cent) was in Western Canada, where they enjoy 47 per cent support.

This would tend to boost their national support a tad, but is deceptive because the Cons already hold many Western seats, and increasing their vote counts in held ridings doesn’t equal more seats. Their bump in Quebec, where they’re now just one point behind the Liberal for second, is more relevant though.

In much the same way, while the Liberals are at 44 per cent in Atlantic Canada there aren’t a lot of seats to be gained for them there. In Ontario though, a six point bump for the Liberals for a 43 to 36 lead over the Conservatives is quite interesting, as long as its not all confined to the GTA.

Nanos mentioned the NDP numbers and they’re not too good in this poll, nationally they’re only five up on the Greens. They’ve lost support in every region of the country and, most tellingly, dropped from 13 per cent to 7 per cent in Quebec. With all of their hoopla about a Quebec breakthrough that has to be sobering. They also dropped seven in Ontario, where it looks like a polarization between the Libs and Cons may be occurring. With NDP support at its lowest levels in three years Layton has his work cut out for him.

Take me to your leader

SES also included the ever popular/controversial best PM question:


Harper still leads but Dion has at least passed Layton for second place, and closed the gap with Harper to eight points. So, positive baby steps from a Liberal perspective.

Much of the Dion gain can be traced to a major upsurge in popularity in Ontario, where Dion gained 18 points to now lead Harper 33 to 24. Across the rest of the country Layton still outpolls Dion, although Dion did close the gap and post steady gains in each region.

Harper interestingly gained four points in Atlantic Canada, perhaps a post caucus meeting afterglow, and went up in the West, but dropped slightly in Quebec and, of concern I’d think, dropped nine in Quebec.

So, what to make of it all? Both Libs and Cons can find things to like here, but as a Liberal I’m pleased with the trends. I’d say the message for us is keep working hard.

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OK, now how do we grow?

I’d be a bad blogger indeed if I didn’t comment on the new polling numbers from SES that, like a number of polls of late, show the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical dead-heat. The rogue poll argument no longer holds water, the trends show things are tight.

I’m very happy to see the Conservatives finally coming back down to Earth thanks to a combination of factors, namely it would seem Afghanistan, the environment, and their own arrogance and incompetence. Governments, as the saying goes, defeat themselves, and while it’s extremely premature to go there it has certainly been a bad stretch for Harper et al.

There is definitely a lot in the recent polls for Liberals to be happy about. I’d like to try to take a slightly different tack than others have though and ask another question: With the Conservatives shooting themselves in the feet, how do the Liberals grow their support?

Because if you look at the trend lines from SES and other pollsters you’ll see that Liberal support has remained relatively steady at around 30 per cent since the last election. We haven’t gained support to catch the Conservatives; they’ve lost support to come down to our level.

Now, holding onto our support through a rather tumultuous period that included an extended leadership race, a Conservative honeymoon and a rocky start for Dion is not that shabby, as I’ve argued in the past.

Not to be negative though, but with the Conservatives now struggling we need to convert some of that Conservative weakness into Liberal strength. We need to start growing our support.

Just like everyone used to know there would be a spring election, now everybody knows there won’t be one. That means the Liberals will at least have the summer, and we need to use it. No summer breaks, every member of the Liberal “dream team” needs to hit the road and visit every bbq, corn roast and clam bake from Prince Rupert to Bonavista.

Have Dion, Ignatieff, Rae, Kennedy, Hall-Findlay, Trudeau, Dhalla and the rest fan out across the country. Get them in front of small groups and into small towns. Forget the national media, get in front of community newspaper reporters and broadcasters.

And have everyone singing from the same playbook. We need to start putting a little meat on the policy bones. Marketing experts say the average person will take away just three things away from a message. We already have our three things in the three pillars: the economy, social justice and the environment. Unfortunately if these pillars were a stool you’d slide off.; the environmental leg has gotten a bit oversized. A little balance is needed.

Let’s flesh out the social justice and economic management messages. We’ve got ready-made, attractive policies for both, from using the next planned GST decrease to fight child poverty to our plan for income trust fairness that will resonate strongly with seniors. Let’s take those messages along with our environmental message to the people.

By seeming to flop from one problem to the next the Conservatives are doing their bit. Now, it’s up to the Liberals to do ours.

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BQ goes poof!

SES asks Quebecers how they'd vote if the BQ didn't exist. Other fascinating polls Nik now has in the field:

How would you vote if there was no Liberal Party? (Sponsored by Jack L.)

How would you vote if Jack Layton wasn't so pretentiously hypocritical? (Sponsored by everyone)

How would you vote if Senator Palpatine replaced Stephen Harper as Conservative Party Leader? (sponsored by Tom F.)

I look forward to the critically important results.

In the meantime its off to Skydome tonight to see the Jays play the Red Sox (booooo!) and Japanese pitching sensation Daisuke Matsuzaka. Should be a good one, it's always fun when the Red Sox or the Yankees come to town. Hopefully the Jays can play through these injuries though, Glaus and Ryan are key guys.

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Stephen Harper's Conservative team

More numbers from SES Research today, and these ones are decidedly less positive for the Liberals than these. It's the infamous “Best PM” numbers, and once again Steve Harper is a run-away leader while Stephane Dion lags well back.

Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister:
Stephen Harper: 42 per cent
Stephane Dion: 17 per cent
Jack Layton: 16 per cent
Gilles Duceppe: 7 per cent
Elizabeth May: 4 per cent
None: 7 per cent
Unsure: 6 per cent

Not a good situation for the Dion Liberals. As I've said before this isn't insurmountable (particularly given the party support numbers) but, and it's a big but, we need to start turning this around soon before it does become insurmountable. I mentioned the other day how the Liberals have been unable to build their support in the party support numbers; it would appear Dion's (lack of) popularity is holding those numbers back.

I'd wager those "Not a Leader" attack ads from the CPC have found their mark. While they haven't budged Liberal support, they have weakened Dion as a leader and sapped his ability to grow the party's support. What's the answer? Hey, I think he's the bees knees so it's hard for me to say. One thing I often hear is when people see him in person, they like him, so keep getting him out there. And hope there's no election this spring.

While Dion lags his party in popularity, it's also interesting to note Harper is more popular than his party by six points. It wasn't that long ago Conservatives saw Harper as a liability, now he looks to be their greatest asset. A cautionary note, I think, on how quickly these things can change. Will be interesting to see how this might effect CPC strategy: even more all Harper, all the time?

Looking at the regional numbers (pdf), hard to find any bright spots for the Libs:

And here's commentary from SES boss Nik Nankos:

What is emerging is a situation where one leader is ahead of his party (Harper) and another leader trails his party (Dion). Of note, Harper is the second choice as the best PM among committed Liberals, New Democrats and BQ voters and the first choice as Best PM in the province of Quebec.

As shown in the previous research conducted with CPAC, Harper does well on leadership factors. From a polling perspective, Liberal ballot box support is being maintained by entrenched party support. The Conservatives are more likely to be encumbered by residual concerns on social issues (code - abortion/same sex marriage etc.).

Even with these numbers, one should exercise caution. Perceptions of leaders can turn quickly. All it would take is for one attack ad on Dion to go too far to potentially turn the numbers and change the environment.

Interesting times. I still think things are volatile. You have to remember, In our first past the post system, with 40% support winners take all. With numbers like these we may see more of a “Harper Government” and less of the “New Conservative Government”

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Latest SES numbers: No one wins

The latest polling numbers from everyone's favourite pollster, SES Research, are out this Easter Weekend. The numbers show a continuing tight race with no majority in sight for Harper, but point to potential trouble for the Liberals in Quebec.

Says SES boss Nik Nanos:

The latest SES Research poll completed this Thursday evening (April 5th) shows the Conservatives are still short of forming a majority government. Nationally, the Conservatives registered the support of 36% of decided voters followed by the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 16%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 6%.

And here's the chart, going back to the historical Liberal highs of the giddy early Martin era. Since election day, again, very little change. Indeed, it's even tighter today that it was election day: (click for the PDF)


Anyway, as I said though, trouble brewing in Quebec. Says Nanos:

However, the federal budget, Quebec provincial election results and the new advertising scandal arrest has put downward pressure on Liberal support in Quebec. The Liberals have dropped nine points in Quebec in the past 60 days. Research conducted by SES has shown that in the past there is a direct relationship between federal Liberal support in Quebec and any new revelations regarding the sponsorship scandal. It is too early to tell whether the Liberal drop is short term or not.

I'll leave the Quebec analysis to others, but it certainly seems plausible to see the latest Lafleur news this week having an impact on Liberal fortunes in Quebec. I think the rest of the country has moved on, but it may well be different in Quebec. Short term or long term though? That will be interesting. This is the one spot of hope for Harper, or for anyone, in this poll though.

Also interesting however is the rest of the regional numbers:

The margin of error is why it's important to take all these regional numbers, even the Quebec ones, with a grain of salt.

Libs maintain a strong lead in the Atlantic, but dip a bit. Interesting to see the Cons just three points up in the NDP in the Atlantic. Budget not going over well there? An interesting increase in undecideds there too.

Quebec we've discussed but the NDP up five there, is this Jack's promised breakthrough?

Battleground Ontario (TM) is super tight for the Libs and Cons, but interesting they're both taking support from the NDP. Or perhaps votes are bleeding right, NDP to Libs and Libs to Cons. A little nose holding by Dippers to stop Harper maybe, a la 2004? If so, Jack should be worried.

And lastly, the West. Off topic rant, but B.C. should be its own separate region for so many reasons I'm not in the mood to list. Anyway, Cons holding steady but the Libs gaining five, just five back. Again, Lib gains coming from the NDP and the Greens. See comments above. Still, without more of a breakdown it's tough to evaluate the significance. Factor out the large Con pluralities in Alberta though and things could get interesting. Remember , Liberal vote and seat count has increased in B.C. over the last two elections. There's hope for growth too in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. If the stars align. If.

Really though, what these numbers show is that everybody hasn't been doing a particularly good job, and no one should be in any mood for an election because at the moment, nothing would change.

The Conservatives have done everything they can to bribe, manipulate and cajole Canadians, and all the taxpayer billions have gotten them is the same numbers they had on e-day, they're treading water. The Liberals have failed to build or maintain any momentum, or capture the imagination of Canadians. NDP support has been less fluid, it has been a nearly straight line. They've got their base, but no one else is looking. Dido the BQ, and despite all the hype support for the Green Party is stagnant.

It's kind of amusing to think that all the bluster, rancor, sound and fury of the past 14 months has been for nothing. Nothing has changed. Looks like it's back to the drawing board for everyone.

To find the silver lining though (at least, I guess, if you're a Liberal, and I am, so sue me) this is still anyone's election. The Libs are only back three of the Cons, with a three point margin of error. That's a statistical dead heat. To read the media you'd think Harper was running away with it but in reality, it's anyone's game. If, that is, anyone can get their act together.

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SES on the budget, Quebec, Charest and Harper

As we await the details of the federal budget this afternoon (it's all the buzz down here in Salt Lake City, I assure you) I found this latest data from everyone's favourite pollsters interesting. SES says the budget isn't likely to help Jean Charest or Steve Harper all that much in Quebec, at least in the short term.

With much of the budget details well-leaked by the Conservatives ahead of time (barring no doubt a few surprises later today) SES polled Quebecers on how the leaked and expected budget iniatives would influence their opinions of Harper and Charest. Here's the numbers:

Question - As you know, Prime Minister Stephen Harper supports the concept of “open federalism”. The Harper government has announced $350 million to support Quebec’s environmental plan. Likewise, there is expected to be additional new equalization transfers from the government of Canada to the province of Quebec in the federal budget.

As a result are you likely to view Stephen Harper more favourably, about the same or less favourably?

All Quebecers (N=500)
More favourably - 27.0%
About the same - 33.5%
Less favourably - 36.6%
Unsure - 2.9%

As a result are you likely to view Jean Charest more favourably, about the same or less favourably?

All Quebecers (N=500)
More favourably - 20.9%
About the same - 38.0%
Less favourably - 37.8%
Unsure - 3.2%

Associate with Provincial Liberals (N=129)
More favourably - 48.0%
About the same - 29.8%
Less favourably - 18.9%
Unsure - 3.3%

And the analysis from SES president Nik Nanos:

The polling shows that Harper's open federalism, new money for Quebec's environmental plan and expected new equalization transfers for the province do not have a major positive impact on his image among Quebec voters. Indeed, Quebecers are more likely to look less favourably on the Prime Minister. The research does show that for Charest the budget will be good at firming up individuals who most closely personally associate with the Liberal Party of Quebec.

My sense is that for the federal Conservatives the budget strategy has a number of layers. First, the timing and likely budget configuration increases the likelihood for it to pass and thus further sustains the Harper government. Second, the federal Conservatives can wait and see what bump..if any...materializes from the budget.

For Charest, beyond Liberals, the traction of the budget and open federalism at this time is weak. This could be a result of the view that a number of Quebecers see the budget as a potential federal intervention in provincial politics.

Sounds like a fair analysis of the numbers to me. With the big cavet that something big and unexpected in the budget today could toss all this out the window, I'm not overly surprised Quebecers aren't buying into what Harper has been selling to them. Which has to be a sock in the gut, given the effort he has expended trying to build his, and Charest's, support in the province that could well make or break his majority dreams. Interesting the poll says the sales pitch is hurting him there though, I wonder what's behind that.

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Federally mandated poll post

I've been busy at work today but I have been informed by the CRTC that if I don't do a post on polling tout de suite I'll forfeit my secret blogger decoder ring.

Not wanting that to happen, and still being busy, please allow me to reprint this post from August 3, 2006, at a time there was much polling joy in Liberal land, called Polls are for dancing:

There seems to be much glee and rejoicing around the Liberal blogsphere these days over recent positive poll results, including a Decima poll today that shows the Liberals just one point behind the Conservatives.

Positive news, to be sure. But let's not get carried away here. In fact, let's try not to pay too much attention to the polls at all. Was it that long ago that we were very low in the polls, subject to lots of Conservative carping about their coming majority? Things change quickly, and they can change quickly again.

I consider polling to be mainly a junk science anyway, take a look at how well most polling companies did calling the last election. Public opinion is also a fickle thing, and can change on a dime. This week the results seem to be driven by a poor opinion of Harper's Middle East policy. Who knows what the issue will be next week.

My point is that we shouldn't pay attention to the polls because our ability to influence them, particularly in opposition, is limited. And no matter what our position in the polls, our job is still the same.

I think we’re on the right track with a good leadership race that is now heating up. I think we need to be a more forceful and effective opposition when Parliament resumes in the fall, and I hope that message goes out at the caucus meetings this month in Funcouver.

We need to just keep doing our job, and if we do it well the people will come around and the support will be there. Newspapers may like polls, but for us there's only one poll that counts. And I don’t mean SES.

Lesson being, things change, and can change quick, so don’t get hung-up on polls good or bad. We need to stop obsessing over every poll result, trying to debunk it or issue dire warnings. We know we have work to do. We know what needs to be done. So let's just do it.

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