Three to tango in Vancouver-Quadra?

Unfortunately, none of them is Neve Campbell. But Public Eye Online's Sean Holman reports there may soon be a third entrant for the Conservative nomination in Vancouver-Quadra, and the chance to take on Liberal Joyce Murray:

In an interview with Public Eye, Howard Jampolsky - who recently lost the Tory nomination race in Richmond to Alice Wong - confirmed he's thinking about putting his name on the ballot.

If he tosses his chapeau into the ring Howard would be facing some stiff competition in the form of former BC Cancer Foundation president and CEO Mary McNeil and UBC business lecturer Deborah Merideth. He’s also be entering into a heated atmosphere: Harper loyalist John Reynolds is touting McNeil as a ‘star candidate’ while old Tory Senators Gerry St. Germain and Pat Carney are backing Merideth. There were even rumours last week that McNeil’s supporters were pushing for a cabinet spot for their candidate.

And even if Jampolsky got past all that he’d still face an uphill battle against a former provincial environment minister in Murray in a riding Liberal Stephen Owen carried handily last time.

So, if I were Howard I’d think twice about getting in the middle of this dust-up. Particularly given that he just ran for, and lost, the Conservative nomination in Richmond.

I’ve never been a big fan of this kind of riding shopping. Between elections is one thing; Murray ran in a New Westminster-Coquitlam for the Liberals in 2006. Conservative star Peter Kent is moving to a riding seen as more winnable within the GTA for the next election.

But two ridings within the same election cycle? It just doesn’t sit well with me. I don’t like the message it sends to the constituents of either riding, which is that it’s much more about getting elected then it is about representing them.

It can be tough when a good candidate narrowly loses a tight nomination battle and there’s an open riding next door, but I feel the right thing to do is wait until next time. A very desirable Liberal candidate in the Toronto area lost a tough nomination battle a few months back, and there was talk of running her in another riding. As much as I’d like to see her on a ballot I was against it, I don’t think it’s right, and it’s wrong for Jamplosky too.

Anyway, even if he gets into the race it will probably be all academic, I’d bet on McNeil at this point. Of course, this is all assuming Harper ever bothers to call the by-election…

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Another unelected Harper minister?!

The intrepid Sean Holman at Public Eye reports an intriguing rumour that Mary McNeil, the Conservative (*nomination, see update) candidate in the as yet uncalled Vancouver-Quadra by-election, may be elevated into cabinet as an unelected minister in the upcoming Harper cabinet shuffle:

Meanwhile, we're hearing suggestions Vancouver-Quadra nomination candidate and former BC Cancer Foundation president Mary McNeil should be given a seat at the big table.

This is rather interesting actually. It would address Harper’s problem of weak female bench strength, discussed in the Globe this morning. And it would give McNeil a boost (should she become the candidate) in a tough by-election battle against former B.C. cabinet minister Joyce Murray in a riding won handily last election by outgoing Liberal MP Stephen Owen. Campaigning as a minister is a plus for sure.

And it’s not entirely without precedent to have someone in cabinet before being elected to the HoC: Stephane Dion provides a handy example. And Harper broke even that convention (that the minister runs immediately in a by-election to win a seat) with the Michael Fortier Senate/Cabinet appointment, so don’t put it past him.

Of course, there are downsides. For one, Harper would fly flat in the face of past statements like this:

…you need to be elected to the Parliament of Canada to become a minister.

Not that Harper has been adverse to flip-flopping and completely reversing once deeply held principles in the past, mind you.

But such an appointment would also smack of desperation. Dion came into cabinet after a near referendum loss to fight for Canadian unity; I’m not sure low Conservative polling numbers equate to a national crisis. It would also be a smack in the face to the women in Harper’s caucus passed over for cabinet spots.

And then there’s the risk if she loses the by-election (which he’ll delay calling as long as possible) and is forced to resign in embarrassment. Even as a minister McNeil faces an uphill battle against Murray.

Anyway, a fun rumour for a slow summer day. Other B.C.-flavoured cabinet speculation from Holman:

Well, some party members are wondering whether Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister Chuck Strahl will be shuffled out of his portfolio or lose his post as the province's political minister in favour of Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn. Not surprisingly, perennial rumours of a promotion for Port Moody-Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam parliamentarian James Moore are also blossoming. And some say Abbotsford parliamentarian Ed Fast could also be named to cabinet.

Since when did Lunn become a star, did I miss a memo? I've always felt it was rather the opposite. And the wheatboard shenanigans aside I’ve always liked Strahl, he’s just carrying the bag for Harper there anyway. Ed who? And I agree with Kady, let’s not get Moore’s hopes up. Every time I read this quote from James, back when Harper was about to announce his first cabinet, it breaks the heart a little. Poor kid:

A few words seared into my brain that I've been saying for about 2 weeks now: "Mr. Harper will announce his cabinet on Monday. I have nothing more to say." Where is Superman when you need him to spin the globe a little faster so Monday arrives sooner?

UPDATE: I'm reminded that McNeill hasn't even won the Conservative nomination for Quadra yet, but is running against business professor Deborah Meredith. One presumes Harper would give her an appointment or force/encourage Meredith to drop out before the cabinet appointment. Would be weird to put her into cabinet and still have a nomination race, wouldn't it?

But what adds another layer to this story is the dynamics of the nomination race, which is shaping-up as a battle of Harper insiders (i.e. John Reynolds) behind McNeill versus old Tories (Senators Pat Carney and Gerry St. Germain) behind Meredith.

Reynolds et. al. would certainly have the juice to pull off an appointment/cabinet slot for McNeil, but at what price to party unity?

While anything is possible, and I've learned to put nothing past Harper, one wonders if these McNeil cabinet rumours have a lot more to do with nomination race spin and positioning then anything else.

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Quadra is getting interesting...fall by-election?

Long-time Liberal MP Stephen Owen announced today he will be vacating his seat in Vancouver-Quadra at the end of the month to take an academic post at UBC.

Owen had already announced his intention not to run again so that’s not a surprise, but with Owen resigning with no general election in the offing it does set the scene for a very interesting by-election, and one that will be very important for both the Liberals and the Conservatives.

While the riding has been Liberal for some time (John Turner ran and won there as PM) and Owen carried the riding handily in 2006 (by some 12,000 votes over a high profile Conservative candidate, Stephen Rogers) it’s has been Conservative in the fairly recent past and it’s a riding that the Conservatives, and others, view as poachable. Often described as “tony”, while it includes UBC it also has Point Grey and it’s a wealthy and highly educated riding.

The Liberals already have a candidate selected in the riding in Joyce Murray, a former provincial environment candidate that ran unsuccessfully for the Liberals in New Westminster-Coquitlam in 2006.

According to the Sun the Conservatives don’t have a candidate yet. John Reynolds, the former Conservative MP, campaign co-chair and current lobbyist (who I guess is banned from the Conservative war room) is touting businesswoman and BC Cancer foundation chairman Mary McNeil as a star candidate, but unless she gets an appointment (or they pull a Cutler) she’ll face a challenge from UBC professor Deborah Meredith, who has a lot of old Conservative backing in Senators Pat Carney and a bbq-less Gerry St. Germain, plus the past candidate and even everyone's favourite reformer, Deborah Grey.

So before we even get to a by-election it looks like a rather interesting battle for the Conservative nomination, with some Conservative titans battling it out in the backrooms. We’ll have to watch and see how it plays -- or isn’t allowed to play -- out.

And when we do get to a by-election the results could be quite telling. Even though it is currently a Liberal riding, a by-election win in a riding the Conservatives are targeting would be a big boost, and getting Murray into parliament would be great. For the Conservatives, a win in an upper middle class riding like Quadra (and taking it from the Liberals) would help boost their desire to portray themselves as a new kind of CPC.

Let the campaigning begin. The only question is when will Deceiven’ Stephen pull the trigger? He has six months from July 27^th. There’s also Jean Lapierre’s riding in Quebec to be filled, the clock is ticking there too...

P.S. No matter who wins in Quadra the odds look good that the HoC will be gaining another female MP, and that's a good thing.

UPDATE: Dan raises a highly plausible conspiracy theory.

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