By-elections give Liberals more hope – and a lot more hard work

Hope and Hard Work has become the oft-repeated Liberal mantra under Justin Trudeau. And it can also be used to describe where the Liberals find themselves after Monday’s by-elections: with a little more hope, and a lot more hard work ahead of them.

The hope: with significant gains in vote and margin across the board in four ridings, including two where the Liberals weren’t on the map in 2011, it’s clear the Liberal momentum under Trudeau is for real. The hard work: to the extent they may have been holding their powder, the gloves are going to come off now in a big way as both the NDP and the Conservatives train their guns on the emerging Liberal threat.

While you’ll hear some say this by-election had a status–quo result, with each party holding onto what it came in with, make no mistake: the Liberals had a lot to lose Monday night, particularly in Bourassa and Toronto-Centre.

When any veteran incumbent departs, that party generally loses vote share. And Bob Rae in Toronto-Centre and Denis Coderre in Bourassa were no ordinary incumbents – they both had very high personal popularity. Bourassa borders several NDP ridings. And Toronto-Centre is sandwiched between Craig Scott in Toronto-Danforth and Olivia Chow in Trinity-Spadina. Traditional NDP ridings? No. But if the NDP is going to cement its official opposition status and challenge for government in 2015, these are the sorts of ridings they need to win.

The NDP ran very aggressively in both ridings, and had a high profile Toronto candidate in Linda McQuaig. Instead, the Liberals increased their vote in each riding and, in its first true test under Mulcair, the Orange Crush was more like Orange Crushed. For the Liberals, it was expectations exceeded.

Moving out west, we had two strong Conservative seats in rural Manitoba, where the Conservatives won handily in 2011. The NDP, who have long-dominated the provincial government, finished strong second in each, well ahead of the Liberals, who were actually 4^th in Brandon-Souris. These were ridings to watch how the Conservative base feels about Harper. And again, if the NDP is to move from opposition to government, these prairie seats are ones where they need to at least show momentum.

Instead, the momentum was clearly all Liberal. In Provencher, Conservative Ted Falk won handily with 58 per cent of the vote, down from Vic Toews’ 70 per cent but still dominant. The real story though was Liberal Hayward, who took nearly 30 per cent of the vote, up from just six per cent in 2011 and well ahead of the NDPer, who fell to eight per cent from 20 per cent in 2011.

And Liberal Rolf Dinsdale nearly pulled off the upset of the decade in Brandon Souris, a ridings where the Liberals barely cracked five per cent in 2011, finishing behind the Greens. He took the Liberals to 24 per cent of the vote, less than 400 votes behind Conservative Larry Maguire. It may be difficult to replicate this feat in 2015 – a botched Conservative nomination process stirred local anger – but the Liberal momentum is undeniable.

If results like this were to be replicated across the country, the next election will be very interesting indeed. What they show is that no riding should be taken for granted, and Liberals across the country need to double-down on their efforts in their communities, whatever the results in the past have been.

The road to 2015

The work for Liberals now only gets harder on the road to 2015. The Conservatives and Liberals can no longer consider the Trudeau Liberals a media-created mirage, and the polls (other than Forum’s, perhaps) will no longer be so easy to dismiss.

Expect the Conservatives to bombard the airwaves more than ever before with negative ad nastiness. It’s going to take a lot of hard work to whether the two-front bombardment and keep focused on building a positive movement into 2015.

Voters are also going to take a more serious and contemplative look at the Liberals now, and so are the analysts, media and punditry. To the extent there ever was a free ride, expect it to come to a swift end. Trudeau and the party are going to have to step up their game, put real ideas and priorities on the table, and prove themselves to be a true government in waiting. 

Ahead of the next big report card, the grading is about to get a lot harder.

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What would Jack Layton say about Linda McQuaig’s push for a two-person debate?

Four federal by-elections have been called for Nov. 25^th, including in Toronto Centre. While a new poll shows the Liberals comfortably ahead, I think it’s going to be a real battle. And so does NDP candidate Linda McQuaig, judging by the gambit she launched this weekend.

McQuaig is challenging Liberal candidate Chrystia Freeland to a one-on-one debate on income inequality, a topic they’ve both written about at some length. Such a debate would exclude every other party running in this election, such as the Green Party and, oh yeah, the folks with a majority government that are running the country, the Conservatives.

Big difference between @cafreeland & me on income inequality. Debate wd help #torcen residents decide. #ndp #lpc http://t.co/gGNEf9Xc8N
— Linda McQuaig (@LindaMcQuaig) October 20, 2013

Freeland isn’t taking the bait; she says she’s looking forward to many debates with all the candidates.

Looking fwd to taking part in all-candidates debates over the coming weeks. Important for #torcen voters to hear from all parties #cdnpoli
— Chrystia Freeland (@cafreeland) October 21, 2013

Of course, the idea of excluding major parties for more limited debates isn't new. In 2008, the NDP and Conservatives teamed-up to bar Green Party Elizabeth May from the leaders debate. After pressure from the Liberals and Canadian citizens, the NDP and leader Jack Layton backed down, and the Greens were included.

McQuaig isn't talking about excluding the other parties she must not consider contenders from all debates though, apparently. Just from this one.

.@cafreeland Yes -- all candidates debates! How 'bout extra one on impt topic -- rising inequality -- we've both studied? #torcen #cdnpoli
— Linda McQuaig (@LindaMcQuaig) October 21, 2013

Of course, an additional debate of just two so-called front-runners isn't a new idea either. In the 2011 election, Stephen Harper challenged then Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff to a one-on-one debate that would have excluded the NDP's Layton. Ignatieff quickly accepted the challenge; Harper then quickly changed his mind -- he wanted it to replace all leaders debates. And that obviously wasn't on.

In retrospect, such a debate would have been rather arrogant and exclusionary, as fun as it all was at the time. The voters like to decide for themselves among all the candidates though, as the results of that election (vaulting the NDP into the official opposition) would show.

Which brings us back to Layton. What would he have to say about having a separate one-on-one debate that doesn't include other parties, as McQuaig is seeking to do in Toronto-Centre? Well, we know what he had to say about it in 2011:



Layton called this idea an "anti-democratic approach" the he didn't think was right or would be accepted by Canadians. He noted it "prejudges the position of Canadians" and compared it to American-style politics. So Layton, clearly, would have a problem with what the NDP is proposing in Toronto-Centre.

One has to wonder if McQuaig ran this by new NDP leader Tom Mulcair. And one also has to wonder what McQuaig and Freeland would debate, as most of McQuaig's ideas on the topic have been soundly and publicly disavowed by Mulcair as unrepresentative of the party's position.

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Liberals and NDP pick their Toronto-Centre by-election candidates

A busy day in downtown Toronto on Sunday, as both the Liberals and the NDP picked their candidates to replace Bob Rae as the MP for Toronto-Centre at nomination meetings just a subway stop apart. It made for interesting comparisons, and I attendeed both meetings.

The Storify below shares some of the highlights of my live-tweeting and selected tweets by others, so I won't rehash the entire day at length. Rather, I'll share some thoughts on the result and, with respect to the other parties, the marquee match-up of the upcoming by-election: Liberal Chrystia Freeland and NDPer Linda McQuaig.

As a Liberal, I think Hollet would have concerned me more. She's more in the mold of a polished politician, more moderate, younger, has the Much Music cred, and would have been a threat to woo moderate Liberal/NDP swing voters. McQuaig is much more the voice of the left wing NDP base. She has national profile, communicates forcefully, knows her stuff, and will no doubt have a very well-funded campaign. She will energize their base, but can she grow it? I'm sceptical, but she'll need to in order to win.

I mentioned comparisons; here's one. We heard a lot more about Justin Trudeau and the Liberals from the NDP than we did about Tom Mulcair and the NDP (or the Harper Conservatives) from the Liberals. Sensible strategy, but also telling. In her pre-vote speech, McQuaig was already looking past Hollet and running hard against Freeland. The NDP are going to run a negative and personal campaign, against both Freeland and Trudeau. It will be interesting to see how the Liberals respond.

I got to see both Freeland and McQuaig speak today; again, another interesting comparison. Both highly intelligent, accomplished women, with strong and differing views on economic issues. Both very different styles. McQuaig is vocal, in your voice, knock you over with the point. Freeland is more conversational, build an argument, persuade you. Both styles have merit. I think McQuaig's forcefulness will begin to grate, but Freeland is going to need to fight back strongly too. If McQuaig's challenge will be to moderate, Freeland's will be to develop her skills as a retail politician that can give as well as she takes.

It is shaping up as a very interesting race, and I look forward to seeing how it plays out. No, I don't mean them both being journalists -- only other journalists care about that. We're probably about to hear more actual substantive debate about economic policy than we've had in Canadian politics in a generation, which ain't a bad thing (Harper only says he's focused on the economy, he doesn't much talk about it).

Elections should be about clear choices on important issues, and both sides will get a good hearing from Freeland and McQuaig.

UPDATE: Pundit's Guide was also at both meetings, and offers her take here with 23 differences between the two meetings.

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Expectations met, smidgen of breathing room gained

I’m just getting the chance this evening to sit down and read some of the blog and media coverage of last night’s by-elections. It’s been interesting, to say the least. I suspect the Liberals could have taken four out of four with 90 per cent pluralities and I’d still be reading from some Con trolls how it was a massive Liberal failure. It’s as predictable as the sun setting in the West.

Vancouver-Quadra

Speaking of the West, let’s start there. Liberal Joyce Murray pulled-out a win, but it was a squeaker. The first factor to be considered is that this is a riding the Conservatives should have been competitive in, so it’s no surprise they were. Go back into the not too distant past and they held this seat. It’s wealthy, its in the West, very establishment, the kind of seat that should be able to make a strong showing in. Former Liberal MP Stephen Owen was very personally popular here, Murray didn’t have the same roots in the riding so its unsurprising she didn’t hang on to his healthy margin.

I hear the Cons mobilized a big get out the vote push in Quadra, all hands on deck. Given this push from central office, and with how close they came, one wonders why they didn’t send in Harper to do some campaigning with their candidate, Deborah Meredith. I mean I don’t like the guy, but some people seem to and it may have made the difference here. Were they afraid of Cadman questions? I dunno, but its puzzling.

As has been said the big story here is the strong showing of the Green Party, and their candidate Dan Grice, who finished just a few hundred votes behind the NDP. It appears he pulled some votes off the Liberals too. Also noteworthy is the NDP totals, only they and the Liberals went down in vote share from 2006. In this riding, I think the undecideds turned to the Greens to oppose Harper, rejecting both Liberal abstentions and NDP obsession with attacking for the Liberals.

And for my Liberals, what to make of it? Well, as they say it only takes one vote to win, the rest is just ego. So we’ll take to win, and Joyce’s ego will stay in check. I think as she gets into the house and the people get to know here better, she’ll have a stronger margin in the general election. By-election dynamics are different, there tends to be less message-sending.

That said, we should look carefully at the low result in B.C. What went wrong? Was it GOTV? Did the message not sell? Is Dion a drag in B.C.? How will that impact our B.C. strategy? The fact is, we need to hold our seats in B.C., and we need to gain a few in the general. We have a strong team there that has built our seat total the last few times out, I trust they’ll examine these results and adjust the strategy as needed.

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River

Given all that has happened in this riding, I was expecting a loss but I’d have hoped for a closer result. Remember, this was a squeaker last time for a very popular Liberal candidate.

First of all, the appointment factor. Joan Beatty is a strong candidate, deserving of an appointment, and doing so was consistent with Dion’s campaign promise to get more female candidates. That said, the party badly botched the handling of the appointment. It rubbed many in the riding the wrong way. Some didn’t vote, some just didn’t vote Liberal, many sat on their hands, and we didn’t get the vote out. Low turnout, the Cons got their vote out, and they got a healthy win.

Then there’s the David Orchard factor. I don’t like the way he was treated, as I’ve said before if he was good enough to be embraced by Dion in Montreal at the leadership, its hard to tag him undesirable less than two years later. That said, I can’t help but feel we dodged a bullet here. I’m not sure he would have done any better than Beatty, but there’s a way to rise above and be a person, and even though he was moved aside the way he and his followers handled it I think has finished him with the LPC. Advice to the NDP: stay away, stay far away if this guy comes knocking.

Anyway, this isn’t a crushing loss for the Liberals by any means. We should take its lessons though. Such as if you’re going to do appointments, don’t be stupid about them, but show some diplomacy and some tact. And we should remember that grassroots organization counts, and if you alienate them they won’t get the vote out for you.

Toronto-Centre

Bob Rae kicked some ass, not too much to analyze there. A bigger plurality than Bill Graham, so expectations exceeded there. I don’t agree with Bob on some key strategy issues but I’ll say this: he’s a helluva skilled politician. He’s experienced and he’s smooth, he’s going to be deadly in question period.

The real story is further down the ballot. First of all, the Conservatives just got creamed. A piddly 12.3 per cent of the vote, I’m sorry but that’s just embarrassing for a national party that forms the government and wants a majority. They got outpolled by the Green Party! They can spin all they want, it’s Toronto, Bob Rae, blah blah, but there’s no spinning away they lost big time here.

And the NDP only hung onto second by a mere 15 votes. As I’ve said Chris Tindal ran a helluva campaign for the Green Party, he and his team are to be commended. El-Farouk Khaki was a star NDP candidate though, they have a strong base in this riding, even running against a former NDP Premier they should have done much better.

Willowdale

A big win for Martha Hall-Findlay too, improving on Jim Peterson’s plurality. It was clear early she was on good shape. The sign wars can be misleading, but while the Liberals and Conservatives looked even in signs on e-day morning, most of the Con signs were on public property. On lawns, where people had to give a yey or nay, Martha had the lead hands-down. Also interestingly, we door knocked in our polls Monday morning before heading to the polling place to scrutineer: I only saw one NDP lawn sign. Very little presence at all.

Very low turnout at the polls, a very quiet day of reading in an elementary school gymnasium. If volunteer support is any indicator of ballot support it may be telling that the Liberals had four of us for the five polls, open to close, the Conservatives two that came in late afternoon, and the NDP none. The count went quickly, and it was clear Martha had this thing by a healthy margin.

The strong margin for Martha was important to show that she could hold, and build on, Peterson’s numbers. The Cons were respectable at 30 per cent, comparable to their 2006 number. That has to be somewhat disappointing though. This isn’t a downtown riding, and it has a strong immigrant community, so this number would seem to argue that the Cons’ urban outreach, and their ethnic outreach, aren’t working.

The NDP numbers have to be troubling for them here though, finishing behind the Green Party candidate. Even more striking though is the fact there was no big green surge here form 2006. Instead, the NDP lost six per cent of its vote pulling in just 4.8 per cent. That’s not just a GOTV organization failure, that’s a rejection of the message.

Overall thoughts

Liberals: We did what we had to do, but barely. We won the two we were well assured of by convincing margins. We got a scare in a race that was expected to be tight in Quadra, and hopefully a wake-up call. And we got a deserved loss in Saskatchewan, an expected one but one we can hopefully build on. I’ll add there were votes we could have gained in Quadra, and I think we didn’t get them because our masterful abstention strategy hasn’t gone unnoticed. We can’t continue down this path much longer without the problem becoming more pronounced. Anyway, the dogs nipping at Dions heels have been leashed, but they’re still snarling. We’ve got a window now to digest these lessons, make corrections, pull together as a team and build towards an election. And let’s also note that two strong new female Liberals will be joining the Liberal caucus, that’s great news. I’ll call it expectations met, but just.

Conservatives: Given the tightness of the vote in 2006 the Saskatchewan pick-up wouldn’t have been a major victory for them, but given the healthiness of the margin they have every reason to feel good about the results. They’ll have a hard fight on the Prairies, in other ridings mainly with the NDP, and they’re still fighting hard. Now Quadra would have been a major blow had they been able to pull it off. And it would have served to temper very bad results in the two Toronto ridings, particularly centre. As I wrote in my by-election preview, the Conservatives needed to show some forward momentum in these ridings, some payoff for their wooing of ethnic communities, for example. They’re never going to get a majority without urban pickups, and it looks like it’s back to the drawing-board on that front. Given the pick-up I’d call it a wash for the Cons overall, but the urban situation is going to hold them down if unaddressed.

NDP: I’d be hard pressed to find any positives on the night for the NDP. Behind the Greens in Willowdale, barely ahead of the Greens in Toronto-Centre, non-factors in Saskatchewan and less than a per cent ahead of the Greens in Quadra. I’m not sure how they’ll respond to these results. My admittedly biased view is that the NDP strategy of running hard against the Liberals, and not focusing as much on the Cons, has been soundly rejected by the electorate. When people wanted to register their Harper displeasure but were turned off by the Liberal abstentions, instead of turning to the NDP as planned they went Green, turned off by the NDP strategy as much as the Liberal strategy. Smart NDPers will be re-evaluating, time will tell if they carry the day within the party or not.

Greens: The unquestioned winners of the night, with strong showings in the two most urban ridings, and in Willowdale, at least compared to a weak NDP showing. The question, however, will be how much of it was a protest vote. The Green pitch was send a message, it’s a by-election. Next time it won’t be. Will they be able to hold their gains, or will the electorate re-polarize along pro/anti Harper lines? It’s tough to say. I don’t think the Greens are going away, depending on what the NDP do to adjust there may be more ground for them to gain. I think they’ll keep their gains, but how much more they’ll build is tough to say. While I think protest was a strong part of these results, they’ve also gained legitimacy, which will bring more media attention. That gives them more of a chance to be taken seriously, and take their message to Canadians. That offers, at least, a chance to convert protesters into supporters. Clearly, they’ll need to be taken seriously.

Lastly, for all of the by-election sound and fury, as the low turnout shows the biggest winner Monday night was apathy. Most Canadians still don't give a crap, don't care for any of the parties, and aren't showing much sign of warming to anyone. Will anything ever come along to happen to change this status quo? Will one of the parties be able to make it happen? Time will tell.

Pictures

In closing, a few snaps from the Martha’s victory party Monday night in Willowdale:

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Expectations: They're not just for Liberals

Well, at long last it's by-election day and, while I've been reading much in the media and the blogsphere about the expectations on the Liberals today, I've not heard much about the expectations on the other parties. Which must be nice for them, I suppose, it sets the bar pretty low. It shouldn't be though.

Now that's not to say there aren't heavy expectations on the Liberals. These were, after all, four Liberal seats and number of big names are running for the party. Which is why Stephen Harper waited as long as he could to call them. Myself, I think given the tight margin of victory in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River in the last election, for the Liberals taking three out of four (Quadra, Toronto-Centre and Willowdale) would be an expectations met, and four out of four a bonus.

There's been much written on the Liberal expectations though, so I don't want to belabour those points. Instead, I wanted to consider the expectations for the other parties. Because while these aren't held seats, even if they don't take any of these seats I still think the other parties have expectations they need to meet.

The Conservatives probably have their best shot in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, particularly if Liberal Joan Beatty and the NDP candidate split the vote. It will be interesting to see if the Conservative handing of the wheat board issue is a factor at all. However, I'll be more interested to see how the CPC fares in the three urban ridings.

Now the Conservatives will say they have 0 expectations in these ridings, these are urban ridings not inclined to vote Conservative. True enough. But if Stephen Harper is ever going to have a chance at a majority government he's going to have to start winning some seats in urban ridings. And not by appointing unelecting Senators or enticing people accross the floor with cabinet posts. He's had two years to woo urban voters, and Jason Kenney has spent a lot of time trying to bring multicultural voters onside. It's time to see if it's been working or not and the results in Willowdale, with a 56 per cent immigrant population, should be watched to see if Kenney has been making progress. The old byelection maxim is that they tend to be used to send a message to the government, but nevertheless I think the Conservatives are going to have to, at a bare minimum, show some forward momentum and build their vote in some of these ridings to meet expectations. If they can't start gaining ground in urban Canada they'll never get a majority, and some serious introspection by the CPC braintrust will be needed.

For the NDP, there are expectations to be met as well. Again, their best shot is probably Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, they have a lot of ground to make up from 2006 but it's possible and a win there could set them up as the default CPC alternative on the Praries in the general election, a region where there are CPC seats up for grabs. In the other three ridings though, particulrly Quadra and Toronto-Centre, they need to show some momentum as well. I'm not saying they need to win. But they should increase their vote. They've been running hard against the Liberals, both in these ridings and nationally, with the whole we'll stand-up to Harper and the Liberals won't theme. I'll be watching these results for indications of a verdict on this strategy, which should have a better chance of meeting a receptive audience in urban ridings like these. Even with the Bob Rae X factor, I think the NDP needs to show at least moderate vote gains in some of these ridings to meet expectations.

Particularly interesting, I think, at least from my centre of the universe perspective, will be the race for second and third in Toronto-Centre. The NDP was solidly in second in 2006, they'll need to replicate that finish to meet expectations. The Conservatives were third and they'll need to at least close the gap somewhat to meet expectations. The X factor here though will be the Green Party. Chris Tindal has run a very strong campaign and generated a lot of buzz. With all the contreversy around the Cons dumping Mark Warner and a weak campaign from Don Meredith, it's not inconvievable to see the Greens move past the Cons for third, which would be deeply embarassing for the Conservatives. If Tindal could pull of a miracle and overtake the Farouk El-Khaki for second, pulling votes from the Cons while Rae pulls from the NDP, the bodyblow to the NDP would be even deeper. That's much more of a longshot though, but it should be interesting to watch.

Anyway, the point is there are expectations to be met by all the parties Monday. Except for the Bloc Quebecois, they can take the day off. But while the pundits will be focused on the seat counts, which of course aren't unimportant, a deeper analysis of the numbers today will also be illuminating and telling as to where all the parties stand going forward.

If you live in one of the four ridings, make sure you get out and vote.

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NDP/Tory, same old (negative advertising) story

As mentioned yesterday, on Monday evening I ventured downtown for an all candidates debate for Toronto-Centre ahead of Monday’s by-election.

While there, of course, I was handed and picked-up all manner of political brochures and propaganda. And the similarities between two of the hand-outs, both from different parties, was quite striking.

Here’s the first one, from the campaign of Conservative candidate Don Meredith:

He’s going after Stephane Dion, no surprise there.

Now lets look at a brochure from NDP candidate El-Farouk Khaki:


Looks like he’s campaigning against Dion too. What’s that you say, Stephen Harper? He’s the Prime Minister? Who’s that, never heard of him. Liberals bad!

Actually this is unsurprising again, the NDP have been mainly running against the Liberals since the last election campaign, and every day since. This is no doubt a preview of their campaign strategy for the general election too: soft-play Harper, go hard against Dion and the Liberals. Khaki very nearly parroted the Cons' "not a leader" line too.

It’s just amusing to see that, not only to the NDP and the Conservatives have the same attack lines, their brochures are so similar I’m not sure who is copying who.

On another note, Bob Rae called out both the Cons and the NDP at the debate for their negative campaigning, while complimenting the Green Party’s Chris Tindal for his positive, issues-oriented campaign. He also accused the NDP of distorting the photo of Dion they used on the brochure to make him look worse, a charge Khaki denied.

I’ve zoomed in on the pic in question, take a look and let me know what you think:


It looks a little blurry to me, but I’m not sure that it’s been distorted or photoshopped. It’s certainly an unflattering photo, but c’est la guerre. So I’m not sure I’m sold on Bob’s charge.

*Forgive the creases on the scans, the brochures were folded and stuffed in my pocket for the subway ride home.

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The candidates debate in Toronto Centre

Last night I ventured downtown to the St. Lawrence Centre for the Arts for the final public all candidates debate for Toronto-Centre ahead of the March 17^th by-elections.

The theme was the role of the federal government in improving city life, although it didn’t stick to that theme in the Q&A. In attendance were the NDP’s El-Farouk Khaki, the Conservatives’ Don Meredith, the Liberals’ Bob Rae and the Green Party’s Chris Tindal.

The theatre was pretty full, the lobby overflowing and the crowd boisterous. It was my first time experiencing an all candidates meeting in an urban riding, and I must say it was a larger scale than in my rural experiences. Lots of non-related pamphleteers out front.

I thought Bob Rae did well. His political experience certainly showed, and he looked very relaxed on the stage. I was pleased to see he didn’t run away from Stephane Dion, but mentioned his name multiple times in his opening statement and regularly throughout the evening. I liked his point about the real fiscal imbalance being between the federal government and the municipalities, and his comment about making transfers to the cities incentive-based to reward green investment. I was also pleased to hear him support a call for a green tax shift, something not currently in Liberal policy but that he hinted may soon be. And since he’s co-chair of the platform committee it’s probably a safe bet. He also called for control of the Toronto port authority, including Island Airport, to be given to the city.

CPC candidate Don Merideth had a tough go of it. I almost feel bad for him, because he seems like a decent guy, and I don’t think he’s personally too far apart from most of the people in the room on many issues. Unfortunately he’s forced to sell a party with very different views, and people just weren’t buying. He said again and again the Conservatives are investing in and are committed to social housing and fighting poverty. People laughed. On safer ground talking crime, he said Liberals stood idly by in 2005 while “blood ran on our streets” and was booed down for the disgusting comment. On a foreign policy question, he mixed-up Afghanistan and Iraq not once, not twice, but at least thrice, talking about how our Liberal-inherited mission in Iraq was so important, ignoring the increasingly loud yells of Afghanistan! until the moderator stepped in. He said no to a carbon tax. I will give him credit for distancing himself from Jim Flaherty’s Ontario bashing. Ontario is not the 5^th province, he said, and Toronto is the economic engine of the country.

The NDP’s candidate, El-Farouk Khaki, didn’t impress me. When he wasn’t on script I liked some of what he had to say, but he seemed uncomfortable and very scripted. He kept harping on leadership, whether it fit the context or not, it was his answer to nearly everything. And I wasn’t impressed at all at the vocal NDPers in the audience who tried to shout-down Bob Rae with calls of Traitor! a number of times as he tried to speak. Not classy at all.

Along with Rae I’d say the most comfortable and at ease candidate on the stage was the Green Party’s Chris Tindal. He has the only candidate to have ran in the riding previously so that probably helped and, as he joked, allowed him to claim a kind of incumbency. He almost seemed to be doing a little stand-up comedy at times. But he also got some of the loudest ovations, and showed a strong grasp of issues green and non-green. I liked some of his comments around fair trade, for example, although we disagree on Afghanistan. He also got in some good shots at some of the other candidates. He rightly called Meredith out for trying to pass off a dollar figure that included highways funding as being all for transit. And, pointing out how it was nice Rae was calling for a green tax shift, that’s not Liberal policy today and if you want a green tax shift maybe you should vote for one that supports it today.

Even Rae said Tindal is the candidate on the stage that he most respects, and the only one of his opponents to run a campaign on ideas and issues. This is a by-election, and I think Tindal may have scored when he said if we elect a Green we’ll make history, and if you don’t like me you can vote me out in another month, week, or whenever the next election is.

I hear he has a lot of volunteers, and has raised more money than the NDP. Given the level of support he had in the room, I wonder how many people in the room may be planning a Green protest vote. Particularly Liberal supporters. It’s a pretty safe bet Rae will take this thing, even Meredith said it would “be a miracle” if he won. Given that it’s likely to be a Liberal win anyway, and given that Rae has been one of the anti-election leaders, I wonder how many Liberals might decide the way to send a message to the leadership is with a Green protest vote?

Might be something to watch next Monday.

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Bob Rae to have heart surgery

Good luck and best wishes to Bob Rae, I hope all goes well and he’s back on his feet fighting the good fight and taking-on the Conservatives in Toronto Centre soon…

Former Ontario premier Bob Rae will undergo heart surgery next week at a Toronto hospital to repair his aorta, which has developed a slow-growing aneurysm.

“I am in excellent health and I'm having the operation because I want to stay in excellent health,” Mr. Rae said in a statement released Wednesday.

“Doctors have determined that surgery now is the wisest treatment. They are very optimistic about a positive outcome, and expect a return to a full and active schedule after surgery and about six weeks of recovery time,” the statement says.
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