I don't normally like to write about polls as I think they're generally useless and a waste of time, but the Vancouver Sun has a piece today on a new poll that does contain some interesting analysis and starting points for debate on the tasks facing both Liberals and Conservatives in the run-up to the next election.
The poll was done online by The Innovative Research Group and their spokesperson is a long-time Conservative back room boy, so I wouldn't put too much faith in the numbers and I'd take his analysis with a grain of salt. Still, his thesis is to layout how Harper can build a winning coalition and he lays out the factors well enough.
According to Lyle, Harper has a base of about 3 in 10 Canadians or 28 per cent of the population. They're:...a little better off financially than most citizens, care relatively less about the environment, hate the gun registry and are typically uncomfortable with gay marriage, take a tougher approach to crime, and mostly don't view Canada's social safety net as a "sacred trust."
They're dubbed "Harper's Canadians" and they're not enough to get him his majority.To do that he needs to get a significant chunk of the swing voters, the 17 per cent of Canadians that said they'd consider voting Conservative. That 45 per cent is the limit of the Conservative vote, the other 55 per cent, according to the survey, would never vote Conservative. So Harper ignores them, he needs to woo that 17 per cent. And that's what this past year has been all about, that 17 per cent of Canadians.
...Harper can win a significant chunk of those potential swing voters, securing another election win and possibly a majority government, by seeking to avoid public attention on issues where the Tories aren't seen favourably by the swing group -- such as health care, gay marriage and the environment...
The issues that unite the swing group with core Tories, and separate them from the anti-Tory group, are crime, the economy, Canada's relationship with the U.S., and ethics -- all issues where Harper gets strong ratings. Lyle said two-thirds of the swing group believe the government could easily cut taxes without major service cutbacks "if they really wanted to," while just under half say "it's hard to get by" when faced with monthly bills.
That's why early in the Harper government we saw the "tough on crime" bills, the "Accountability" Act and other issues, and are hearing more on crime recently with this hair brained idea. And expect a budget next month with oodles of tax breaks targeted at that 17 per cent.
Our job
So, how do the Liberals stop Harper from building his winning coalition? On paper, at least, it's realitevly simple, though in practice rather less so: we need to control the message.
We need to move up on the public agenda those issues that turn off that group of swing voters from Harper, such as health care and the environment. You can see Harper has already been trying to eliminate these issues: he had the vote on gay marriage, he's been pretending action on wait times, and he's trying to reclaim the environmental issue, or at least take it away from us. If he can neutralize these issues as mission accomplished then they don't become liabilities for him with those swing voters and he can move on to the issues that bind those swing voters to his base. We can't let him do that.
And then there's those issues that woo the swing voters into the Harper camp: crime, the economy, Canada/US relations and ethics. Just like Harper is trying to take the environment from us, we need to attack him on some of these issues, and dilute his advantage. And I think there is much fertile ground here.
Take ethics, the difference between Harper's rhetoric on ethics and his action has been astounding, from floor crossing and unelected ministers to staffers becoming lobbyists to a patronage orgy and the bypassing of screening practices, the list is endless and we need to show Canadians Harper is no ethical Snow White. Yes, they'll come back with the Liberals bad defence. Doesn't matter. Look at how they're attacking us on the environment. Like them on the environment, here we just need to neutralize the issue so Harper doesn't have it anymore.
Then there's the crime issue. We need to help Canadians to look past the rhetoric and see that all these "tough on crime" bills from the Conservatives may sound good, but they've been tried in the U.S. and they just don't work. We need to get the facts out there to show this is just bluster that won't help anything. We need to show that crime rates have actually been steadily declining while still acknowledging many people are still concerned and come forward with real, concrete proposals of our own.
The economy should be our issue, and we need to reclaim it. After all, it was a Liberal government that finally balanced the budget, returned surplus after surplus, and presided over an era of strong economic and employment growth. We need to meet them on the tax cut proposal front, explaining why the Conservative approach with cutting the GST is shortsighted, trumpet our own record of effective tax relief, and come forward with new proposals. And a more mature approach then the LPC has had in the past to Canada/US relations would be nice too.
Lastly
I'm going to take issue with Lyle for this statement here:
"He's coming in with a very passionate, positive base. When he started the last campaign he was struggling to mobilize his base. Now they're not just sort of complacent, they're happy, they're enthusiastic."
I wouldn't take that base for granted. I think Lyle is spinning at least a bit here. Harper's base might not be upset but enthusiastic, happy? I'm not so sure. Take the anti-gay marriage portion of his base, they saw through his sham vote around reopening SSM and they're not impressed. Will they swallow it or will they stay home? The Quebecois nation motion had to be a shock to some of that Western base, and dido the all-out wooing of Quebec. Then there's the Conservative musing about ending tax breaks for the oil sands. And how about those seniors that lost much of their retirement savings on Harper's income trusts flip-flop?
The question is, as Harper tries to move to the centre to appeal to those swing voters, at what point does some of his base start to feel abandoned and neglected? Maybe he can pull it off, but I think he may be overreaching just a little bit. The question is, what can we as Liberals do to push a little wedge in there between Harper and some of that base?
