Saturday, December 02, 2006

First round results are out....

The first round results have been posted on the Liberal Web site, and with CPAC filming the scene in the blogger batcave. And as we saw the results on the screen...stunned silence was the reaction. Wow.

The top four:

Michael Ignatieff 29 per cent
Bob Rae 20 per cent
Stephane Dion 17.8 per cent
Gerard Kennedy 17.7 per cent

Everyone is just stunned. Iggy at less than 30 per cent is a death knell for the Ignatieff campaign. They've been spinning 32 to 35 per cent. The symbolism of his being at less than 30 per cent is huge. I think Ignatieff's days are numbered. With the buzz around the convention being that Michael has very, very little second choice support I don't see how he can get to 50 per cent plus one. Wow.

Rae at 20 per cent, but Stephane and Gerard not far behind mean the candidate that will be going up against Iggy is still very much in the air. Rae getting Volpe will give him a bump, but the second ballot is going to be very, very interesting.

Stephane in third place, even if only by a scant four votes, wow! Yess!! Lots of happy Dion supporters here right now. Gerard's people had been spinning they'd be in third with a comfortable margin, this has to be very demoralizing for them tonight. Second ballot will tell the tale as this is far from over, but with these results, the Allan Rock endorsement and a great speech tonight, I am a very optimistic, enthusiastic and happy Dionista tonight!

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Bailey said...

You know, I have to say, that as a Kennedy supporter I was hoping that he'd be in third after the first ballot. But surprisingly I'm not as disappointed as I thought I'd be.

I think that Ignatieff has a lot of work to go. He has to show some sort of momentum tomorrow after the 2nd ballot, otherwise it's over.

I want to point out though, as I don't think enough people do, that it's only just over 2% swing between Dion or Kennedy and Rae. That's not a huge gap to overcome to become 2nd place.

Steve V said...

The Dion camp should be ecstatic Jeff!

Rev.Paperboy said...

I think Ignatieff is going to continue to bleed support until he gets down to the third ballot, where he will peak at about 25% in a four way near tie. that is why the key question is where Dryden's 240 votes will go after he drops out and where the Iggy defectors go on the second ballot. Hang onto your hats folks, we got us a real dogfight here.

Anonymous said...

A very happy Dion supportor here at home in Vancouver, cannot wait for the morning and the second ballot result.
The hype that "Iggy" has brought with him did not work, a little to self absorbed to think that if he profess his advantage, arrogant as he appears to me, that it might be true.
So, we will wait and see what tomorow brings.
Enjoy what looks to be from here, a very energetic and exciting convention and party.

Steve V said...

BTW Jeff, nice piece with you on CTV Newsnet :)

leftdog said...

Yes the CTV Newsnet piece was very nice - (good for blogging in general).
Dion with only 2 votes ahead of Kennedy - closer than I would have thought.

Anonymous said...

irrational exuberance. No liberal leadership candidate has ever lost with the lead MI has. He has by far more ex-officios than any other campaign and the first round votes were largely cast before his electrifying speech. This is FAR from over.

Aaron said...

Stephane Dion deserves alot of credit for his constant performance (clarity act, kyoto). People I think believe him when he speaks which is something the party needs. But I don't think that his biggest gains will come before the third ballot.

Penelope Persons said...

There is a God!!

So far....

Hey. glad to see you on TV too, Jeff!!

And thanks for keeping us up-to-date. I was about to go to bed and chew my fingernails all night.

Which I will probably do, anyway. What suspense!!