Harper's control freakishness coming back to bite him

Very interesting story the other day from the CP's Bruce Cheadle on how Harper's once famed communications acumen seems to have deserted him lately, with perhaps his still famed control freakishness to blame.

It's been rare to see the media turning a critical, or even uncomplimentary, eye on Harper of late. It will be interesting to see if it's an isolated incident, or if perhaps they'll begin to call him on some of his manipulations, distortions and flip-flops.

Either way, it has really not week a good stretch of late for the Conservative crew...

Unravelling story threads reveal Tory communications chaos
By BRUCE CHEADLE

OTTAWA (CP) - It's like one of those little stray threads that Prime Minister Stephen Harper pays his stylist-valet to manage. Yank it the wrong way, and everything unravels.

After more than a year of wrestling the communications beast with grim-willed determination, the minority Conservative government spent the past two weeks ducking and deking and deliberately misleading in perhaps their worst fortnight since the 2006 federal election.
(more)

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This is your 6:15 am wake-up call

Apologies for the lack of blogging of late but it's been a busy period at work lately with a lot of travel. Last week as mentioned I was in Atlanta, and this week it's St. Louis for IBM's PartnerWorld conference.

Blessfully, next week I'm off to Courtenay, BC for a week and a half of vacation in the hometown, Can't wait. And of course, having booked with my Aeroplan points, I get to spend a night in Calgary on the way back. Not that I should complain, could have been Saskatoon...

I had hoped to go see the Cardinals and Cubs play a little baseball last night, but the unfortunate death of Cards pitcher John Hancock. Had also hoped to use my afternoon off yesterday to go up the famed St. Louis arch (didn't know there was an observation deck, I just thought it was a big arch) but a splitting headache (perhaps too much travel lately) confined me to my room after popping some Tylenol.

A thought occurred to me this morning though as I woke-up (blessedly headache free). Whenever I travel I generally use the hotel's wake-up service for my morning wake-up call. This morning, the phone woke me at the unfortunately ungodly hour of 6:15 am.

When you pick up the phone it's generally a recorded message greeting you, yet for some reason I always respond with a "thank-you" before hanging-up the phone and flipping on CNN, despite the fact it's just an automated message.

I wonder, am I the only one that thanks the computerized voice? Is is a product of my Canadian politeness, or my inability to function coherently early in the morning?

Such are the thoughts I ponder when I should be listening to the details of IBM's social networking initiatives for partners...

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Release music that doesn’t suck

As a student at Carleton U back in the day I spent far too much time at the campus newspaper office and not enough time studying. That time did make for some amusing anecdotes though, and I was reminded of one of them this morning when I heard I heard a story on Newsnet about the Canadian recording industry complaining about declining CD sales.

One afternoon a few members of the university swim team came up to the office in a huff, wanting to speak to the sports editor. He came over and introduced himself, and proceeded to quietly listen as the swimmers aired their complaints. They were upset with the tenor of the coverage they had been getting from the Charlatan, and wanted to know just what the heck they had to do to get better coverage.

Having heard them out, my friend the sports editor looked at them deadpan and said calmly “swim faster.”

I was reminded of that story when I heard about the recording industry whining. They complain that old culprit, online music piracy, is eroding in store album sales and they’re demanding the government take action to fight piracy.

In reality, the reason CD sales are declining isn’t online piracy. At least, not wholly. Hey recording industry, want higher album sales? Try recording albums that don’t suck.

There’s a lot of spin and selective information in the recording industry line here. Sure, in store CD sales are down. But (legal) online single-song sales are dramatically up. The spin doctors ignore that fact. People are buying online now, but rather than buying an entire album of songs they’re only buying the songs they like.

Thanks to the online model no longer are people forced to buy an album of crap to get the few songs they want. That’s why album sales are down. If the recording industry wants to sell more of each album the answer is simple, stop filling albums with a lot of crap.

And again, there’s also (another) a big fat contradiction in the recording industry line here. While they rail against piracy, whenever someone buys an MP3 player, or even a blank CD I intend to backup my photos on, I need to pay a levy to the recording industry. That levy seems to me, and I believe perhaps the Canadian courts as well, as a tacit permission for file sharing/downloading from the recording industry. After all, what are we paying the levy for anyway?

It’s time the recording industry wakes up to the new technology, that’s been readily obvious for years. But once again there’s another, even easier answer to their ails: stop recording so much crap.

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Liberal TV ad 2.0

The Liberal Party has released a follow-up ad to their earlier television ad this morning. It picks up and builds on the same theme, climate change, as the previous ad, but it's a bit longer and takes a shot at the Harper Conservatives as well. I'll say that I thought the zoom-in of the baby was a bit cheesy, but otherwise I like this ad. I think the addition of the shot at Harper and pivot back to Dion effective, and I like the added footage from Dion at the end and the positive, hopeful message it portrays.

Compare this ad to those lame CPC 'not a leader' ads. Those were just negative for the sake of being negative. This ad calls Harper on his record, but on a policy point and as part of a larger policy message. It's a telling difference.

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Bring on the Ducks!

As mentioned earlier I'm down in Atlanta right now at a conference, but even in the Southern U.S. I still think I heard a large thump last night as Canucks fans scrambled back on the bandwagon. From doom and gloom to Stanley Cup here we come!

I was lucky enough to find the game on Versus in my hotel room last night. Figured I'd be out of luck. But after I filed an exciting story on Sobey's use of SAP software I flipped on the tv and there it was, early second period.

Looks like they finally found the Sedin twins, and about time too. Also a great game from Trevor Linden, who will always be Captain Canuck to me. And what can you say about Bobby-Lou? But Markus Naslund, has anyone seen him? I thought maybe he was hurt or something, but then he took a penalty. Someone needs to give him a kick in the ass. And Alain Vigneault may be just the guy to do it; his rant after game six was perfect.

So, now it's the Ducks. Bring them on!

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No fishing polls at the aquarium, please

I'm down in Atlanta this week at SAP's annual Sapphire user conference, one of the larger conference and trade shows still on the enterprise IT circuit. Beautiful weather, but not a city I'd want to be wandering around after dark, I don't think.

Anyway, while it's been all work and no play (just in case the boss is reading...and if he's not, I recommend the CNN tour) I did come across this rather interesting note on the Web site of the Georgia Aquarium while, um, researching, yeah, researching....

All guests must go through security checkpoints before entering the Aquarium. No guns, knives, lighters, matches or fishing poles are permitted inside.

I mean, have they had troubles with people trying to fish in the aquarium in the past?

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Playing with fire

Reading this piece today I couldn't help but be a little nervous. Because if I've learned anything from following politics over the past few years, it's that making friends with Danny Williams is like staring at the sun. Ask Paul Martin and Steve Harper, I think they'll back me up on that.

Mr. Dion and Mr. Williams met Saturday in St. John's and discussed several issues, including equalization and the province's fisheries, after which Mr. Williams said Mr. Dion is a man he can trust.

The pair said they hadn't intended to reach any formal agreements, but rather open a dialogue that would continue if Mr. Dion is elected prime minister.

Well thank-god for that. I know the enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that, just tread carefully is all I'm sayin. Sure, Danny will be your best friend for now, but just wait...

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Missing

Names: Daniel and Henrik Sedin
Born: Ornskoldsvik, Sweden
Date: September 26, 1980
Last seen: Game one of the Western Conference Quarterfinal NHL Playoff series

If seen, please contact Alain Vigneault, head coach, Vancouver Canucks.

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Greens may not field candidate in St. Catherines

It's far from a done deal, but according to a story in the St. Catherines Standard there is a movement afoot amongst local Greens to not field a candidate in the next election, and instead endorse Liberal candidate and former MP Walt Lastewka (h/t Mark).

As the story indicates, Conservative Rick Dykstra beat Lastewka by 246 votes last election, while Green Party candidate Jim Fannon won 2305 votes, more than enough to swing the riding.

Fannon, who is now communications director for the riding association, says he'll present a motion at an upcoming riding motion declaring the riding won't field a candidate in the next campaign. And Fannon would like to see Greens support Lastewka.

“I think this is the kind of motion that will show this is not politics as usual, and that the Green party does do things differently,” Fannon said. “Canadians have recently elected two minority governments. They want parities working together, and that is what this is all about."

It's far from a done deal, and not everyone is supportive. The Green riding president, Sergio Panone, is unhappy with Fannon's idea and the Dion/May deal. Riding CEO Sarah Giovannone also wants to seek the Green nomination herself. She said though that she feels the decision on whether or not to run a Green candidate in St. Catherines should be made locally, not nationally.

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Hump day hits

* The Liberals plan to introduce a motion that would call on the government to inform our NATO allies we will be withdrawing our troops from combat operations in Afghanistan as scheduled, in February 2009. A good motion, I don’t see why the NDP and BQ won’t be able to get on board. Heck, given that the Conservatives insist we won’t be staying past then anyway they should be in favour of the motion too, right?

* The NDP has always been slightly do as I say, not as I do and their rhetoric since the May/Dion thing has been quite something, but they’ve surprised me again not just with their opposition to letting May in the leaders debates, but the condescension in their comments explaining why takes it to a new level. Red Tory and Steve get into it at length, but let me just say I once again find the NDP positioning rather pretzelish here.

Under electoral reforms that the NDP is championing the Greens would have 12 seats. But because in a system the NDP feels is undemocratic and excludes grassroots voices the Greens have no seats, they feel they should be excluded.

Now, while I support electoral reform many (most?) Liberals don’t. At least they’re honest about why, it would cost the Liberals seats, power, and hurt their chances of forming majorities. Not a particularly honourable position but hey, at least they’re up front about it.

Given the apparent gap however illustrated today between NDP rhetoric and NDP reality, one has to question just how much of their support for electoral reform is about reflecting Canada’s diversity of voices and democracy, and how much is just about gaining seats for the NDP.

* The Liberals have a new TV ad out that you can watch here (and at the snazzy new Liberal Web site). It’s a short, positive message clearly designed to answer the Con attack ads and portray Dion as a leader that gets things done. While Conservatives are unsurprisingly panning it and Liberals seem to like it, neither group is the target audience. With the target audience I think it will potentially be effective at blunting the negative Conservative messaging somewhat. A good start, nice ad.

* A press release in my inbox tells me that Water.ca will air an interview with Dion on Thursday at 9:15 am EDT on “The need for a national water policy; water issues in native communities; water usage in the oil sands and the future of North West passage” and other such stuff. So, if you’re interested in water issues (and it’s a bigger issue that you may think) might be worth checking out.

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Income trusts town hall in Toronto Friday

I'm glad to see the Liberals talking more about the income trusts issue. I think there is a lot of anger simmering beneath the surface with ordinary Canadians about the way the Conservatives handled this issue.

I also like that the Liberal Party has a solid proposal that would address the issues with income trusts and help the ordinary Canadians that got squeezed by the Harper flip-flop. Hopefully the Conservatives and the NDP, who have come out against the sensible Liberal proposal, will get on board. We all agree corporations need to pay their fair share, but Canadian seniors shouldn't be hosed.

Media Advisory

Liberal Finance Critic Hosts Town Hall Meeting on Income Trusts

Liberal Finance Critic and Member of Parliament for Markham-Unionville will hold an open house to hear from investors hurt by the Conservative Government’s decision to tax income trusts as well as Canadians concerned by the rash of foreign takeovers that have swept the trust sector since the 31 October, 2006 announcement.

Mr. McCallum will speak for 20 minutes before taking questions from the audience and media.

Mr. McCallum will also be made available to the media after the event at 1:30.

Date: Friday 20 April, 2007
Time: 12:00-1:30pm
Location: Design Exchange, 234 Bay St. Toronto, ON

For more information:
Office of the Hon. John McCallum
MP for Markham-Unionville
(613) 996-3374

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BQ goes poof!

SES asks Quebecers how they'd vote if the BQ didn't exist. Other fascinating polls Nik now has in the field:

How would you vote if there was no Liberal Party? (Sponsored by Jack L.)

How would you vote if Jack Layton wasn't so pretentiously hypocritical? (Sponsored by everyone)

How would you vote if Senator Palpatine replaced Stephen Harper as Conservative Party Leader? (sponsored by Tom F.)

I look forward to the critically important results.

In the meantime its off to Skydome tonight to see the Jays play the Red Sox (booooo!) and Japanese pitching sensation Daisuke Matsuzaka. Should be a good one, it's always fun when the Red Sox or the Yankees come to town. Hopefully the Jays can play through these injuries though, Glaus and Ryan are key guys.

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The Emmy for most understated "viewer discretion" warning goes to...

...A&E, for the following advisory they display before the re-runs of 24 they broadcast every weekday afternoon:

"This program may contain graphic violence. Viewer discretion is advised."

May contain graphic violence? MAY? It's freakin 24 man (my West Wing replacement as fav show), you can take a guarantee to the bank that it WILL contain graphic violence, and lots of it.

Do the guys that write these things actually watch the shows?

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Freakin' hilarious

It seems the battle of the spectacularly unsuccessful communications directors (Ray Heard, late of John Turner vs. Scott Reid, late of Paul Martin) has been called off, causing disappointment for tens of people with too much time in their hands.

The two were set to go Tete a Tete on Mike Duffy Live (bring your own beer and popcorn) but Reid has wisely declined, saying he doesn't want to elevate Heard...and thus making the best call of his communications career. I therefore declare Scott the winner.

Anyway, big props to Wells for this comment on the whole thing:

It does threaten to ruin Duffy's segment. Maybe Heard could appear, backed by a chorus of Jane Taber's sources, all bravely wearing paper bags over their heads and chanting, "That's right, that's right" whenever he says something dumb.

Ha, that's about right.

No one ever said the old establishment hacks would go down easy. Seeing their power and influence waning, they're putting up a fight. It's not surprising, really. Hopefully their BS will act as fertilizer for a more grassroots-driven party.

Hey, one can hope.

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Caption contests are fun

I agree, caption contests are fun. So, here we go, caption away! And same ground rules, nothing racist please!

"The koolade is over there..."

"You're squeezing me a little tight Antonio..."

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Consti-what?

Such an interesting story here with interesting comments by Mario Dumont on yet more constitutional talks (aka demands). And already rumblings they'll be looking for even more.

Interesting because I thought we'd ended this whole nation thing with Stephen Harper's motion last November. We'd never hear of this again, thanks to Harper's strategic brilliance, I thought.

Add in a federal budget that finally ended all federal/provincial bickering over money forevah evah, sending billions to Quebec to solve the mythical fiscal imbalance and let Charest cut taxes, not to mention a Quebec election result that was such a great victory for federalism and a vindication of Harper's strategic brilliance, and I thought we'd never be hearing about constitutional demands from Quebec again.

It was like Harper had landed on the aircraft carrier and declared Mission Accomplished!

OK, I never really believed any of that. Indeed, I though it was all a big load of crap, so I'm hardly surprised to be proven right. Would have liked to have been wrong though.

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Why I decided to support Stephane Dion

From Paul Wells:

“But our campaign message in Quebec is that people should vote for the candidate who's best positioned to beat the Bloc Québécois. In Sherbrooke, that's Jean Charest, not the Liberal. Don't make me campaign against Charest!"

I don't know whether he won that argument. His line of argument stuck with me. After the election, some Liberals were upset that Dion had, in general, been so reluctant to criticize Charest. One asked him a question about that in March 1998, at the cabinet-accountability bear-pit session at the Liberals' biennial convention. Hey, Dion, why so soft on a Conservative?

Dion stepped forward and prepared to make, maybe, three points. He ticked off his forefinger and began: "My country before my party." The hall erupted in a standing ovation. He looked surprised, shrugged, and went back to his seat.

My country before my party. Exactly. That's why I'm confident that, despite the comments of cowardly “senior Liberals” lamely giving anonymous comments to the media, real Canadians and grassroots Liberals will like this. Dion wasn't elected leader by these “senior Liberals”, they were largely backing other candidates. It was the grassroots that was behind him.

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What else? The Dion/May thing

I hesitate to kill more virtual trees over analyzing the May/Dion thing but I'll say this, in typical Liberal fashion: it will either go really well, or really badly.

The more I think about it though, the more I think it's a good, although risky move. On reflection I think the whole running in each riding thing is more important to politicos than it is to regular Canadians. The one part I still have trouble with is the plight of the Liberals in Central Nova, I know if this happened in my riding I'd be pissed. Hopefully I'd get over it, but I'd be pissed.

I certainly understand the objections of Liberals that have concerns with the move, like my friend Ted. I don't agree with them all, but I understand. I think though that, as I said, what we as political junkies feel is important aren't necessarily what most Canadians feel is important.

And I think most Canadians are tired of the partisanship and the rancor of three years of minority governments. They don't care about long-held political traditions, they have other things on their mind. But they do see politicians as increasingly childish, and they want to see politicians try to work together. I think they'll welcome, and applaud, moves in that direction.

If, that is, the messaging is done right here. The spin war has already begun, the battle for the hearts and minds if you will. Hopefully we can pull this one off. As I said, it will go well (seen as working together for the greater good) or it will go badly (seen as political opportunism). Time will tell.

Blowback

This certainly seems to have many grand Liberal mucky-mucks upset, given the large number of anonymous “senior Liberals” being quoted by the gossip columnists. Pretty chickenshit to be hiding be hiding anonymity to make comments like: "In Monty Python lexicon -- we are the silly party." Anyway, I'm not going to lose any sleep over this “insiders” nonsense, their motivations are far from pure.

I did laugh out loud (it deserved to be spelled out rather than LOL'd) at this line though:

The criticism from senior Liberals also focuses on what this deal says to the grassroots...

Yes, because senior Liberal insiders have always been sooooooo in touch and concerned with the grassroots before. Trust me friends, the grassroots are liking this.

That brings me to the Conservatives, who for some reason sent Monte Solberg out to spin on this one. I thought it was a pretty weak performance, and this bit was particularly amusing:

He also says Dion must explain to Canadians whether he endorses the entire Green Party platform - and agrees with them that Canada should leave the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The Tories have co-operated with the Bloc Quebecois to pass their budget and keep Parliament alive.

But Solberg quickly dismissed a suggestion that - by his own logic - that means the Conservatives could be accused of supporting Quebec independence.

"The Bloc Quebecois thinks it's in the interest of Quebec to support the Conservative budget and we agree with that. This is about Stephane Dion's leadership," Solberg said.

Yeah, hey, look over there! Sponsorship, and what not! Pay no attention to the man behind the mirror, or my logical contortions! Oppsy.

The Cons though only see this as an opportunity to gain some ground though, they don't stand to lose from the Dion/May deal.

Now, the NDP on the other hand...which would explain Jack Layton's rather angry response. Long story short, he's threatened. He needn't have been, it seems May wanted to work with him to and he refused to take her calls. One hopes if we ever see the kind of electoral reform the NDP advocates, he'd be more willing to work with the other progressive parties.

I can't blame him though for trying to maximize his gains under the current system. Disappointing, but entirely understandable. I will, however, say this. If we're picking dance partners and the Liberals and Greens are doing the tango, I wouldn't want to be the NDP left on the dance floor with the Harper Conservatives...

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Feeling unsafe in my own home-I don't like it

Toronto had its 17^th and 18^th homicides of the year last night. Here's how a CTV Web story describes #17:

…around 10 p.m. Thursday, emergency crews attended to a man who had been shot in the stomach at an east end apartment building.

He later died after being rushed to Sunnybrook hospital. The name of the man, who was in his 30s, has not been released.

A short report, another Toronto murder. Except this one happened in my apartment building, on my floor, 20 feet down the fall from my front door.

I don't exactly live in a high-end building, but I wouldn't have considered it a bad building either. It's a multicultural building, lots of new Canadians, lots of families. Low to mid income. There's a daycare on the ground floor, and an elementary school across the street. Just a 10 minute bus ride from work.

I've never felt unsafe there before. And my hall in particular has always been quiet, until a young couple moved in down the hall a few months ago that always seemed to have screaming fights, at the top of their lounges. One of them called the police out once.

I'd learned to tune them out, and I figured that it was just another fight when I heard some loud yelling last night while surfing the blogs on my laptop and half-watching hockey on the tv. My ears did perk-up a little when I heard what sounded like a bottle smashing followed by a bang.

I was more peeved at the thought of having to navigate broken glass in the morning in the hall though. I figured the bang, which didn't sound that loud, was just the door slamming. Door slams were a regular part of the fights I'd tuned out. It wasn't until later I learned it must have been a gun shot.

That was a little while later, when the lights started flashing out in front of the building, and paramedics and police officers descended on the hallway. As the story says, the guy was apparently alive when they wheeled him out but died later at Sunnybrook. Officers questioned the neighbors and I tried to get to sleep around 1:00 am.

I woke-up in the morning and got ready for work and eager to get the heck outta there, but hearing talking in the hallway I was a bit frightened to leave. I swallowed and did, finding six or more detectives and officers on folding chairs in the hallway having a meeting. Most of my hall was taped-off, all the fire doors caked with fingerprint powder, and a forensics van parked out front.

I got to work, did a Google news search, and found out that indeed, Toronto's 17^th homicide happened 20 feet from my front door.

As I said, I've never felt unsafe in my home before. And I don't like it. I've blogged before about the disconnect between crime statistics, which are falling, and fear of crime, which is rising. While I still don't support "tough on crime" policies that don't actually prevent crime, I do understand now the feelings and the fears that many have. Falling or not, when it happens in your neighborhood its frightening.

What's the answer though? I don't know. There's no easy answers. For me though, it's to find a new place to live and sooner, rather than later. Anyone know any nice, affordable, safe communities in Toronto?

UPDATE: The Toronto Sun has a fuller account of the incident. (h/t Joanne)

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Libs won't run candidate against May

Canadian Press is reporting Stephane Dion has decided not to run a candidate against Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in Central Nova. The Greens also won't run someone against Dion in St. Laurent-Cartierville, and May reportedly will “essentially endorse” Dion for PM, CP reports.

Wow. I'm not too sure yet how I feel about this. A first thought is I don't like the fact we won't be running candidates in every riding across Canada. We've always prided ourselves on being a national party, at times (arguably) the only truly national party out there. And I have to wonder how the Liberal riding association in Central Nova feels about this. How are Green Party activists going to react?

There's lots of reasons as a politico to be wary of this thing. But the larger question is how will regular Canadians outside the Ottawa bubble view it? Will it be seen as political opportunism? I know that's how the Cons (and I'd wager particularly the NDP) will be spinning it. But is it? I'm not so sure. Certainly it gives May a boost in Central Nova, though she still faces an uphill battle. I don't think the Greens were going to take many votes in Dion's riding, which he won handily, so little gain there. The gain for the Liberals will be in the May endorsement, whatever form that may take.

While both sides gain though I don't think you can call it opportunism. At least, not in the negative connotation that you'd be implying. Certainly not if the goal is real, meaningful action on the environment and green issues.

To that end, I'd say if we're going to do this we should go big or go home. Follow-up with a jointly developed environmental policy platform, a Green Book if you will, that both parties will take to the people of Canada and say here is why we're working together, this is what we want to accomplish.

This move has the potential to be a harbinger of a new more cooperative style of politics, and could resonate with Canadians...but only if, I think, it is followed-up with substantive policy action. Hopefully that will be part of the official announcement, or will be soon to come.

Still digesting all this though, will wait for the official news with interest.

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The Hatfields and the McCoys and the I Don't Give a Flying F*cks

You know, I was kind of hoping that after the leadership convention we had put this sort of bullshit behind us, but it would seem lately that perhaps at least some of us have not.

If I could make a public service announcement here, and I'm reasonably confident that my sentiments will be shared by a great deal of the rank and file grassroots members of the Liberal Party, this is what I'd say:

Move the **** on! No one cares about your long-nursed grudges, perceived slights, petty vendettas, and who pulled whose hair in gym class. I don't care what he said about your mom. I don't care what name she called you. No one cares! I don't care who started it. Nobody is right. You're all wrong. I'm sick to death of this Turner/Chretien/Martin bullshit. Nobody cares! Get on with your lives, or at least leave the rest of us the hell out of it because I assure you, nobody cares!

Move the hell on already!

That is all. Have a nice day.

P.S. On a (mainly) unrelated note. On the appointment of the former PQ minister to run the inquiry, the issue here is that he is a partisan, not that he's a separatist. I mean come on, we made Jean frickin Lapierre a cabinet minister and he founded the frickin Bloq Quebecois. Know what I'm saying?

UPDATE: Ted shares my sentiments.

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One down, fifteen to go

Man, I'm exhausted and I only stayed-up for the first period of overtime of the Canucks/Stars game last night. In my defence, being in Ontario that was at 1:15 am, and I do need to work today.

Four overtime periods, wow. Thank-god they pulled it out, the Sedins rocked. The four periods I did watch were great hockey, although it would be nice if the Canucks could learn how to protect a lead. I thought we had it when we went up by two.

Anyway, quite a start to the series, this one is going to be a grind. Hopefully Matt Cooke and Alex Burrows aren't injured too seriously. Cooker in particular would be a big loss.

Go Canucks!

P.S. The Sens looked absolutely dominant against the Pens. It's just one game, but hopefully they can keep it up and finally exercise some of their playoff demons.

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Politics, blogging and beer

In Toronto on May 9? What could be a better way to spend an evening than talking politics and blogging over beer? Or, in my case, rum and coke. I hope to make it out. Word is the angry man himself will make an appearance. (rsvp here)

And mesh '07 looks to be shaping-up as an other interesting, thought-provoking conference. Coyne, Feschuk and Turner on a panel? That sounds fun.

Come out with the mesh guys and get your political blog on, Toronto!

We had a great time at the first mesh meetup, but there are still a few weeks left to mesh ‘07 and we’d like to get together again. And this time, it’s political.

Blogger and National Post columnist Andrew Coyne, blogging M.P. Garth Turner, former Paul Martin speechwriter (and of late writer, humourist and blogger) Scott Feschuk and Phil de Vellis, the creator of the “Vote Different” Hillary ‘08 YouTube sensation, will be doing a panel at mesh ‘07 on what’s happening now with Politics and the Web, but let’s get the conversation started early!

Whether you’re a political blogger, party stalwart, consultant or media observer, or like us just plain fascinated by the impact that the Web is having on the way we discuss, organize and create political change, come on out and join us and folks from the Toronto Web 2.0 community on May 9 for snacks and libations at The Charlotte Room - details and signup at the Upcoming site, and please help to get the word out by forwarding this post to someone you can beat at eight-ball. Worst case, you can settle your political differences the way we were meant to - over libations and pool tables.

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Agreeing with people

A busy day at work today left no time for blogging, and I've a busy night of hockey ahead of me tonight as well (go Canucks!) so let me be lazy and point to some posts by other bloggers today that I agree with.

*Firstly, I agree wholeheartedly with Ed Hollett. Stephane, Denis Coderre needs a new job and the Liberal party needs a new defence critic.

First, there was Coderre's embarrassing verbal jousting with Gen. Rick Hillier. Now, Denis is floating the idea of building a Canadian Forces base in New Brunswick solely for native soldiers. I mean, what the heck is that about? Did he run this past anyone before flapping his mouth? What would this achieve? Does he know anything about the military?

With all that is going on in the world we need a competent defence critic. It pains me to say it, but Coderre is succeeding in making Gordon O'Connor look good.

*Secondly, I agree with Glyn Evans. Conservatives, if you want to abolish the gun registry, then abolish it. And if you can't get the votes to do that, accept the will of the majority and keep it in place and effective, and heck, maybe even enhance its effectiveness.

But playing games by further extending the registration deadline is a slap in the face to the police that use it daily because you're making registry less effective, it's a slap in the face to taxpayers because you're spending more money on a program you're purposely making useless, and it's a slap in the face to democracy because you're circumventing the will of the majority of MPs that want the registry in place and effective.

Put-up or shut-up.

*Thirdly, I agree with Dan Arnold. Belinda Stronach will be missed by Blogging Tories the most. I've always defended Stronach because I've felt the attacks on her were (not unfair, that word is verboten, let's say...undeserved) but her most lasting contribution to public life has been providing oodles of blogging material. I wish her well, and hope she'll stay active pushing the issues she was passionate about, such as one member one vote and encouraging more women to enter political life.

And speaking of blogging material, I look forward to seeing how all those Conservative commenters that have always derided Stronach as useless will now spin her departure as a mortal loss and blow to the Liberal Party.

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Win Paul Jackson's money!

Yes, that's right readers, you (yes you!) can win Calgary Sun columnist Paul Jackson's money! Or, more specifically, his RRSP package. I'm not sure of its size but I'm sure it has lots of oil stocks and hey, free money!

All you have to do is answer this simple little question Paul posed in his column this morning:

Chretien stood for nothing at all, except Jean Chretien. If you can name one substantial achievement during his term, I'll hand over my RRSP package to you.

So, dear readers, there's the challenge. I'd take up Paul's challenge myself but I'm reasonably certain my Lotto 649 retirement plan is going to pay off big time, and so I'm going to share the wealth.

Can you name one substantial achievement during Chretien's term (note to Conservative friends, I don't think Paul will accept adscam as an answer here, needs to be positive, be serious if you really want Paul Jackson's money) or even more than one? If so, post it in the comments section and answer the skill testing question*. I'll forward a list to Paul and I'm sure a cheque will soon be in the mail to the lucky reader.

Here's a hint of one possible achievement to get you started: rhymes with valanced vudget.

*Skill testing question: 27+14-5/6=?

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Stephen Harper's Conservative team

More numbers from SES Research today, and these ones are decidedly less positive for the Liberals than these. It's the infamous “Best PM” numbers, and once again Steve Harper is a run-away leader while Stephane Dion lags well back.

Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister:
Stephen Harper: 42 per cent
Stephane Dion: 17 per cent
Jack Layton: 16 per cent
Gilles Duceppe: 7 per cent
Elizabeth May: 4 per cent
None: 7 per cent
Unsure: 6 per cent

Not a good situation for the Dion Liberals. As I've said before this isn't insurmountable (particularly given the party support numbers) but, and it's a big but, we need to start turning this around soon before it does become insurmountable. I mentioned the other day how the Liberals have been unable to build their support in the party support numbers; it would appear Dion's (lack of) popularity is holding those numbers back.

I'd wager those "Not a Leader" attack ads from the CPC have found their mark. While they haven't budged Liberal support, they have weakened Dion as a leader and sapped his ability to grow the party's support. What's the answer? Hey, I think he's the bees knees so it's hard for me to say. One thing I often hear is when people see him in person, they like him, so keep getting him out there. And hope there's no election this spring.

While Dion lags his party in popularity, it's also interesting to note Harper is more popular than his party by six points. It wasn't that long ago Conservatives saw Harper as a liability, now he looks to be their greatest asset. A cautionary note, I think, on how quickly these things can change. Will be interesting to see how this might effect CPC strategy: even more all Harper, all the time?

Looking at the regional numbers (pdf), hard to find any bright spots for the Libs:

And here's commentary from SES boss Nik Nankos:

What is emerging is a situation where one leader is ahead of his party (Harper) and another leader trails his party (Dion). Of note, Harper is the second choice as the best PM among committed Liberals, New Democrats and BQ voters and the first choice as Best PM in the province of Quebec.

As shown in the previous research conducted with CPAC, Harper does well on leadership factors. From a polling perspective, Liberal ballot box support is being maintained by entrenched party support. The Conservatives are more likely to be encumbered by residual concerns on social issues (code - abortion/same sex marriage etc.).

Even with these numbers, one should exercise caution. Perceptions of leaders can turn quickly. All it would take is for one attack ad on Dion to go too far to potentially turn the numbers and change the environment.

Interesting times. I still think things are volatile. You have to remember, In our first past the post system, with 40% support winners take all. With numbers like these we may see more of a “Harper Government” and less of the “New Conservative Government”

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Raw log exports

If you're still reading after that enticing headline, I'd like to bring you this story from my hometown paper, the Comox Valley Record. It makes no sense to me that we continue shipping raw logs outside the country when they could be processed here, creating more jobs. Much of the Canadian economy is still resource-dependant, and we should be ensuring we derive maximum value from those resources.

MP calls on feds to take action
By Record Staff
Apr 06 2007

In light of the layoff of workers at TimberWest’s Elk Falls mill, Vancouver Island North NDP MP Catherine Bell is calling on the federal government to take immediate action to help protect forestry worker jobs.

“I am asking the federal government to wake up and act now to protect the jobs at Elk Falls and everywhere else in B.C. where the export of raw logs is taking jobs away from workers and causing undue suffering for families and communities” said Bell in a press release.

“Since I was elected a year ago I have heard from people in Campbell River, Courtenay, Port Hardy, everywhere in the riding really — it just doesn’t make sense to them that so many logs are being cut and yet there are less and less jobs being derived from processing that wood,” said Bell.

She said that the explanation that Elk Falls mill has to close because it can’t find logs is a difficult one for the public to swallow.

“The average person watching the logs go by on trucks can’t tell where they were cut, on private federally regulated land or on public provincially regulated land, they just see a lot of logs leaving their community.

“And they ask, how can it be that a mill in Campbell River has to close because it can’t get logs? It’s a good question, and I am demanding on their behalf, that the government provide a good answer.”
(more)

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Electoral reform and hash browns

I had a McDonald's breakfast this morning with two friends from work who are both new Canadians, and will be voting in their first elections whenever Harper brings us back to the polls, and in between breakfast burritos the talk turned to politics.

They're not too familiar with our political and governance system so I delivered a brief primer on the role of the Governor General, the Prime Minister, confidence motions and triggering elections. To avoid confusion I left out a sidebar on the King/Byng affair.

Most of the time they've been here we've had minority governments, and they both expressed that our system of governance seemed unnecessarily unstable. Since we may well soon be heading into our third election in three years, it's hard to disagree with them there. And looking back over the past three years, I think it's fair to say it hasn't been a particularly productive system of governance either.

I said that minority governments have been the exception in our history, majorities have been the norm over the years and they (if they want to be) tend to be more productive, and are certainly more stable.

As we look at recent polls however, it seems clear that we are in an era, likely to continue for some time, which will see minorities, rather than majorities, be the norm. That sets us up for more years of constant electioneering and partisanship, and little long-term thinking or actual governance. Not a good situation for the country.

Is it perhaps time in this current environment to revisit the issue of electoral reform at the federal level? The provinces are already ahead of the curve here, B.C. (last I heard) will have another referendum on electoral reform in the next provincial election and Ontario is also going through a citizen's commission consultative process.

I know the Conservatives have been making a little noise on the file, although the way they're handling it raises doubts about their sincerity, perhaps just going through some motions to try to win some support from the NDP, who have long pushed for action here.

With a majority in sight for no one, the public tiring of constant elections and no actual governing getting done, perhaps the time is right for a serious national discussion of electoral reform.

Last May, during the leadership campaign I participated in a blogger conference call with Stephane Dion. I asked him if he'd be supportive of electoral reform at the federal level, and here was his response:

"There is one strength of our electoral system, and that’s giving clear accountability lines. You know who is in power and who’s the opposition. There’s no in between. If the Liberals are in government you know who to fight or who to blame, and the same for the Conservatives when they are the government. In the PR system everybody is in the government and in the opposition at the same time and you don’t know who is responsible for what. There are moving coalitions all the time. Each electoral system has its shortcomings and its strengths, and we need to keep that in mind.

What I dislike in (the current system) though is the over-exaggeration of regional concentrations of the vote. With 50 per cent of the vote in Ontario we have been able in the past to have almost 100 per cent of the seats, and with 1/3 of the votes in the West we were unable to have a significant number of seats. It gives the sense we’re a party for Ontario and a party unable to have support in the West, when it’s not really the case.

One day, assume that you have a government elected where it is Quebec that is out of the government because of this electoral system, with 25 per cent of the vote, and the government has no or few seats on Quebec, and you have a separatist leader trying to have a referendum at the same time. This would be very dangerous for the country.

Because of that, I’m open to consider (electoral reform), and to be frank with all of you I wrote a piece…that will be published soon advocating for consideration for a system that would be very close to the German one, that means you would have a threshold of five per cent to receive compensatory seats, and the compensatory seats would be given on a PR system. I don’t have time to explain it (all) today on the phone, but I’m open…to consider a change in the electoral system.

I don’t think a (leadership race) is a good opportunity to (have that debate), but the one who will be in power will be in a position to study the results of the current consultations about that, and to have an open debate about ways to keep the strength of the current system while having some corrections for the exaggeration of the regional vote that we have now.”

I tried later to track down a copy of that paper, without success. But now that we're out of the leadership race let's have that debate. Dion says he's open to electoral reform, we know Jack Layton is, and Harper has at least been making positive noise. If he's bluffing, let's call him on it. If not, let the discussion begin.

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Latest SES numbers: No one wins

The latest polling numbers from everyone's favourite pollster, SES Research, are out this Easter Weekend. The numbers show a continuing tight race with no majority in sight for Harper, but point to potential trouble for the Liberals in Quebec.

Says SES boss Nik Nanos:

The latest SES Research poll completed this Thursday evening (April 5th) shows the Conservatives are still short of forming a majority government. Nationally, the Conservatives registered the support of 36% of decided voters followed by the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 16%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 6%.

And here's the chart, going back to the historical Liberal highs of the giddy early Martin era. Since election day, again, very little change. Indeed, it's even tighter today that it was election day: (click for the PDF)


Anyway, as I said though, trouble brewing in Quebec. Says Nanos:

However, the federal budget, Quebec provincial election results and the new advertising scandal arrest has put downward pressure on Liberal support in Quebec. The Liberals have dropped nine points in Quebec in the past 60 days. Research conducted by SES has shown that in the past there is a direct relationship between federal Liberal support in Quebec and any new revelations regarding the sponsorship scandal. It is too early to tell whether the Liberal drop is short term or not.

I'll leave the Quebec analysis to others, but it certainly seems plausible to see the latest Lafleur news this week having an impact on Liberal fortunes in Quebec. I think the rest of the country has moved on, but it may well be different in Quebec. Short term or long term though? That will be interesting. This is the one spot of hope for Harper, or for anyone, in this poll though.

Also interesting however is the rest of the regional numbers:

The margin of error is why it's important to take all these regional numbers, even the Quebec ones, with a grain of salt.

Libs maintain a strong lead in the Atlantic, but dip a bit. Interesting to see the Cons just three points up in the NDP in the Atlantic. Budget not going over well there? An interesting increase in undecideds there too.

Quebec we've discussed but the NDP up five there, is this Jack's promised breakthrough?

Battleground Ontario (TM) is super tight for the Libs and Cons, but interesting they're both taking support from the NDP. Or perhaps votes are bleeding right, NDP to Libs and Libs to Cons. A little nose holding by Dippers to stop Harper maybe, a la 2004? If so, Jack should be worried.

And lastly, the West. Off topic rant, but B.C. should be its own separate region for so many reasons I'm not in the mood to list. Anyway, Cons holding steady but the Libs gaining five, just five back. Again, Lib gains coming from the NDP and the Greens. See comments above. Still, without more of a breakdown it's tough to evaluate the significance. Factor out the large Con pluralities in Alberta though and things could get interesting. Remember , Liberal vote and seat count has increased in B.C. over the last two elections. There's hope for growth too in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. If the stars align. If.

Really though, what these numbers show is that everybody hasn't been doing a particularly good job, and no one should be in any mood for an election because at the moment, nothing would change.

The Conservatives have done everything they can to bribe, manipulate and cajole Canadians, and all the taxpayer billions have gotten them is the same numbers they had on e-day, they're treading water. The Liberals have failed to build or maintain any momentum, or capture the imagination of Canadians. NDP support has been less fluid, it has been a nearly straight line. They've got their base, but no one else is looking. Dido the BQ, and despite all the hype support for the Green Party is stagnant.

It's kind of amusing to think that all the bluster, rancor, sound and fury of the past 14 months has been for nothing. Nothing has changed. Looks like it's back to the drawing board for everyone.

To find the silver lining though (at least, I guess, if you're a Liberal, and I am, so sue me) this is still anyone's election. The Libs are only back three of the Cons, with a three point margin of error. That's a statistical dead heat. To read the media you'd think Harper was running away with it but in reality, it's anyone's game. If, that is, anyone can get their act together.

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Chow's kitty video in poor taste

In other YouTube political video news, came across a wire piece yesterday talking about a video that NDP MP Olivia Chow has posted trying to gain support for an NDP push for stricter federal regulation of pet food, in the wake of the pet food controversy of late.

The concept is good, and since our family had dogs (and a few cats) when I lived at home I'm certainly sympathetic and supportive of the message. I wrote off the ominous music at the top...do you know what's in your pet food?...as good fun and the message from Ms. Chow was fine; her playing with her cat was cute.

But they lost me at the end, when a young lady holds up a drawing of a dead cat, Xs through the eyes, and says “If you don't want your cat ending up like this, sign a petition online...”

Maybe my partisanship is clouding my judgment here, and I'd appreciate your thoughts on that. But, to me, that seems in really poor taste. I like the rest of the vid fine, and as I said, I'm supportive of stricter regulation.

But to out and out say if you don't want your pet dead... to hold up a drawing of a dead cat...I really think that crosses the line. Particularly for a video by a Member of Parliament.

I just hate to see it detract from an important message.

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They'll go positive: My ad attempt

Unfortunately I didn't have the time to take part in last week's Liblogs film festival, but with some time on my hands for the holiday I thought I'd give it a try.

There were a lot of good ads created last week, but it has been observed that many were negative ads. These certainly have their place, but I'd thought I'd try to craft a positive message. Remember I'm an amateur so please, don't be too harsh...

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Gentlemen, no fighting in the war room!

The NP's Don Martin reports the Conservatives have piously announced they're banning lobbyists from their war room.

I hope the bouncers have the rubber hoses ready in case their campaign chair tries to sneak in. No mercy!

(H/T Cynic)

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Wajid Khan IS running again

The conventional wisdom seemed to be floor-crossing turncoat Wajid Khan would not be running for re-election as a Conservative in Mississauga-Streetsville. Not sure how this news flew under the radar, or maybe I was just out of the loop, but it seems the conventional wisdom was wrong:

Meanwhile, Khan was acclaimed to run for the Conservatives just hours before the Liberal announcement. The luncheon was attended by federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Jason Kenney, secretary of state for multiculturalism and Canadian identity.

Khan told The News after his acclamation, and prior to the Crombie win, he wasn't concerned about who his Liberal challenger would be. He was upbeat and said he felt the next election would be the start of a wave of support for the Conservative party.

It's past my bedtime so I'll leave the exploration of the mayrid of issues Khan's running raises, such as re-examining the Cons sending his old election opponent to patronage heaven to clear the nomination for him, for others to dig their teeth into.

In the meantime, I'll just say Very Interesting, and Go Bonnie Go....

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Dion packs the Design Exchange

As mentioned earlier I was one of many sweaty Liberals that packed the Design Exchange in downtown Toronto Wednesday night for a rally with our leader, Stephane Dion, and the GTA caucus. In my completely biased opinion, I thought it was a success.

CP coverage on the ticker puts the crowd at about 750 people, and I'd agree with that as a minimum. The hall was packed, it was hot and sweaty. Dion was introduced by Tony Ianno, who will be trying to take back Trinity-Spadina from Olivia Chow, and was joined on stage by the other Liberal MPs and candidates from the Greater Toronto area. Bob wasn't there (Jason says he's sick) but Gerard and Iggy were along with Bonnie Crombie, who will be seeking to reclaim Khaaaan!'s Mississauga-Streetsville riding for the Liberals. So was Garth Turner, so I'm sure he'll be blogging about it soon. (UPDATE: He has.)

To the speech though. I thought it was pretty good. Style wise, despite the odd emphasis on the wrong syllable he was confident and clear, anyone who says they can't understand him still clearly just doesn't want to understand him. Also, during the leadership he had a habit of stepping on his applause lines; that problem has been solved. He's looking more comfortable.

And he did have some great lines tonight, including a few self-deprecating ones. For example, he said Toronto has 2 million people for whom English is a second language, so he feels right at home here....Toronto is also home to the advertising sector, and he's had quite a few ads made about him lately...both lines went over great, I really feel humour and self-deprecation go a long way when your opponents are slinging mud.

Content wise I'd say what we saw is likely to be pretty close to the stump speech he'll have should Harper engineer a spring election. I recognized a number of lines from his caucus rally speech last week, for example, the Clarity/Flahrety line.

I liked the narrative of the speech, and it's the same narrative we're beginning to see echoed in the party's other communications activities. To sum up, it's “A Richer Canada, A Fairer Canada, A Greener Canada.” The speech didn't shy from going hard after Harper and the Cons, and that's good. They've given us a lot of material to work with But it also worked to tie it back to our message, to our positive vision, and our positive plan. It's important we have that track and not just be attack all the time. As we get into the campaign we can flush out the broad policy brush strokes further.

All in a good night, and a good speech well received by an admittedly partisan crowd. Feels like we're turning a corner. We don't want an election, but if there is one we'll give them a helluva fight.

P.S. Video and speech text will be up on the Liberal site soon, I'd imagine, I'll add links when they are.

UPDATE: Here's the speech and here's the video.

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Dropping the ball on Vimy

I attended a Liberal rally tonight in Toronto with Stephane Dion and a huge crowd of enthusiastic Liberals, and I'll get to a report on that in the next post. First, I wanted to touch on the news that Dion won't be going to Vimy next weekend for the remembrance ceremonies.

Given the anger I expressed last week at Harper's callous refusal to invite the opposition leaders in the first place, I'd be remiss not to comment on Dion's not going, and sending Michael Ignatieff instead. Let me say strongly I think this is an unfortunate mistake, and I agree wholeheartedly with the sentiment expressed by Ted and Michael.

I mentioned tonight's rally because I thought it was going to be a wine and cheese/mixer type thing, and if I'd had a chance to talk to Dion I was planning to ask him why he wasn't going. I don't know what other commitment they have himbooked for that weekend, but I hope it's darned important.

There's nothing wrong with sending Ignatieff. He's the deputy leader. I also appreciate and respect his personal family connection. But Dion should be there too. Not sending him is a symbolic mistake. The leader should be there, paying his respects. This is above politics. It's where he needs to be. Leaders lead.

Harper was seriously wrong not to invite the leaders in the first place. We were right to call them on it, and I stand by everything I wrote on the topic last week. He had to back down, and do the right thing. With our decision now not to send Dion though, we're doing the wrong thing too. I hope that we, too, will see the error of our ways

Stephane, pack your bags for France.

P.S. The line of attack exhibited in this article today is foolish, given the fact he's decided not to go. I don't know what we hope to accomplish here. Fife is right, it's politicking all around and a pox on all their houses indeed.

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It's new if the party says it's new, Winston

What's this then, signs of independent thought in the Conservative caucus? Don't tell Steve...

Fisheries Minister Hearn questions use of slogan 'Canada's new government'

ST. JOHN'S, N.L. (CP) - More than a year after Prime Minister Stephen Harper was elected, his government continues to sell itself as "Canada's new government."

But one federal cabinet minister admitted Wednesday he avoids the oft-used partisan slogan and wonders why it's in every government news release.

"I very seldom use the term," Fisheries Minister Loyola Hearn, Newfoundland's representative in cabinet, said after a military funding announcement.

"I asked that question actually some time ago: why do we still call ourselves the new government? If it happens to be written in the script . . . I skip it, and if I'm doing my own stuff, I don't use it."

(more)

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Your Turn

Our old friend Pierre Bourque has an interesting new poll up on his Web site asking who "Citoyen Dion" should vote for in the French presidential elections. Since we all know headlines at Bourque.com are for sale (I don't fault Pierre for that, dude needs to make a living) and since polls are fun I thought I'd offer a poll of my own.

Vote early, and vote often!

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Reading comprehension

I don't expect people to agree with what I write; indeed, with conservatives dominating blogland I expect most people to disagree. Might be nice though if people actually, I don't know, READ the post before telling me how wrong I am.

Take Blogging Tory Aaron, who, in response to this post, wrote this on his blog:

Liberal Party Responds to Bad Polling Numbers
"Polls are dumb."
It’s not fair, either!

Except, had Aaron actually read the post he's attempting to mock, he'd see the poll numbers weren't bad at all. Allow me to refresh your memory:

Cons 36, Liberals 31. From the last poll, Cons down 4, Liberals up two. Since the election Cons unchanged, Liberals up one.

What bad polling numbers? Indeed, if you were to try to call these poll numbers bad for the Liberals, you'd have to call them catastrophically monumentally terrible for the Conservatives. Which he'd have seen if he'd read it, it being like the entire point of the post.

Thanks for coming out.

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West Coast threatdown: BEARS!!

Where's Stephen Colbert when you need him?

Grizzly attacks plague central coast
'We are living in a siege mentality. The bears have taken over,' Bella Coola Valley resident says
Larry Pynn, Vancouver Sun
Published: Saturday, March 31, 2007

Juanita Neidrauer got into the alpaca and llama business to feed her gentle art of weaving and spinning. Little did she know that six of her native South American animals would meet a violent end, victims of a male grizzly bear's one-night killing rampage on B.C.'s central coast.
(more)

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Freedom of the virtual press

Warning: lots of inside baseball/blog talk ahead.

Interesting little debate going on at Stephen Taylor's and elsewhere on blogging and the media, particularly on Parliament Hill. In summary:

I have a Hill pass that indicates that I have been pre-screened by security and allows me access to a variety of places in the Parliamentary district…. An official from the Press Gallery walked over and informed me that he had received "complaints" about me…. He called over a security guard to escort me from Parliament…

Now, I'm not completely unsympathetic to Taylor here. However, before I get into the issue, can I just say that I'm kind of amused with all the Conservative vitriol I read in the comments, given the "nobody cares, whiny losers" commentary we heard from these same sorts when the media was fighting their own access wars with the Conservatives? It made me smile a bit.

Anyway, as I was saying, I'm not completely unsympathetic to Stephen here. I disagree with him politically to be sure, but he takes his blogging seriously. And the media is going to have to come to grips with blogging and the new media. It's here to stay, it's not going away, and the old media are going to have to adjust. It's a new dynamic.

Now, that said, what about this particular incident? Here's a truncated rebuttal from the comments from the Gazette's Elizabeth Thompson, whose complaint apparently led to his removal:

What happened budget day had nothing to do with whether or not you are a blogger - it had everything to do with the fact that you were violating the rules that go with the pass you were wearing around your neck.

Different kinds of passes entitle the wearer to different types of access. The pass you got identifying you as part of an MPs office no doubt allows you to go some places that the media are not allowed to go. On the flip side, it does not allow you to tape or videotape people in the foyer of the House of Commons. If every one of the 308 MPs sent a single staffer to tape or videotape other MPs it would be chaos - and dangerous - for MPs and the media in the foyer.

This actually sounds quite reasonable. Before I was politically active I was a reporter in Ottawa and I covered Parliament Hill for a while, including a brief stint as a press gallery member. There are very specific rules about where you can go and what you can do. With my press pass, for example, I couldn't enter the lobby behind the Commons chamber, selected staffers could. The type of accreditation Stephen had is important here. Thompson is right, you can't have 308 staffers in there with cameras; the foyer just ain't that big.

Now, it is common practice for a staffer to record their boss' interviews with a tape/digital recorder. Usually not the opposition members, but ministers always had a communications staffer with them, recording our scrum. It's so they have a record; later, if they feel they were misquoted, they have the tapes to prove it. That's happened once or twice, I believe.

I don't ever recall, however, staffers recording scrums given by a member of another party, presumably for oppo purposes. I may be mistaken, but it's never something I've seen. Listen in from a respectful distance, maybe, but not actually in the scrum or participating.

Now, from a technical perspective, there are two kinds of scrums. There are three mics set up with pool cameras, MPs can go to these if they wish and the feed is shared. In theory all parties could access the pool; however there may be legal issues about using it for partisan advertising without permission. That's been an issue lately. For a gotcha however, it'd be fair game.

Then there are the more informal scrums, just randomly in the foyer as everyone crowds around and jockeys for position. Often scrums are mobile, as the member answers a few questions as they move to the doors surrounded by the pack. Chretien rarely scrummed when I was there, and before my time, dido Mulroney. They'd stair scrum, standing halfway up the stairs to their office, if they heard a question they'd like they'd turn and answer it. These aren't accessible by the pool feed; it's everyone for themselves, although the Broadcast News footage would be available.

But back to Taylor, it all comes down in my view to his accreditation. How was he accredited? Clearly, he wasn't accredited as media through the PPG or this wouldn't be an issue. If he was accredited as a staffer or a CPC researcher, then the terms of that accreditation would be different, and commensurate with the duties of that supposed position. If his activities weren't compatible with the terms of that accreditation, his removal from the area was entirely appropriate. Staffers are staffers and media are media. You can't backdoor your way into becoming media through a staff pass.

But are bloggers media?

This is a whole other question. From the sound of his activities, it seems like he should have applied for media accreditation. Why didn't he? Because media accreditation is done by the PPG, he knows full well they'd have turned him down flat. If I went as a blogger, they'd turn me down too.

And it wouldn't have anything to do with his being a Conservative, or my being a Liberal, but rather with us both being partisans. I suspect they'd also have the same reaction though to a strictly non-partisan blogger.

While they're a little more discretionary with a day press pass, membership in the PPG is very strict. As a freelancer IIRC you need at least three regular clients, and letters from those editors attesting to the relationship. As a staff reporter, a letter from your editor. All f/t applications are considered for approval by the gallery executive.

I think some level of controlled access should be granted to bloggers, but the question is what level and who will administer it?

First, I think the number of bloggers accredited to the hill needs to be capped. Media accreditation is limited and controlled, so should it be with bloggers. Space is limited. But who governs it? If you say the PPG, they'll recoil at any partisanship. But if you say the parties should provide a list, then you're tacitly saying bloggers are political hacks.

There has to be a middle ground somewhere. A limited number of bloggers, with slots for different political persuasions and neutrals, granted limited media accreditation (foyer and press theatre access, but hot room off limits). There would need to be selection criteria to ensure they're a serious blogger. And there would need to be a code of behavior to govern blogger conduct on the Hill, in press conferences, and so forth.

We should be able to find some kind of middle ground here. But, rather than kicking-out interlopers or trying to backdoor media access through a staff pass, we need to start having the conversation.

The media govern themselves on the hill, is the answer perhaps some kind of pan-partisan Parliamentary Blogger Press Gallery?

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He's Bizarro Stephen!

Anyone else find it strange the Steve Harper Conservatives are dumping billions in Quebec and attacking the Liberals for being spendthrift fiscal conservatives?

It must be because...He's Bizarro Stephen!


Yeah. Like Bizarro Superman. Superman's exact opposite, who lives in the backwards bizarro world. Up is Down. Down is Up. He says "Hello" when he leaves, "Good bye" when he arrives.

I'd go with the Star Trek evil mirror universe theory, but no one is sporting creepy evil goatees...

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Questioning the pundit establishment narrative

Polls are dumb...However, I'll mention this latest one from Ipsos just to raise a point.

Ipsos, you may recall, had the post-budget poll that had it Cons 40%, Libs 29%, causing much Conservative gloating and Liberal nervous nellying. As was warned at the time however, taking a poll the day after a budget is dumb, and misleading. With the dust having settled, Ipsos how has it at Cons 36%, Liberals 31%. In other words, it's back to a horse race, as it has been all along.

But, more interestingly, take a look at this Ipsos chart, which quite usefully includes their historical polling numbers right back to the last election:


Take a look at the change between Election 2006 and today, some 14 to 15 months later: Cons unchanged, Liberals up one, NDP down two, Greens up four, Bloc down three.

Yes, some 14 months after the last election the Cons are exactly where they started, and the Liberals are one only point better.

Now, consider what has happened over the past 14 months.

For the Liberals, after a dispiriting election loss, Paul Martin resigned as Liberal leader. Bill Graham tried to hold down the fort in the HoC while the leaderless Liberals launched a marathon leadership race. Finally, four months ago Stephane Dion took the helm, finally allowing the party to turn from internal matters to holding the Cons accountable.

For the Conservatives, their re-election campaign began 14 months ago, with every move carefully choreographed by Doug Finley and the PMO. Two budgets have unloaded billions more in taxpayer dollars than the Liberals ever dreamed of. They've cut the GST and tried to buy off parents with taxable "child care" cheques. They've staged countless taxpayer funded photo-ops. A chicken in every pot, with a side of mashed potatoes and a biscut.

And, after all that, where are we? Cons unchanged, Liberals up one.

The media narrative

Despite all that, the focus in the media and among the punditry has been on the Liberal Party's poor performance in the polls under Dion. And I have certainly been among those raising issues because while as we can see things are far from lost, treading water is not acceptable and I think we need to do some tweaking to our strategy if we're going to start building more support.

But there's a BIG question that seems to be going completely un-discussed. It's not even mentioned. But I think it's far more relevant. Why, after 14 months as Prime Minister -- 14 months of patronage, pork barrel politics and shoveling billions of taxpayer dollars off the back of a truck – why, as these numbers show, has Steve Harper utterly, spectacularly failed to build Conservative support even a little bit?

UPDATE: For some reason, comments were ticked off. Apologies, it's now ticked on.

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Something I've been pondering

I've been mulling this question over for some time, and I'd appreciate your thoughts.

Say you're the Conservatives. You're desperately trying to grow your base to get a majority in the next election, and a big part of that is reaching out to multicultural and ethnic communities. You take that outreach so seriously you've put one of the leader's top lieutenants, Jason Kenny, on the file.

So, given that outreach, and its importance to your majority dreams, is it going to help or hinder your case to spend so much time and energy attacking a guy because his mother was born in another country, or because he talks with an accent?

If your parents are from another country, or you have an accent yourself, would this make you feel more or less welcome in the Conservative fold?

P.S. Cozying-up to these guys can't be helpful either.

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Breaking: Emerson re-crossing the floor

I've been working this story for a week and I'm now finally able to break it: former Liberal and current Conservative cabinet minister David Emerson is (re) crossing the floor.

There have been rumblings of Emerson's discontent with Steve Harper and the Conservative government, culminating in a reported meeting meeting recently between Emerson and a senior advisor to Stephane Dion, where Emerson reportedly expressed his desire to return to the Liberal fold.

With his overtures soundly rebuffed however, Emerson is not returning to the Liberal fold.

After intense negotiations, I have learned that NDP leader Jack Layton has called a press conference for Apr. 1st in the National Press Theatre in Ottawa, where he will introduce David Emerson as the newest member of the NDP caucus, and the NDP candidate for Vancouver-Kingsway in the next federal election.

Sources close to Emerson tell me David feels the NDP offers him the best shot at re-election in his riding. Also, with the strong showing of the ADQ in Quebec, Emerson feels the NDP is ripe for an electoral breakthrough and he's sure to reclaim his deserved cabinet car and driver.

If this story is subsequently reported on television, radio, in a newspaper, or on an MSM website, please give proper citation to this blog.

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